Trade Review 2024
Goal here is to find what winners and losers have in common. Eliminate what isnt working, do more of what is.
Winners
What is MAE on wins that breached prev LOD?
-Only 14% of wins went past prev LOD. 2 of them a tick or two.
- .56R
- -118$ against
-These are also on older trades. My newer swing trade wins never had a single one.
-Very clear that my wins never go past prev LOD.
Losers
Biggest losses, risk incorrect? Did I just not get out? Loss of vwap and lod and 1hr 9/20ma are all signs of weak and fake strength
-Lots of losses are due to the following
-Being up +1R and not bailing at breakeven. 36% of losses hit +1R
-Net -$5921
-MFE +$18448
Flat out embarassing. At a minimum if I followed my rules I would be up nearly $2000 on these trades alone.
-Settling for less. During review I took a lot of trades with declining MAs, some at random dips. Not a lot in my favor to catch a wave.
-Some numbers are very obvious in what my winners have that my losers dont. I list all at bottom but the biggest differences are..
-Sata Score >60%
-Winners 62%
-Losers 24%
- Previous Weekly Candle Green
-W 78%
-L 47%
-Rising W/D/4hr/1hr 9ma
-W 75%
-L 58%
-Above Several Anch Vwap or Top Most Anch Vwap
-W 81%
-L 53%
-9/20mma Tight
-W 43%
-L 16%
-In summary, my wins are from strong performing industries, Weekly momentum, Rising MAs, Near top of large ranges, and long periods of consolidation.
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MAE and Total Loss. How close are they. If I took at max loss should I have waited for eod close or 1hr close
-I dont think this matters. Too many times this past month I have held trades past stop point to wait and see if it will come back in my favor. Thats not a good mindset. As I have seen from winners, I dont have to worry about my stop coming into play at all. If a trade gets to my stop, its an 8% chance to do so. Why hold onto a bigger loser in the off chance it becomes an 8% winner.
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-47.
-64% of losses at -.9R or worse
-Average is 86% NetR to MAER so not much discrepancy there.
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MFE on trades with 50wma / 50dma NOT involved
-Wma With +.9R
-Wma Without +1R
-Dma With +1.2R
-Dma Without +.8R
-Can see that the 50dma involved in trades clearly led to better performance. Lets check winners too
-Wma With +4.6R
-Wma Without +4.1R
-Dma With +4.6R
-Dma Without +3.9R
Fascinating better performance with both.
Then lets see trades that have both involved.
-Winners +5.5R
-Losers +.9R (Only 3 trades)
Another variable that makes a difference in trade perfomance found.
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Stats on above 50dma and MA curl and in order
Losers
All 3 23
-MFE +1.1R
-MAE -1.1R
1 or 2 32
-MFE +1R
-MAE -1R
None 20
-MFE +.65R
-MAE -1.05R
Needs to be taken with a grain of salt. A lot of these losers I held past my stop so of course leads to larger MAE.
But it is clear that in terms of MFE they run a bit farther the more they have in favor
Winners
All 3 15
-MFE +4.4R
-MAE -.45R
1 or 2 14
-MFE +5.15R
-MAE -.4R
None 7
-MFE +2.3R
-MAE -.53R
Another one to add
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Notes:
There are a lot of losses that accoridng to my rules should have ended small wins instead of losses
-Rotate rows around from losses to wins and look at stats that way to see if any major % changes
-After putting all +1R MFE losers in the win section heres what comes out
-W Candle Green drops 78% to 70%
-50wma involved drops 38% to 29%
-Above 50dma rises from 70% to 75%
-Rising MA stats remain unchanged (2%/3%)
-Internals helpful rises 41% to 48%
-Day of internals ADD/Q above 10 jumped 10%
-SATA score >60% dropped to 46% from 62%
-Nearly all history/chart score variables dropped a few %. Nothing notable.
-In summary here it looks like I just added a bunch of B/B+/A- grade setups to the winners.
Losses say a lot of big wins at one point, why did I hold so long, not take at b/e, plan between invest/pos trade/swing trade what was plan
I am caught up in holding on to my idea more than my money. Take and keep my money. Idea can reset. Ideas dont make money, buying selling does. You can always get back in.
Lots of losses are with declining 9/20dma or on random dips.
Rising MAs seem to be a big deal
A lot of 'why am i taking that trade' in June
Losses need to be taken at stop location.
-8% of winners hit stop and came back to be winners.
Mistakes
-Taking trades with no obvious pattern
-Buying random dips and adding into them
-Holding through earnings
-and NOT getting out B/E
-Starting to get trapped in the idea thinking in terms of $$$. Think in terms of R.
-Hold losers past stop for chance of retrace
FINDINGS
Selection
-Sata Score >60%
-Winners 62%
-Losers 24%
- Previous Weekly Candle Green
-W 78%
-L 47%
Rising 9ma
- Rising 9Wma -Rising 9Dma -Rising 9 4hrma -Rising 9 1hrma
-W 75% -W 70% -W 76% -W 73%
-L 55% -L 50% -L 58% -L 68%
-50WMA involved
-W 38%
-L 20%
- Undervalued?
-W 68%
-L 51%
-Queries 70%+
-W 76%
-L 55%
-Industry Strong
-W 68%
-L 43%
-Above Several Anch Vwap or Top Most Anch Vwap
-W 81%
-L 53%
-Above All MAs
-W 57%
-L 40%
-9/20wma Tight
-W 65%
-L 47%
-9/20mma Tight
-W 43%
-L 16%
-All MAs Curl Higher
-W 73%
-L 51%
-All MAs in order
-W 43%
-L 28%
-Top of VA
-W 89%
-L 67%
-Failed BO opposite Direction
-W 95%
-L 80%
-Avg Rel Str
-W 1
-L .97
-LT Rel Str
-W 1.01
-L .94
-ST Rel Str
-W 1
-L 1
-Rel Str Score
-W 8
-L 7
Performance
-The 50 dma and wma being near/on price or touching prev days candle lead to better trade perfomance.
-Above 50dma, All MAs curling higher, All MAs in order leads to better MFE.
-Internals clearly helping also adds a boost to trade performance. Led to less drawdown.
Solutions
Selection is biggest issue. Doesnt matter how I manage a trade if its a bad pick its not going to do anything for me.
Taking money off the table at +1R will keep me green month to month. If the market gives me more then so be it.
Not taking my trade off at my stop loss is killer.
Not keeping a win after +1R is killer.
Prev D HOD is best case for entry point. If I am entering ahead of that based on MAs that is completely fine. But size has to start small and build higher and bigger as it proves itself. Rising MAs is also a must to be getting in early.
Going to write on marketboard "An A+ Trade wil have...." and list out all the above findings so its in my face at all times.
Overall on the year im up $4k, not great not bad. The biggest issue is psychology and failing to take seriously that these trades are swings and not investments. I stayed at the table way too long.
2024 was the hardest year of life by quite a bit. House renovations, Baby #2 born, 67 day stay in the NICU. Life. Baseball. Extra lessons for firstborn. More renovations. More family vacations. Lack of giving myself a routine I can be comfortable with.
Going into 2025 looks much better. Things have calmed down a lot, ive done the work to see where my trades need to be. Time to get after it.
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