October 2nd Week

 Did not trade much last week. Focus this week needs to be on not only cutting momo adds fast, but letting them run appropriately. 

Cut for loss is turn asap + 1min recent hi/lo loss

+1R cut b/e

+2R cut positive

+3R cut +1R

Or take off on PT 1min hi/lo break

Nothing else should make me exit these adds

Monday

Gapping a bit lower, names on both sides today. Shorts do look better but nothing is spectacular A+ out here. 

IBM and C both triggered at bell

IBM great attempts but getting stuffed to LOD not losing it yet.

C good move higher. 

Both completely lost it., Stuffed so hard so fast lower out. 

KSS rel weak, came into vwap and htf d and b, stuffed lower saw sell on tape in and added. Needs to lose it, no market help no extra special conditions for sell here. 

Cant lose it, seeing good signs stuffing buys lower. Waiting. Market still straight up. Pulled up some

And lower again for LOD test. Needs to go or bail. 

Spiked up, cut momo, 

Got above vwap, no quick reject, out. 

And just like that im out of BP. Funds not settling I guess due to bank holiday so im done. 3 losers. 

Clear winners on JKS LVS and ARRY which I was watching, I just happened to pick the wrong ones to trade it seems. 

ALSO IBM and C were not BO trades. They were pullback trades. LVS ARRY JKS were breakout trades. I think given premarket gap down, but trend higher into bell. Taking pullback trades is not the best route for me to trade at the bell. 

The breakouts worked great. Still ripping now but Im not in anything. 

Tuesday

Market looking choppy. Only 5 shorts on watch. Ping pong premarket. 

MU right at bell, in and added momo. Super quick dump, took Half on 1st sign of big momo pb. 

Other partial take on 1min break. 

There is nothing down here. For 4 points. 

Push to LOD again. Market not totally helping. Must let develop.

Wanted re add but never got to vwap/above. Dumped more with market. Took on another 1min hi. 1 left. Next spot to take is an ATR move at 67.66

Clear falling wedge forming. Will be out on over ext lower and return. Market internals clearly getting stronger, also seeing big buy backs. Not clear uptrend tho. 

And got the over ext into 68. Waiting to cut rest. And cut at ATR

Didnt take long and this thing totally fell apart. If I had taken correct partials at correct times, I would still have some to let ride right now, but becuase I cut my size in half on noise. Then took another half at the correct time. I was left with 2 to let ride, which I also took at correct times. I should have 2 riding right now. (3 take on momo, 2 left instead of take 5)

INTC solid drop, came back to retest levels and vwap. Failed and in. Missed momo chance. Market not completely with me, still choppy. Must let it be for moment. 

Made new LOD. Waiting for Bigger BO lower. Must remember +1R rules. Should go, no reason to let turn into loser now. 

Made a real nice move lower, but totally engulfed higher with volume. Cut it for small win. Shouldnt do that. 

And then market just lost it. Dropped not in.

Wednesday

Chores stacking up again. But not big deal.

Market gapping higher above yest VA. And ripping higher into the bell. Mostly longs but have some shorts too. Seems like recovery day so far. 

Some look to trigger right at the bell. 

Tough action, gap at them and fail or rip.

SNOW triggered in but no momo add, turned hard to break lod. Waiting. 

Turned back to break HOD, couldnt get add in between spread. 

Market turned up, we turned back to vwap and D level. Add chance. 

Couldnt get it again not chasing spread. New HOD. 

But not moving like rest, market chopping at new HOD, turned harsh lower as did SNOW, cut most. Letting 1 go possible re entry still. 

Cut as market dropped harder and returned to BE and vwap.

Turned to be the bottom and massive win. 

FUTU

weak seeing good reject at vwap with market weakness, in on reclaim lower. 

And immediately ripped my face off. 

MTCH

Great rel strength at great location, lost vwap, reclaimed as market dropping. Lower rvol but good action and location. 

Market had slight bounce, but turned lower even harder. MTCH following. Waiting. Action looks like it wants to hold but waiting on market. Internals clearly point lower 

Reclaimed higher again with vol and tape. Added on range break. Needs to run but seems unlikely. Not good intraday conditions yet but good rel strength.  May lead if market can turn. Cant trade on Ifs though. Need to protect than push here. 

And exactly what happened. QQ and SPY turned up hard and MTCH leading it. 

Again, protect not push, just 1 single bullish event in clear bearish action and less than superb RVOL and option flow. Not worth holding for max. Followed new momo rule and took 1/3 off on 1st pull in. Protect. 

Up +2R means keep win. Pullback almost at be. 

Made nice range above prev range and b/e will be stop.

Market trying to turn higher, internals creeping higher barely. Maybe.

And turned lower with market, cut rest. 

SNAP

coiled all day, slowly built back up and above vwap, tested under around HTF zone, reclaimed back above. In and added with momo. 

Market has turned a corner and with internals. Now coiling under vwap, market looking much stronger. 

Came up to top of range and HTF VA. Market then decided to breakdown SNAP followed. Out

Today was a little rough. Coming out with more that I started with, but seeing some huge moves out here and I only got small red. 

