1st Quarter + Premium Analysis + Trades at the Bell Analysis + Winners Variable Winrate Analysis + Trade Grade Rewrite
To start, there were several projects I wanted to dig into and get answers to.
PREMIUM ANALYSIS
One was premium and cents at risk based on premium.
For starters, when I began trading I knew winrate was one of the more irrelevant measures. But now that I am consistent in my setups, it is more relevant than before.
I noticed in my stats that my winrate on trades with premium less than 1$ and cents at risk less than .10 cents, are much higher than the rest. With a good sample size to go with it. And anything larger than 2$ premium and more than .25 cents of risk is much less than average. Same with good sample size.
What I am taking this is as, is the more scalpable the stock option (INTC, AAL, AAPL) The better I perform, the more spready (SNOW GOOG AMZN) The worse. I select my strike based on delta. Closest to 50 under 50 is what I am for. On the bigger names with wider spreads, I go til the calls are under 3$.
There is still good setups and money to be made for me in names like AMZN and GOOG. While my risk is wider, my size is smaller and that is just fine. They still make large fast moves and I can be in and out within minutes with a profit if necessary.
I did a little deeper digging and got this
Avg Cents at risk if Prem is less than 1$ .10
Prem between 1$ and 1.25$ .14
1.25$ and 1.5$ .16
1.5$ and 1.75$ .22
1.75$ and 2$ .21
2$ and 2.5$ .25
2.5$ and 3$ .24
>3$ .36
Obviously right. Cents at risk only goes so far though. $$$ at risk means a bit more for consistency sake. .09 cents at risk, 5 contracts on im at 50$ risk. .25 cents at risk, 2 contracts on, still 50$ risk. How well do I do that?
Avg $ at risk
< 1$ 51$
1$ and 1.25$ 55$
1.25$ and 1.5$ 48$
1.5$ and 1.75$ 60$
1.75$ and 2$ 58$
2$ and 2.5$ 66$
2.5$ and 3$ 63$
>3$ 60$
Not super obvious, but clear theme. Higher prem higher overall risk on avg. And this hurts me in the end.
It hurts because my stats are screaming at me, YOU ARE LOSING MONEY TAKING TRADES ON BIGGER PREM OPTIONS. Not only am I losing money, im losing more money because my average risk is larger than on smaller prems.
My risk is not controlled as I think it is.
This helps me know what my actual risk is based on prem at a glance. It can save precious seconds and become more consistent in my sizing.
I will say when it comes to AMZN GOOG trades this is not as relevant. Those are the outliers and im fine with that I will still trade those names as I know I can get good money out of them.
So the part that makes me more consistent here, is I can judge my risk just based on premium now.
< 1$ Risk is: .10cents
1$ and 1.25$ .15
1.25$ and 1.5$ .15
1.5$ and 1.75$ .2
1.75$ and 2$ .2
2$ and 2.5$ .25
2.5$ and 3$ .25
>3$ .35
This is not a one size fits all type scenario. There are occassions its going to be more or less. But because my risk has been so jacked up lately, trying to determine on the fly can be hard. This is a black and white way for me to know asap what it is.
0dte exp is going to be larger than this. Faster names is going to be larger than this. Spready names...well I dont trade spready names anymore so thats not an issue.
And lastly looking at avg win and loss
No real clear theme here either. Or is there? Outliers are decieving.
The large avg win on 2-2.5 is from an AMZN win. Without that win it drops to 56$.
The large avg loss on <1 is from CVS loss. Without that loss it increases to -34$
And with those 2 out of the picture, the theme is clear. 1.5 and less is my sweet spot.
All avg wins just about double avg loss.
WR is 59% compared to 24% on 1.5+
AND avg risk and loss generally larger on 1.5+
The solution is clear
It doesnt mean I need to trade less, it does mean though that I have to select a different instrument to trade. Plenty of ways to be long CVS. There are choices that are better for me though.
I mean the simple logic here, is higher prem = wider spreads = worse scalps, Im a scalper, if I cant scalp, im just losing the spread and then some delta/theta decay
Ideally every trade I take now I will look for the 1.5prem and less. If I cant get it, and there will be cases I wont, I will have to judge accordingly and be more aware of what my risk is to make sure im not oversizing and still able to scalp the trade.
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TRADES AT THE BELL
I was having trouble with my trades at the bell. Kept taking them and losing them so I need to dig deeper into those trades as well.
In the past, trades taken in the 1st 15 minutes of the day were my best performers. Most volume, most explosive.
I had a feeling that I did something like this a long time ago. An analysis of my early morning trades, and I did
https://justadaytrader.blogspot.com/2020/04/analysis-of-my-early-morning-trades.html
Almost 2 years ago. Kinda cool, this was one of my first deep digs into my trades I did.
And it was a great analysis. But im different now, and this was not specific enough.
So im going to do the usual. Look at the wins and take a tally on whats in common. Same with losers.
Going to have to go back to last years winners as well. Dont have a large enough sample from this year yet.
Variables I want to look at are
32 Wins
SPY Direction Helping /////////////// 46
SPY Chop //////// 21
SPY Trending Opposite ///////// 28
Stock pmkt price action and vol /////////////// 46
Stock Clear trend with //////// 25
Stock premarket Chop /////////////// 47
Stock Clear trend against ///// 15
Stock no pmkt action ///////////////// 53
BO trade //////////////// 50
PB //////////////// 50
Trigger already happened pmkt /////////////// 46
Entry at D level ////////////////////////// 81
Entry at BO level //
Entry at HTF area //
Intraday entry /
Large move into trigger //////15
Small move into trigger ///////////////////////// 78
1st min of day /////////// 34
2nd ///////// 28
3rd ///// 15
4th //
5th ///// 15
WINNERS
No difference PB and BO, even $$$ wise.
