February Monthly

 Did not have a lot of time last month for anything other than family. Wanting to get a headstart on some questions that need following up on from yearly.

1. Process for profit taking

    -overext? Too far too fast?

    -How much size cut where and when

-Im pretty happy with my process for taking off. I Get in with OG entry, momo adds if there is momo. 1st significant level break I take off last added momo on micro pb, 15sec candle break usually. If not then on crazy move and 1st tick after PT break. Then 2nd momo adds I take off on 1min candle break. And If I had a 3rd momo add I keep it alongside OG entry to exit based on change of character. Trend break or significant MA reclaim. 

2. Find better way to record stats on momentum adds and risk levels. Separate OG stop level, risk, and Momo stop level, risk.

-This I did last month. It is obviously important to record them separately because they have separate risk locations and expectations. New stat spreadsheet is great to take deeper look into OG entries and MOMO adds. 

3. 1Hr chart significance with 9/20 at open or later in day.

-Its become apparent all my trades have at least the 9 right at price I want to trade. If not, then trade is too far too fast and needs time before I take.

4. More detail on type of trade I am taking. Top bottom 2nd day pre breakout etc. 

-I have prepared a new blog post analyzing winners again with relation to new conditions I am recording. At end of month ill do it and add to it at end of March

I also did a bit of digging into stats again and found out something significant. 

Looking at cents at risk stats and premium numbers 

If I have to risk more than .30 cents, its not worth it.

If premium is more than 2, it must be only .30cents risk max.

1st week

Relatively boring weak. Didnt trade 2 of the days but had great setups on DWAC and BBY to close out the week with big wins. 

Took very good trades. ADBE weakest of the 5, removed from watchlist. 

GME great start, but volatile, ripped up super fast after big flush, ended up giving back a large portion of big win. Happens sometimes, nothing to be done about that one.

PDD very patient waiting for it to be crystal clear and got it good. 2hrs into day tho not much momo on the name, took a small W out of it. Not patient enough to hold it, took far too long to do anything. 

DWAC and BBY both great reclaims of vwap, slight couple minute hold, then took off for me. Good trades, good management. 

Only 1 mistake on the week, took off DWAC momo too quick. Other than that great week of patience.

2nd Week

Big decision week. SPY and Q in middle of range. Breaks one way or the other can result in big moves from this original giant flush from ATH. 

EXPE was a great setup with clear long range under vwpa, ticked above in and added with slight momo but failed right away. Was fine.

Tuesday was bad, 

TSLA got away from me. Risk was way to large and uncertain on trades at the bell. Took a big L to start the day.

Then it reset and retested vwap. I blindly got in off vwap reject from above and added momo lots asap. All within a minute. I needed to let it play out and give me a candle. I was way to early on that trade and if I did it properly, waiting for that candle to close and give me a low, I would have skipped the whole trade.

MSFT was A+ looking with market conditions looking prime for a rollover lower, and it did, but shortly got bought up and ripped. I did not cut breakeven/small profit as I should have. Being down big and out of BP I wanted big win here and now to get it back. 

TSLA again got me but its my own fault for holding too long and hoping. Was a fantastic looking setup that didnt go and I held momo anyways taking way larger of a loss than necessary

Friday again worked well for me. Had a few small scalp wins on INTC that didnt run for me. SPOT clear short that I stay very patient with. No BP for momentum and thats probably a good thing as its low vol. But ended week on a positive note.

Unaware of true risk, entering without seeing clear setup, not manging trade loss well and cutting fast were 3 biggest mistakes. 

3rd Week

Dead week. Slow. Made money but its tough out there waiting for what I need to see.

Got a bit chasey and sacrificed quality. Of course lost. 

The wins I did get were great.

I am not swinging hard enough. Trust is an issue, I know I can do this well. Offense.

4th Week

Not really worth talking about. 

0 trades. Major disctractions.

NUMBERS

-7$

+5R

31/70 44% WR

55 A Grade 79%

2.86 Emotional Grade

77% Compliance

Of 39 losses, 15 full -1R, 7 more than -1R

4 -1R$

Avg win 67$, Avg loss -50$

Compared to Janurary, performance was better, but intraday trade was smaller, contracted. 

