Daily Report Card 4/27

Going to start doing these again. Finding myself super frustrated throughout the day now watching all these good looking trades not do a thing for me.  Perhaps getting back to the more in depth review everyday, rather than every week, will help me answer some problems im having.

SPY

SPY

Last week broke uptrend channel and was rising back up alongside it finding resistance at the TL. Regardless still uptrending not finding much weakness. SPYders also remaining strong looking up. SPY then broke minor downtrend line to the upside adding more bullishness after a failed channel breakdown. 

In the morning we were gapping up and above the recent balance area. All signs point higher. 

Expecting at the bell either to gap and go, or some kind of pullback to 283 and head higher.
ROKU
 
     -The Setup

ROKU had a large gap up and broke the uptrend channel to the upside signalling over extension. Cooled off for a week and we made a v nice triangle. Looking for a breakout long from the triangle at either 126 or 128.50.

These variables added a case point to my long idea.

Triangle, Breakout, Flag, HOT stock, Continuation, Value Area break, News, Short Squeeze, Above Avg Volume, D Moving Averages, Anchored VWAP from Feb highs. For a totla of 6 points to start. So this is definitely a trade I want to be a part of. 

At the bell we did not have a premarket trend but were already above 126 so I was stuck in the middle to start. I waited for some action in SPY to help determine direction to start, we tested 126 and under, came back up and made a new HOD just under pmkt highs. SPY was also trending up to start, not very clean but it was up. After seeing the rip up on ROKU with volume I wanted a long on new HOD. Just an LT to start, not a scalp. We retested vwap and came back up, I got in. We went right to 128.50 where I put my scalp order in for a stronger move higher. Volume cues and price action were great here 9/10 trade. Only thing missing was clear tape action. SPY and ROKU were about 1:1 here and SPY got rejected hard after entry. ROKU saw the same weakness and once SPY started falling back off, ROKU did the same and my scalp was a loss. I respected new rule and cut half of LT position too. We didnt hold prev HOD, we didnt hold vwap, SPY was failing still and I bailed on the other half and looked for something else. 

Just a loss. Saw what I wanted to see, Didnt follow through for me, not much else to say. Just not a winner.

Later on after my exits SPY bottomed and so did ROKU, we came right back up to HOD with HTF level and I went for the scalp at HOD. Same cues here, this time including the tape. 10/10. SPY not strong, just getting stuck at vwap so ROKU now had some relative strength. Had a nice pop, took my partial accordingly. Let small size ride as long as I could. 

ROKU had good rel S until it didnt. SPY started pushing new HOD, then again and ROKU wasnt rising anymore so now we had rel W. Last partial out on TL / pivot level break. Looked for re entry later. 

Got re entry later but I made a mistake. The best trade for me here was on the break of the triangle and the 1st pivot level. I could have scalped and LT traded it but I didnt catch it on time. I think because I missed the original best entry, I settled for less and tried it up higher. This is a problem because the 'move' already happened that I would usually look for. 

After my 1st trade exit ROKU retraced back to vwap + HTF level 128.50 and held around it. We made a nice triangle above it which shows the strength I am looking for. It did not have that significant of a move out of that triangle. SPY had made HOD but lost it and then some, came back to vwap and stalled for a while. Slowly creeping back up so trend is still up. Later SPY ripped up to new HOD and stuck it, so I saw ROKU as an opportunity to catch up to the market. When in fact its showing relative weakness now. 

This trade flat out should not have happened here. It should have been taken on the 1st break of the triangle and probably ended up a small paper cut loss after it failed to move higher so many times.

NOW

-The setup

NOW had a nice triangle and top trendline that was coming into play, struggling to make a move higher, but still holding from dropping lower. I thought if we get above the recent pivot we could see a good move higher.

Before the bell, Triangle, breakout, flag, Moving Averages, value area break, Anchored vwap from highs supporting, Failed move lower, rejected.for 4.5 points. 

Great looking start to it. Popped at open, failed dropped under, right back up, failed again lower and we start seeing price gapping up with a slight volume kick. I only go for LT here no scalp as it isnt glaringly obvious yet that there is a large volume increase. There was rel S here as SPY was sideways during entry. Had a nice 2 $ move to start, nice pullback that held vwap and the trendline and I had volume and tape confirmation so I doubled size here. SPY also moving higher and shortly after made new HOD.

Couldnt find the strength so stopped out on rel weakness now, TL break and last held low. Small loss. Good looking trade to start, just too bad. 

XLNX

-The setup 

XLNX was in contact with a huge downtrend line from middle last year. It just had earnings come out and we had a large increase in volume while rising back into ~91 after failing to hold its gap lower. Looked like a great long. 

Before I go over what I did im already noticing something here. With premarket data, XLNX has gotten above 91 several times and failed each one. And were left with some really chopping looking candles with wicks all throughout 91.50 - 91. And going back even further i see that 91.50-91 was also a few daily candles HOD back in Feb. So first and formost this trade is an ignore unless its above 92. Reason is, is im taking these longs into all of that possible unknown, but previously there for a couple months now, resistance. It would be silly of me to assume that just because its earnings and SPY is on the rise, that were going to break 91, and 91.05 and 91.20 and 91.45 and 91.50

Im not even going to bother going over my trades on this thing. Its no wonder that this stock made 7 new HOD pushes and failed each and every one of them followed by a huge selloff. This was an avoid all the way no questions about it. Got sucked in paying too much attention to last couple days price action, and ignored all of the other price action from the past month telling me its a no. All in all I left with -.7R on 4 trades.  