SE AMD were the huge wins I missed. AMD got above pmkt then just ran from above at the bell. Not chasing. SE made half of its ATR, then triggered, then ran the other half right away. No way im chasing that.

SNOW I traded right. Low rvol, market just lost lod after failing hod, SNOW hod break was low vol and less than exciting, Came back looked for reset. Tapped vwap and d hi and left never came back, even while market dumping hard. 

PENN coiled well all damn day, but under my levels and zones. In a weak market, with weak location, low rvol, no options. Why take that trade. Blew up.

MTCH reset, another 1 and done and never come back. Just not clean and clear with good reset

SNAP just no go. Is a lesser setup though

FUTU eventually reset, I just didnt go for it. There were 2 spots I could have, I just didnt. 

Annoying to see but market flat out did not make it easy today. As always the stocks PA takes priority, but that doesnt mean the overall market doesnt make a difference. Have to just take this one, move on to the next. 

Thursday

Market gapping and ripping. Seems like big recovery coming. Only longs. 1 Short.

GME 1st setup I actually go tin. Building around HTF VA zone and vwap, bounced, ripped in, waiting to add. 

Added momo, into HOD push. Market also turning up. And we broke it. Looking for move into prev d hi and bo level. 

But rejected and dropped, took partial on MOMO. Market also turned right back lower. 

Jesus and ripped up again, market all over the map here, GME holding higher at least, seems likely itll make its move, stilll have majority size on. Will take rest of momo on 1min lo break after new HOD push. 

If not, Warning signs, needs to run and +1R so stop near breakeven. 

Made move higher into pmkt hi at 187. Main PT at 188.50 ATR not an issue, Market up and sticking. 

Didnt get through lost 1min lo took partial. Half size left. Breakeven stop. And turned right lower into it. Cut all. Small win. Will have to reset for a while now. Not taking bounce. 

GME later lost most, then reclaimed vwap, and took off from there. Market was still ripping but I wanted more action in GME before I took. Left without me. Fine. Was not what I wanted to see. 

Friday

Market still blowing up. Some names gapping too high for me, if lucky ill get some premarket setup near trigger points. 

Just keep going as I have been. Staying patient, waiting for proper setup. Add the MOMO, cut the MOMO. 

COST

Dipped at open, held as did market, in and added on reclaim of vwap. 

Market turned up well, had big vol spike come in, holding under vwap now. Waiting. 

Dipped to LOD, held well, turned up again with vol, risk is way too big here I need to be out if fails here. 

Market got much stronger, we held well higher still, still stuck under 453 and vwap for now. 

And turned lower all out. Spread was killer on this. Way under estimated risk. 

BIDU had nice strong pop early morning, retracing to vwap and HTF zone. Looking to buy dip 

And dip was bought hard. 

Building above again. There is big OI level at 165 so need to be cautious. Tape seems jumpy and skippy. Maybe hidden sell 

Got above but quick stuff again, seems like sell. But good tape buying. Market exploding higher./ 

Also huge bid lower, getting v tight still. Reasons to hold here. And market got stuffed hard lower. 

We keep dipping and ripping, no reason to exit, still reasons to add if we can run and bust up. Will do it if we can, if not, trapped, need out asap. ETFs absolutely helping. 

And in a split moment, we all dump lower.

This market is turning on a dime several times already today. Very tough. 

We held anyways again, maybe big flush in market anyways to rip right back up. Waiting, havent lost yet. 

And thats exactly what happened, we turned up everywhere, added more. Needs to run, will add with momo. 

Getting extremely tight, with MAs and TL from HOD. At Apex soon. 

Broke higher, added. No vol or momo followup. Market also turned lower again.

Pulled in on no volume. Just noise moving this thing right now. 

Tape buying and big bid still here. Not sure what it is we need here to make a move. All MAs on LTF and HTF super tight and under price. Above HTF VA, Above vwap and levels. Market industry help. Tape cues. HTF Candles all buy wicks and insides everywhere. Just sitting here through theta crush losing prem. 

Dipped and finally cut

Dipped lower and then finally ripped as did other china tech names and ETF. Garbage

PERFORMANCE

NUMBERS and COMPLIANCE

A slow tough week. Took 12 trades. 5 Wins. Avg win $128 Avg Loss -$138. Without 2 huge losers on Friday, would only be -$88

Compliance low. 6 errors. A bit everywhere. 

-Lesser quality setup on IBM chosen over other better setups.

-MU big win of the week, Would have been twice as big, but cut all my momentum adds off on noise. Didnt have any size to let ride lower.

-INTC cut ALL size on move against me, should have only cut majority. 

-SNAP didnt cut MOMO adds when failed range HI break

-BIDU same as SNAP

-COST same day exp, risk was way larger than I initially thought. 

But as for winners

-Did great job recognizing warning signs, taking off size, keeping the win.

The good thing here, is that im being really specific about where and what my mistakes are. Majority of these are management. Taking off size too early on wins. Taking off trade too early on pullbacks. Not taking size off on warning signs to prevent larger losses. 

A B C GAME

TRADE GRADES

Daily Setup

    -3 Bs. Rest As.