Things didnt run as much and it makes sense given the chop on most days and gaps.

This month was pretty dumb. Not clean and clear conditions. Not clean and clear day to day routine. 

PROBLEMS

-Oversized, unaware of true risk. Laziness, accountability, Gambling.

-Settling for less intraday. Not waiting for it to be clean and clear around levels. In too early around no HTF significance. 

    -Not letting it reclaim vwap 1st. 

-Taking B setups. Intraday and Daily

    --Not letting it reclaim vwap 1st. 

-Ignoring momo rules, too slow to cut. Holding hoping. 

-Distractions. Missing clean and clear. 

I look at my red days, a lot of mistakes I made, but also a lot of normal losses. Market conditions did make a difference this month. Which means I have to be very concious I am trading with the market and not against it.

Not my ideal conditions, not easy everyday to find winners. But not an excuse to end this month green and make money still. Opportunities were there but I had to be on my patient A game everyday.

My biggest losses were on TSLA, accounting for 1/3 my losses this month. Just 3 trades. 

There was not a real common theme in my mistakes this month. Just 1 thing here, 1 thing there. 

The common trade performance error was selection. I think I got a bit eager to trade because I wasnt trading that much, I was settling for lesser daily setups, and then making it worse, intraday setups. Not High probability trades.

The common Emotional error was greed and discipline. Thats from taking trades I shouldnt, and holding trades I need to cut. 

Im looking at more numbers and im seeing I am getting a decent amount of +TradeR MFE, but im barely capture half of it, more often than not, its only capturing a third. So I am really leaving money on the table. 

TRUST

VWAP is the key. I am a great vwap trader. Maybe I should say, I am great at recognizing market opportunities around vwap when they are given. 

All of my missed trades this month came from tight range around vwap. 

All of my wins came from tight range around vwap

Preparation. I need to have my star rating and ranking ready to go. I need to know where to swing the hardest.

I can do this. I repeatedly see my watchlist stocks make great moves in areas I anticipate a move from. I repeatedly catch those moves. I do not catch them with size. My trading is good enough to make money, but not sizing in the best setups is what prevents me from REALLY making good money. 

My losses are not my biggest problems. My wins are my problem in the sense im not pushing hard enough when I see it. I trade to win and make money. I need to be sizing up to make the most out of it and start seeing my risk on winners larger than risk on losers. 

STAT REVIEW

Im still doing a lot of analysis on winners, Adding new variables here and there. Ive got a large chunk of work done but I still want this next month worth of data to get a better idea. Ill go over that all in the 1st quarter review

RECAP

Selection slipped, settled for less on daily and intraday

Risk was a little shaky. Not consistent. 

VWAP is the key to all my winning trades. Trades must be from vwap. SIZE must be from vwap.

Market direction is important. If market is not with bias, setup must be A+, later in day, rel strength/weakness

Trust in my process. Be prepared to swing hard to make it. 

Not capturing 50% means I am slow to take profits. 

It was a hard month. No excuses. Be prepared to do nothing for longs periods of time and never sacrifice quality just to trade. 

SOLUTIONS

I wont sit here and rail myself into thinking I need to take drastic measures to improve my trading mistakes. The mistakes were not common, not consistent and not repetetive. 

The solution is bringing my A game every day. A consistent routine that I can fall into place everyday.

And let me tell you, my life right now is NOT CONSISTENT at all. It is very hard to get into the zone every morning and bring that A game. But I try. I am here every morning. I know what I need to trade and what I need to see to trade. 

There will be little mistakes here and there but I know im improving still. Compliance jumped to 4/5 trades are compliant. Thats a jump from 3/5. Given I am more critical of my mistakes I make, and my selection and trade amount dropping dramatically, thats a big plus. Something to be happy about.

Just need to keep showing up. I know what I do well, do only that. 

I continue to analyze my trades for further elimination and expansion of what is working best.