6/5 Weekly Review
Solid week. Pretty happy with it, got some really good action out there in the markets. Some unreal moves. I did ok with capitalizing on it. The only thing I can think of off hand that I would want to change is increasing size, re entering/staying in positions. Wednesday was not a great day for me either. Overall I managed my trades very well though the numbers are great to look at. Definitely an upgrade from last week.
NUMBERS
+626$
38/123 31% WR
LT Trades 23/94 25% WR
LT Combined entries 8/27 30% WR 10 Of these losses on Wednesday, 5 should not have been taken.
Compliance 86%
+59R
65~breakeven
21 Full -1R loss
7 more than -1R loss
Avg win 50$
Avg loss -15$
Very happy with these numbers. Compliance up, avg win now triple avg loss.
VERY happy with only 7 more than -1R trades. 2 from extra slippage (-2.3 MAJOR slippage) 1 from a trade I shouldnt have been in, 2 more slippage but also too big of size given context so larger hit than necessary.
Managed risk very well. Cut a lot of trades off fast as they stopped working, led to a lot of breakeven/tiny losses that prevented even bigger ones. Getting really good at this.
Wednesday really skewed my stats. If I just didnt trade Wednesday at all id have 44 less trades.
37 of which were losers. Which wouldve saved me 325$ and put WR up to 40%
BEST TRADES
Some super good ones this week.
VTIQ breakout trade. +214$ +15R risked 131$ total. Would have been a much MUCH larger win if I had gotten fill for full size. My biggest R win came off of 7$ of risk and 69 shares, when I wanted 250 shares. 62$ win would have been 220$
PLNT solid reversal. +7R
Another VTIQ breakout that blew up for me. +5R Again would be more everything If I had better fills. VTIQ was a problem a lot this week trying to get fills. Had to settle for a lot of taking market orders just to make sure I was in.
COST scalp that blew up. Big HTF context +7R
AAL was an amazing trade. At the right place at the right time seeing the right things and pulling the trigger. Adding as we went. Only regrets not adding even more and I could have. Max risk was only up to 30$ on a 10 star trade. I should have looked to get bigger when I had the chance. Screenshot is wrong, my entries were actually on the 2nd wick low there before it came up and never came back. Should have looked to add as it broke above 13 as well. Trade was huge +33R
PLAY another squeezer. Solid pb, failed break lower, holding above HTF level with TL in play. Great place to get in super low risk. Didnt miss the chance to keep adding in this one. Got pretty big risked up to 80$ and paid off well. +16R but made a mistake of not exiting on over extension higher. Would have been +26R if I traded it with taking off after over extension.
CODX on friday also pretty good. Failed under, reclaimed, held tight, tight risk. Came within pennys of new HOD and wasnt going to let it turn on me as there was also a TL break from LOD. Solid win nothing super great though. +5R
And several other wallet padders but these were the main big ones. No surprise whats in common here as usual. Failure, clear PA. Holding above HTF.
PROBLEMS
-Late day trades
Im doing great making money 1st thing in the day. Price action is clear, I take the trades, I add right away, I get the wins. Later in the day is not so easy. Im giving too much money back trying to get these trades on in the same way I do in the morning.
In the morning I expect the moves to be quick and turn right away with not a lot of time to add or wait on pullbacks. They give me once chance, I get in, they go and never come back.
Later in the afternoon I am treating these trades the same way when i should now. It is later in the day, there is less volume, there is more noise. There are reasons for stocks to sit a while and consolidate before making moves again. Heres some ex of what I did.
COST was a great idea. Failed holding lower and came back up to reclaim. Its 3 hours into the day and its a name that does not have high volume / rvol. The trade needs time to work. I got in and got out when it dipped lower into the zone. It reclaimed, dipped lower I get out again. Why do I not get in a 3rd time.
ROKU another case of me getting out at warning signs but not looking to get back in on successful retest of HTF level.
These are solid trade ideas that both turned out to be monster wins. I have good entries on both and exit appropriately when I see what I need to see to get me out.
Im good at cutting losses quick and its becoming a strength so id like to lean on that. Which means giving stocks space is not something I as a trader should work on. So that means I need to work on re entry.