        -Flat out lesser setups on the daily. Good enough, not great. These are setups I need to be risking less on.

Entry Criteria

    -All As. I enter trades at appropriate locations, under appropriate conditions.

Risk Grade

    -1 C, 1 B. Adds were well, initial risk is good. Friday was the 2 that killed me

Profit Taking

    -2 Bs. MU cut size too big too fast, INTC Cut all trade off on pullback. Needed to let some go still. 

Cutting Adds

    -4 Bs. Too early on winners, Non existent on losers that should have been cut after no MOMO

Exit Grade

    -1 B. INTC exited all instead of some

TOTAL

Of 72 total A game possibilities, 12 Were B game or lower. 83% A game. 

All of my compliant trades, were all A games. 

Cutting Adds Was biggest issue 

EMOTIONS 

Trying to find which emotion screwed me the most.

Greed

    -3 B games, INTC greed from taking off whole trade without wanting to give it back, SNAP from not cutting MOMO adds, BIDU same as SNAP

Fear

    -2 C games. MU and INTC, both wins, both cut wins very short when needed to let ride.

    -3 B game on SNOW, COST and BIDU. COST I remember going oh shit, risk is huge and not doing anything about it. BIDU same. SNOW re watching tape, it only just tapped vwap and D HTF level. Not completely reason to bail on the trade, all it did was tap the spot I should be looking to add or get in at if I wasnt it, then took off again. 

Anger

    -1 B game on BIDU, I remember being pissed time was passing, losing prem, didnt cut on WS but looked so good on HTF candles. 

Discipline

    -5 B game on IBM from lesser D setup and choosing it over other better ones, MU INTC from taking size off, BIDU SNAP from not cutting momo adds on warning signs. 

    -1 C game from COST, Lesser D setup, huge risk

Confidence (More so has to do with before trade. Mistakes come from over confidence in management, or lack of when shaken out)

    -7 B game IBM lesser setup, KSS short during strong market, Over confident BIDU SNAP by not cutting MOMO, Underconfident on INTC MU SNOW by cutting size/win short on simple pullbacks 

Of 60 possible A game tags, Only 39 A game emotional trades. 

Confidence and Discipline were biggest emotional problems. BUT I will say the majority of issues inside of them, stem from Fear. 

Fear of giving back profits > Cutting size short > Underconfident and lack of discipline to let run

Fear of being wrong > No cutting MOMO adds > over confident and lack of discipline to follow plan

Fear comes from managing winners and losers. 

The same can be thought of for Greed

Greed by holding and hoping trade still works and runs > Not cutting momo adds

Greed from taking lesser setups

Greed usually comes around managing winning trades. 

I dont usually have an issue being greedy by taking lesser setups. But it does count and happens sometimes. 

PROBLEMS

-Failing to give breakout trades priority

    -Market gap lower, trend higher into bell. Took daily pullback trades on trigger at bell instead of breakout. Pullbacks chopped, breakouts broke out hard. Missed breakouts. Took all losses on chop. 

-Taking momo off too fast. 

    -I get scared. Nervous. Fear of giving it back. I believe it is fine to take partials on momo against me since thats also why I get in the trade. But not half my position. If I catch a good win, chances are in runs much further in my favor, no need to choke that off. I had 10 total. 5 og, 5 momo, take 3 off. 

-Avoiding trades triggered premarket

    -Just means there is clear interest already going into the bell. If nearby, just use premarket hi as new trigger. If too far off, then wait. AMD. 

-Unaware of risk on option exp day.

    -Took 2 massive losses that erased all gains on the week. Prem just evaporating on noise and I sized up way too big. 

-Not watching stock closely after it reclaims vwap. 

-Not cutting size/momo adds off on warning signs, failed bullish follow up.

SOLUTIONS

-Give Breakouts Priority. Do better job at limiting watchlist after finding stocks. Give priority pre market. If one setups up with another, priority goes to the one with higher priority found during premarket by viewing variables  

-Take MOMO off, but not all. Just 1/2 of MOMO adds on 1st significant pb after stock has run a decent ways.

-A stock with premarket trend means there is already clear interest it wants to move. If its nearby, use pmkt hi as trigger close to D trigger.

-Always be risk conscious. Specifically on exp day. Its always bigger than I think. 

-A stock reclaiming vwap is 9/10 the trigger it needs in late morning that it tells me its ready to go. Shorts are wrong, bulls are right and ready to go with momentum.

-Cut the damn size off on lack of momo. These are warning signs. Dont want to be wrong twice. 

FINAL THOUGHTS AND GOALS

Wasnt an awful week. Small red. There were some crucial mistakes though that prevented a big green week. Cutting wins too short, focusing on lesser D setups instead of the breakouts. Not looking to get back in on vwap reclaim. Im always close, just coming up short. 

-Dig deeper into emotions. Get better understanding of what it is I am tracking and looking for. 

-All about MOMO adds. Cut them when there is no momo where there should be. Let them ride until 1st pb after a significant move away from trigger, and then only take 1/2 momo adds off. 

-Dont let fear rule my trading. Trust the process. Trust my process and probabilities.