Analysis of My Early Morning Trades

Time to do some data digging. Im noticing I am losing a lot of trades in the 1st 30 minutes of the day. However im also seeing that when I do get a win, its a pretty good one. So they seem to be make or break at the moment. I want to look at each individual time ranking stats (1= 1st 5 mins, 2 = 835-845, 3=845-9) and see if anything sticks out.





Pretty surprised here. Was almost positive they were going to be below average but oddly enough compared to the rest of the times the first 15 minutes of the day I am actually trading my best.

Obvious place to start looking, is all the trades in the 1st 5 minutes and see whats in common.

First up is a BBBY trade

30min
And Daily

Notes
         -Vol the day before was a huge key. Notice on 30min chart that huge ramp up into close
         -Monster trendline from 2 months ago
         -Not ATL, but 25yrlow (whats the difference)
         -Pmkt action is there. Not a trend, not a lot of action, but still there and HOLDING above HTF                        level
         -SPY that day had a MONSTER 10point gap up over the weekend.
         -Lots of bullish points here

Oddly enough that same day I had another one. BLUE

And even more odd is that it is almost the exact same setup.



No premarket action. No previous trading day volume spike. SPY still in effect helping.

Didnt scalp it which is a mistake. No trend = no LT early in day.

AMAT


         

Problem here is I took the scalp into  the HTF level. Early day, SPY no trend, wasnt gapping up big, had no intraday strength. No reason to assume its going to blow through. As tempting as it looks, it should have been an avoid. 

2 HTF setups in one. A higher high and a TL break.

NFLX




This was during NFLX monster run up

-pmkt trend holding under HTF short level. 
-At open came up retested and failed. 
-just like BBBY, 1st chance for longer term trades to be taking profits on a new HTF change (TL break)
-SPY gap up, but also broke down and lost significant levels

Also counts as 2 since I added. 

The other two actually happened today on DIS and SNAP.


DIS was a bit of an odd case due to after/premarket hours making highs, but real time hours not. 108.50 being main level to watch for break. 


Again clear premarket trend, holding just under main level, but above a lesser one. Just busted a minute before the bell so missed it and went for the other one higher. 

SNAP same case 

Just building right underneath the level. Was a loss, but still a common theme. 

So the obvious commonalities

-Premarket trend showing signs of strength.
          -Either holding above/below significant level
          -Repeatedly coming into contact with level
-Very clean and clear Daily chart patterns.

If I dont have those, I dont have a good opening scalp.

So now what about the other 25 minutes of the 1st half hour.

I know my trading has not been that compliant as ive struggled to follow my rules. But to see a 64% WR drop to 21% just over the course of 15 minutes seems like something may be up.

Ive got 48 trades to look at so im not gonna link every single screen shot, but ill list the things I see in common again.

In fact, theres probably a way for me to type up a formula to show me my compliance % for each time slot before I go over that.

Easy. Well only 7 trades in time slot 1. 1 was too big, 1 took ahead of HTF level, into it. 1 didnt take profit correctly. The other 2 though are relatively on par with where I usually am ~75%. So while im a little less than average from 845-9, im doing pretty good from 835-845. (I did it for 9-930 and with 51 trades my compliance is at 54%. Clearly something wrong there.) 

2 = 11 scalps, 9 LT, 5 Other
3 = 10 scalp, 9 LT, 4 Other

Not much difference.


2 Winners (16)
         -Matching SPY (5)
         -Clean and Clear PA (8)
         -Daily Chart multiple setups in 1 (6)
         -Volume (6)
         -Failed move opposite direction (7)

2 Losers (9)
         -Non compliant (3)
         -Didnt follow SPY (4)
         -No Clear Trend (1)
         -Chased (2)
         -Meant to be a loss (6)

Really not bad stats here. Things that should help, help. Sometimes youre just meant to take a loser. Nothing really sticking out besides the clean and clear price action. Some setups clearly are better looking than others and no surprise the ones that looked good mostly won, the ugly ones, mostly lost. Not being on same side as SPY doesnt seem to be a real issue. Well see what 3s got for me.

3 Winners (5)

        -Daily Chart multiple setups in 1(2)
        -Intraday failure opposite direction (1)
        -Volume (3) 
        -Clean and clear PA (2)
        -Same side as SPY (2)
        -Got lucky (1)

3 Losers (18)
        -Non Compliant(8)
        -Chased (6)
        -Took into more R on Daily(2)
        -Against SPY (4)
        -Super low volume (1)
        -Stock not on same side of thesis (1)
        -Meant to be a loss (3)

The theme im noticing with these losers is chasing. I am not allowing the stocks to settle and give me more price action to work with. If that stock is at the level I want, BAM, I dont care where it came from I want a piece. And I lose. I chased a lot of moves here after a relatively big move has already been made. 

Bottom line seems to be I am not ok with missing a trade that is trading at my levels. Now that ive seen screenshot after screenshot of all these losses ive taken after taking all these chase trades I have a much better picture of what I want to avoid doing.

Its not anything to do with SPY or the daily chart, its all intraday data and not being ok with taking anything less than the best. There is some sort of consolidation before everyone of my best trades. It isnt a straight line from point A to B. There is a build up period. 

I started this blog expecting me to find something related to the time period and my losses ive recently been having around early morning trades. The only thing I can say for certain is patience is key in the morning for my trades and not chasing.

No more this


And a lot more this 







So what did I learn

1st 5 minutes of the day. Best trades have
            -Premarket trades/trends that either 
                       -Clearly holding above/below HTF level I want to trade around
                       -Repeatedly coming into contact with HTF level I want to trade around
            -Right from the bell show signs on tape and PA supporting my thesis
            -Clean and Clear Daily candle setups with multiple breaks at one location

Most of my early morning losses come from chasing a move into the HTF level
Most of my early morning wins come from a slight consolidation period before the HTF level is broken, or after it is broken and PA still supporting my thesis and trading around the HTF level like it

My best early morning trades
       -Show clear PA supporting my thesis
       -Follow through immediately, 
       -Start after a short consolidation period or failure to move the opposite direction
       -Have volume cues
       -Are spotted on a Daily chart with multiple setups at one location.



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