Theres a couple problems I need to address
1. Adding
I am starting these trades with appropriate starting size. Not big, risking a little looking to add when it starts working. I added to these trades right away as it was ticking in my favor. In early morning trades this is what I should be doing. In later day trades this is NOT what I should be doing. These trades need time to build out. When I chase and add higher, these stocks do not have the same momentum they did at the start of the day. They need time.
When I add size on these later in day trades, I am increasing my risk as it moves in my favor which is good, but my expectations on the trade cannot be the same as earlier in the day. I should not expect these names to get up and go right from 1st entry, UNLESS I have already given the stock plenty of time to base out. I need to add slower. On pullbacks that hold, not chasing these.
2. Re entry
Sometimes you just lose and thats fine. But you losing and you being wrong can be 2 different things. Managing risk is #1 and I must continue cutting my losses where I have been. I dont need to work on holding onto these trades longer as they move against me because its not my strengths nor do I feel like doing that.
I have to get back in the trade when it proves itself. Regardless if it means I take 3 losses in a row before I get the win. Thats why I manage risk and add to my winners.
-Not following profit taking rules
Im more or less 'doing what I feel like' when PT is reached. In some cases I end up pretty big I take off at 1st sign of selling after PT. Which hurt the potential P/L pretty good this week. I choked my profits off too quick because I wanted to make sure I keep a win. Im going to keep a win no matter what once my PT is hit because I take my profit where Im supposed to. The ultimate goal here is to keep that size on for as long as I can while still having a plan to take off. The 1min lo take off came into play a ton this week but I ignored it and took it off anyways. Best winners need to erase multiple losers, and the REAL big wins need to erase multiple DAYS of losers. And this week would have done exactly that
In some of my best trades you can see that after target was reached, price never broke below 1min candles in multiple cases, allowing me to hold full size and capture even more of that move with the size on.
-Over trading
Wednesday was pretty bad, I got caught in a lot of maybe trades, anticipating the move before the levels actually held. And in some cases the level didnt exist. Another one I just kept going back and forth with the tape showing my buy sell, big offers, big bids. I took losses both ways. I just needed to stay away when it wasnt clear and deal with missing the trade if it happened. Look to get in on the backside. Dont always need to guess the front.
-Not getting filled
Several trades this week, mainly VTIQ now NKLA, I had huge winners in terms of R, but the size I wanted was not near as big as I was trying to get. One case I only got 69/250, another 118 of 300, another 25 of 100. All big winners but I couldnt get the fill trying to split the spread.
SOLUTIONS
For late in day trades
1. Enter normally.
2. Add only on successfully held pullbacks.
3. Do not chase adds. Look to build a position near / at same entry area, not increasing avg price + risk
4. If stopped out and reclaims, get back in. Try again and add on successfully held pullbacks.
5. Only if the trade comes after a failed break the opposite direction, after some time has passed, should I look to add as it starts working and turning.
Follow your profit taking rules. There is no exceptions. If I am big that doesnt mean I need to take some off to cover risk at PT. My big size represents confidence in the move and I need to follow my rules to exploit the most out of it. No need to cover risk, risk is already covered. The stock is at my PT. Deal with the potential loss of profit by dealing with the process. Deal with it. Doesnt matter. I know that my process allows me to capture the most of moves so I need to follow it.
Avoid over trading by not settling for anything less than clean and clear price action that is clearly holding above or below HTF levels. Not in between, not around, Above or below.
Some names im going to have to deal with shaving/taking the market if I want to get in. I gotta be fast and decisive about it. I am not sure how I can be better at noticing times I need to do this. Perhaps more exp ill be able to tell with certain names.
FINAL THOUGHTS & GOALS
Good week. Great opportunity. As always could be better. Must follow rules and take the best, leave the rest. Must stay adaptable. The short trades are there too, not just long squeezes.
1. Stay aggressive. Market is hot with some real movers out there
2. Follow PT rule. Do not adjust size until PT or stop is hit. Once PT hit, look to cover half on new 1min candle lo/hi and let rest ride for pivot break.