EXPE

-The setup

After getting crushed, EXPE made a great triangle that it broke from last week, and turned into a nice double top above the middle pivot. Initially the breakout got rejected but made it back up on friday leading me to want to take it for continuation to see maybe 70.70

Triangle, breakout, volume, value area break,fail (april 21), rejection, short squeeze. 4.5 points. 

Lots of problems here. to start, we gapped above 67.38 the breakout level so I had to wait for price action to give me some good structure to work with. We failed at the open and dropped back under but started seeing some good buying just under. We consolidated under vwap and once we got a double test above it I had a new trade location. I got in top tick, I got out bottom tick. I forgot in these instances where my SL coincides with a previous level, or TL if given enough time, that I have to wait a second and not just blindly exit my trade in front of a possible support area. SPY just made new HOD at that time so there were reasons for EXPE to continue rising. I think because it failed there I was much more so looking to exit. So what I SHOULD have done...

After recognizing relative weakness, and a failed break higher look to exit earlier ahead of SL.

Upon entry, SPY made its HOD and started pulling back. After seeing EXPE fail and barely hold above/around vwap. A break under that micro range would be a great place to exit, and look for an entry later. 

      -Failed break, SPY retrace, Not holding well, Low volume, clear range to work with. Why hold?

Instead of saving myself .30 cents I get out at the point I should be looking for an entry. (not at this time though EXPE so far has shown no signs of strength.

It does hold that TL and rises back up but now im cautious. I wait for a confirmed move before I do anything. 

But then I screw myself by taking a bad scalp up here as it gets back above. EXPE got above that last pivot level. Pulled back in to it. Held it and went higher. That alone is not reason enough to scalp here. An LT is good I am ok with that as we now have confirmed we like it up here. But we do not have enough built up pressure for me to expect this thing to blow up from where we are. There needs to be some more consolidation. 

I exit the scalp at a loss and have my LT I hold. SPY at this time made another new HOD. V strong market. 

The mistake I make here is I plan on using 67.50 as my Stop loss. There is no pivot here, its just under vwap so im not risking it off of anything other than a number that I want to use. 

What I should have done is used the most recent pullback that hit previous breakout level above vwap and turned up, as my LT stop. Which would have stopped me out anyways, BUT this stock is trading differently now. We have shown weakness, until we havent, Then we have a stronger market helping us and we are above vwap and HTF level and we have a solid bottom TL to work with that has already been tapped 4 times and held. Why not 5? 

I would have been 100% ok with me taking a LT entry at that TL/undervwap test. We tapped it and came right back up, that strength alone right there is enough to get involved on. I must have been watching something else. (useless TSLA trendline catch.)

SPY at the time of my exit was falling hard to vwap, got under and made new pivot low, but was bought up right away. At the time of TL tap SPY looks like it could have gone either way, but benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls today. 

EXPE rises again and get long again on a new high. We make HOD but cant hold it and we come back to my breakeven points. At this point im so frustrated and down a lot of money I cant think/trade straight so I just bail on it and leave it alone. 

Ended up being a great runner. From my 2nd entry, which I should have been able to hold, it ran another point and a half alongside market strength. 

Took some reversals and made some money back. Im good on my reversals still. I make money on them and catch a few everyday I know what I want to see in them, they are not the problem. The main focus of me doing these again is to drill down on my scalps and LT trades and find out why the hell I cant make money on them anymore and todays giving me a pretty good clue.

I am trying to do way too much of whatever I want in the market. I want this trade here, I wanna put my stop here, I demand to see this here, If its not here I dont want it. I am trying to control the market and I am not respecting what it is telling me. Total tunnel vision. I have to open up and realize I cannot force my will onto the market or I lose. Every time.

Take what I can get and dont bend it to what you want it to be. Respect what it is and trade what it is. Deal with the pullbacks and the losses. If I am taking the trades that I should be taking, then me trading to my strengths by implementing my new risk processes will work greatly to my advantage. If im taking dumb trades, settling for less and trading wherever and whenever I feel like. Doesnt matter how good I think my process is im going to lose. Stock selection is #1. Appropriate Risk Management #2. 

Mistakes

-Bad stock pick in XLNX. Ignoring that price action above my HTF level has already been at several times and rejected. Needed to wait for higher prices.

-Bad risk management in EXPE. 

            -Not exiting early after seeing warning signs and having time to exit.

            -Poor scalp location

            -Not planning ahead of time before entry where stop loss is, and what to expect later if it is hit. 

            -Not looking for re entry at great location.

-Too late on ROKU and chased a bad scalp. 

Goals

-Do not ignore premarket price action above/below HTF level I am looking to trade off of. Leave the trade alone if the level has already been breached. 

-Do not settle for less when looking for a scalp.

-Know where your proper stop loss is, where you should expect problems, where you should want to add