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Showing posts from January, 2021

JANUARY MONTHLY REVIEW

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 Very good start to the year. Excellent market conditions, excellent reads. Clear themes, lots of volatility. Seems like a great indication of whats to come. NUMBERS +$18,950 +111.4 R 53/114 37% WR 81% Compliance 43 -1R 23 More than -1R Avg Win  +$540 Avg Win Risk $137 Avg Loss -$106 Avg Loss Risk $126 P/L Ratio 5.08 Avg Risk $130 Expectancy $131 10 Winning days Avg Win Day +$2275 Avg Loss Day -$552 So let me start by saying I love options. I switched this month to trading the way I feel like trading. That meant abandoning trading shares. Giving up on scalping and trading based off of daily charts, and changing my expectations from short holding periods, to longer holding periods.  Trading options allows me to trade the action of the stock, rather than the price of the stock alone. When I traded shares I was obsessed with the pennies. I could not, for years, let myself trade allowing the stock to explore past my stop level to see if it would fake out or not. I went back a...

State of the market 1/19

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 I do not have a lot of time this weekend to make a bigger post so im going to shorten this one up. SPY QQQ DIA IWM had there 1st sign of a pullback this friday. Broke under the previous range and tested lower. Had weak open and weak close. Im thinking we have a short at gapping lower and testing lower again VIX continuing to get tighter, had a nice pop on friday going into mini breakout levels into TL.  FNGS continues getting tighter relative to SPY. Gotta make a move one way or the other.  MGC a similar pattern Tech is not a pretty sight, Looking like a failed breakout. Rolling back under with TL loss.  Communications industry breaking big time zone. But look at how little that volume is. Comparing to others, what should one expect from this. Internet index also looking like a rollover happening into TL.  Financials reaching new ATH from 08 crisis is a big deal. But again look at that volume. This is a monthly chart so im a bit ahead of myself, but considering...

VXX / SPY Swing

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  We just look like were ready for something. Yesterday, the 14th, after charting, saw a lot of weakness. SPY tight range, same as QQQ, clear level of breakdown, would be followed by a ton of bo levels one right after the other. Started building a position at the open, adding with market weakness. Got big flush and took off some size into the moves. Retraced to vwap and market had low vol, considered low vol pb, and added back into vxx. Puts are coming into this market huge. Thinking we can really see some damage here. And if not then ive at least got a decent win on this so far.  Added again as market turned lower, should be turning point if we are going to see something really special today. Everything is showing me signs we do want lower.  Bailed as it reclaimed vwap and didnt see reject. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RE entered at the close. Most vol is done at the open and the close. Bot...

RKT Swing

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  Original entry failed and bailed as we dropped, reclaimed though with good volume. Reset and made nice flag with super tight range, another filed dip lwoer then breakout higher, in and added. 

CNK Swing

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  Clear flag to start day, entered and added on break and momo. Took off to 19. Looking for this to get to bigger bo level to take off.  Held strong all day, stopped right at huge bo point. Looks A+ for huge move. 

OSTK Swing

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  Eyeing this one for a long time. Strong open to trigger my alert, Got lucky with waiting on pb back to vwap and prev hi level. In and added. Strong breakout, slowly giving it all back though. Turned to vwap and perfect vshape. Wanted adds but not fast enough. Took off for new HOD making ATR move into major TL. Waiting for much more here, want 69

Airlines Swing

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  UAL and AAL, Airlines been very tight for sometime now, making falling wedges.  I just happened to be looking at them at the exact right time. I noticed JETS had calls come in, UAL and AAL were at great spots with back testing old bo zones.  I saw JETS had big buying at its bottom + TL S and that was my cue to start looking. We started curling up and I got in both and added same times. Went parabolic. Huge move right to new HOD and starting D breakouts. Took off some because I need to take some gains now locking in at least a breakeven trade. I am big.  MY 1 AND ONLY CONCERN. Is DAL has earnings tomorrow. Most certainly will influence what is to come.  Made a 2nd run up with big vol.  3rd run up into the bell, closing just short of HOD. We will have to see what tomorrow DAL earnings brings up. Technically speaking, we look great for more uspide.  2nd Big gap up, took off on weakness as soon as we found 1 min top to start day, both moved higher, took ...