3. Trade late day trades with less adds. Only add on successfully held pullbacks
4. Wait for trades to become clean and clear before getting involved. Holding above/below HTF areas.
NUMBERS
+626$
38/123 31% WR
LT Trades 23/94 25% WR
LT Combined entries 8/27 30% WR 10 Of these losses on Wednesday, 5 should not have been taken.
Compliance 86%
+59R
65~breakeven
21 Full -1R loss
7 more than -1R loss
Avg win 50$
Avg loss -15$
Very happy with these numbers. Compliance up, avg win now triple avg loss.
VERY happy with only 7 more than -1R trades. 2 from extra slippage (-2.3 MAJOR slippage) 1 from a trade I shouldnt have been in, 2 more slippage but also too big of size given context so larger hit than necessary.
Managed risk very well. Cut a lot of trades off fast as they stopped working, led to a lot of breakeven/tiny losses that prevented even bigger ones. Getting really good at this.
Wednesday really skewed my stats. If I just didnt trade Wednesday at all id have 44 less trades.
37 of which were losers. Which wouldve saved me 325$ and put WR up to 40%
BEST TRADES
Some super good ones this week.
VTIQ breakout trade. +214$ +15R risked 131$ total. Would have been a much MUCH larger win if I had gotten fill for full size. My biggest R win came off of 7$ of risk and 69 shares, when I wanted 250 shares. 62$ win would have been 220$
PLNT solid reversal. +7R
Another VTIQ breakout that blew up for me. +5R Again would be more everything If I had better fills. VTIQ was a problem a lot this week trying to get fills. Had to settle for a lot of taking market orders just to make sure I was in.
COST scalp that blew up. Big HTF context +7R
AAL was an amazing trade. At the right place at the right time seeing the right things and pulling the trigger. Adding as we went. Only regrets not adding even more and I could have. Max risk was only up to 30$ on a 10 star trade. I should have looked to get bigger when I had the chance. Screenshot is wrong, my entries were actually on the 2nd wick low there before it came up and never came back. Should have looked to add as it broke above 13 as well. Trade was huge +33R
PLAY another squeezer. Solid pb, failed break lower, holding above HTF level with TL in play. Great place to get in super low risk. Didnt miss the chance to keep adding in this one. Got pretty big risked up to 80$ and paid off well. +16R but made a mistake of not exiting on over extension higher. Would have been +26R if I traded it with taking off after over extension.
CODX on friday also pretty good. Failed under, reclaimed, held tight, tight risk. Came within pennys of new HOD and wasnt going to let it turn on me as there was also a TL break from LOD. Solid win nothing super great though. +5R
And several other wallet padders but these were the main big ones. No surprise whats in common here as usual. Failure, clear PA. Holding above HTF.
PROBLEMS
-Late day trades
Im doing great making money 1st thing in the day. Price action is clear, I take the trades, I add right away, I get the wins. Later in the day is not so easy. Im giving too much money back trying to get these trades on in the same way I do in the morning.
In the morning I expect the moves to be quick and turn right away with not a lot of time to add or wait on pullbacks. They give me once chance, I get in, they go and never come back.
Later in the afternoon I am treating these trades the same way when i should now. It is later in the day, there is less volume, there is more noise. There are reasons for stocks to sit a while and consolidate before making moves again. Heres some ex of what I did.
COST was a great idea. Failed holding lower and came back up to reclaim. Its 3 hours into the day and its a name that does not have high volume / rvol. The trade needs time to work. I got in and got out when it dipped lower into the zone. It reclaimed, dipped lower I get out again. Why do I not get in a 3rd time.
ROKU another case of me getting out at warning signs but not looking to get back in on successful retest of HTF level.
These are solid trade ideas that both turned out to be monster wins. I have good entries on both and exit appropriately when I see what I need to see to get me out.
Im good at cutting losses quick and its becoming a strength so id like to lean on that. Which means giving stocks space is not something I as a trader should work on. So that means I need to work on re entry.
Theres a couple problems I need to address
1. Adding
I am starting these trades with appropriate starting size. Not big, risking a little looking to add when it starts working. I added to these trades right away as it was ticking in my favor. In early morning trades this is what I should be doing. In later day trades this is NOT what I should be doing. These trades need time to build out. When I chase and add higher, these stocks do not have the same momentum they did at the start of the day. They need time.
When I add size on these later in day trades, I am increasing my risk as it moves in my favor which is good, but my expectations on the trade cannot be the same as earlier in the day. I should not expect these names to get up and go right from 1st entry, UNLESS I have already given the stock plenty of time to base out. I need to add slower. On pullbacks that hold, not chasing these.
2. Re entry
Sometimes you just lose and thats fine. But you losing and you being wrong can be 2 different things. Managing risk is #1 and I must continue cutting my losses where I have been. I dont need to work on holding onto these trades longer as they move against me because its not my strengths nor do I feel like doing that.
I have to get back in the trade when it proves itself. Regardless if it means I take 3 losses in a row before I get the win. Thats why I manage risk and add to my winners.
-Not following profit taking rules
Im more or less 'doing what I feel like' when PT is reached. In some cases I end up pretty big I take off at 1st sign of selling after PT. Which hurt the potential P/L pretty good this week. I choked my profits off too quick because I wanted to make sure I keep a win. Im going to keep a win no matter what once my PT is hit because I take my profit where Im supposed to. The ultimate goal here is to keep that size on for as long as I can while still having a plan to take off. The 1min lo take off came into play a ton this week but I ignored it and took it off anyways. Best winners need to erase multiple losers, and the REAL big wins need to erase multiple DAYS of losers. And this week would have done exactly that
In some of my best trades you can see that after target was reached, price never broke below 1min candles in multiple cases, allowing me to hold full size and capture even more of that move with the size on.
-Over trading
Wednesday was pretty bad, I got caught in a lot of maybe trades, anticipating the move before the levels actually held. And in some cases the level didnt exist. Another one I just kept going back and forth with the tape showing my buy sell, big offers, big bids. I took losses both ways. I just needed to stay away when it wasnt clear and deal with missing the trade if it happened. Look to get in on the backside. Dont always need to guess the front.
-Not getting filled
Several trades this week, mainly VTIQ now NKLA, I had huge winners in terms of R, but the size I wanted was not near as big as I was trying to get. One case I only got 69/250, another 118 of 300, another 25 of 100. All big winners but I couldnt get the fill trying to split the spread.
SOLUTIONS
For late in day trades
1. Enter normally.
2. Add only on successfully held pullbacks.
3. Do not chase adds. Look to build a position near / at same entry area, not increasing avg price + risk
4. If stopped out and reclaims, get back in. Try again and add on successfully held pullbacks.
5. Only if the trade comes after a failed break the opposite direction, after some time has passed, should I look to add as it starts working and turning.
Follow your profit taking rules. There is no exceptions. If I am big that doesnt mean I need to take some off to cover risk at PT. My big size represents confidence in the move and I need to follow my rules to exploit the most out of it. No need to cover risk, risk is already covered. The stock is at my PT. Deal with the potential loss of profit by dealing with the process. Deal with it. Doesnt matter. I know that my process allows me to capture the most of moves so I need to follow it.
Avoid over trading by not settling for anything less than clean and clear price action that is clearly holding above or below HTF levels. Not in between, not around, Above or below.
Some names im going to have to deal with shaving/taking the market if I want to get in. I gotta be fast and decisive about it. I am not sure how I can be better at noticing times I need to do this. Perhaps more exp ill be able to tell with certain names.
FINAL THOUGHTS & GOALS
Good week. Great opportunity. As always could be better. Must follow rules and take the best, leave the rest. Must stay adaptable. The short trades are there too, not just long squeezes.
1. Stay aggressive. Market is hot with some real movers out there
2. Follow PT rule. Do not adjust size until PT or stop is hit. Once PT hit, look to cover half on new 1min candle lo/hi and let rest ride for pivot break.
3. Trade late day trades with less adds. Only add on successfully held pullbacks
4. Wait for trades to become clean and clear before getting involved. Holding above/below HTF areas.
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