Daily level trigger was most common. Not buying random intraday levels.
The trade does not need SPY help
It does not have to have any pmkt price action or trend. And if it does it doesnt even need to be trending direction of trade
It can happen at any point in the 1st 5 minutes.
It can already have triggered pre market.
Small move into trigger, most not over extended into it.
There are only 2 must haves for these kinds of trades. Small, not over extended move into trigger, and Daily level trigger for entry.
Im very surprised the other variables are not telling of a win. That means I can reallly trade these pretty restriction free. I dont need to have SPY in favor. The stock does not need premarket action to take trade after trigger.
This means im going to have to do the opposite. Now look at losers and see what most of my losers had in common.
36 Losses
BO trade ///////////////////// 58
PB /////////////// 42
SPY Direction Helping ///////////////// 47
SPY Chop /////////// 31
SPY Trending Opposite ///////// 25
Stock pmkt price action and vol /////////////////////// 64
Stock no pmkt action /////////// 31
Stock Clear trend with ///// 14
Stock pmkt Chop ////////////////// 50
Stock Clear trend against //
Trigger already happened pmkt ////////////////// 50
Entry at D level ////////////////////// 64
Entry at BO level ////// 14
Entry at HTF area //// 11
Intraday entry //
Large move into trigger /////// 17
Small move into trigger /////////////////////////// 78
1st min of day /////////////// 42
2nd ///////// 25
3rd //
4th ////// 17
5th //// 11
This is pretty much the same as the winners. No tell tale signs here.
Premarket chop is not a significant factor in winners or losers. W and L, half the trades had chop, others had no action or a clear trend one way or the other.
Looking at ticker alone W L
Big name, still trading? ///////////// //////////
Old big name, no longer trading? /
Smaller name, still trading? //////////// //////////////////////
Old small name, no longer trading? ////////// ////
The bigger wins definitely came from bigger names like AMZN AAPL SHOP.
Clearly smaller names had majority of the losses. Names im not trading anymore though didnt add up to the majority of what I was trading.
Maybe BO trades had larger wins than PB trades.
Quick analysis, there is no difference.
And lastly maybe Score out of 10 had something notable.
W L
10 / /
9 ////// /////
8 ////////////// ///////
7 ////////// ///////////
6 / ////////
5 ///// /////
So we FINALLY got something here. Majority of all wins are 7 and above. Ideally 8 as theres still a lot of losses at 7.
So what did we learn?
-SPY direction does not make a difference
-Triggering pre market does not make a difference.
-Entry must be at daily level, or very nearby.
-No trades should be taken after a large move occured.
-1st min should be avoided if there is no pmkt activity
-If trending premarket, or counter trending premarket action, any minute is acceptable to take the trade.
-BO or PB makes no difference
-Bigger market cap FANG names performed best.
-7 out of 10 is necessary for trading.
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WINNERS AND LOSERS ANALYSIS
Im a new trader this year compared to the last time I did this.
Therefore I take new trades, with new risk, new management, and new expectations.
So I need to review my winners again on these new types of trades under a new style of trading, and see if anything stands out.
Im midway through the month here and ive setup my spreadsheet to do the tallies and percentages for me. There are some things this year that stand out.
A thing I need to keep in mind, is that these are not win rates of individual tags, these are percentages of winners and losers that had a certain tag.
Of all my winning trades, 95% of them, or 60 out of 63 wins, had the tag Anchored Vwap on it.
That is not saying that if I have an anchored vwap tag, it means theres a 95% chance its a win.
It does say that if I have a win, theres a 95% chance there is an anchored vwap tag with it.
For losses, 97% of my losses or 102 out of 105, had the tag Anchored Vwap on it
of 168 trades this quarter, 162 of them had the anchored vwap tag on them. 60 turned out to be wins, and 102 turned out to be losers.
This just means that with any trade I take, it is very likely going to have that tag. But that tag alone does not tell me its more likely one way or the other.
I have a separate win rate column for individual tag win rates.
Anchored Vwap WR is 37% which is also 60/162 or W / Total
Thats not an uncommon occurence here in my winners vs losers. Many other tags have similar numbers and %
VA edge 95 and 97
MA Coil 65 and 69
Failed BO 84 and 77
Looking a step further, I need to look at count of times it happened.
1 for 3 is 33% but so is 11 for 33. And 11 for 33 is more significant than only 3 samples. And I see that with some tags.
And a step further than that is $ per count.
All anch vwap tag for winners is 37% on 23 counts with 79$ per count, one of my higher ones
All anch vwap tag for losers is 32% on 34 counts with -54$, one in the middle
So while that % is lower for winners, when it is happening, it is significant in that on average it returns more money when I have it, as opposed to when I dont have it.
The other concern is some are not tags but a choice of a few.
Top mid or Bottom. My daily trade location.
All combined make up 100% of my winners, but Bot has 59% of total wins.
However looking at win rate on Bot trades, its 38% on 97 total trades
Where as Top makes up 16% of wins and has a win rate of 56%
This makes sense given market environment, there are less stocks trading at the top of ranges, and plenty more at the bottom.
But it does tell me top is the best performer, just doesnt make up the most of my wins.
What are the major variables that make up majority of my winners?
ALL at VA edge
95% have an anchored vwap reclaim prev day
91% have MA reclaim prev day
87% are under/above all MAs
85% have a failed daily breakout opposite direction
83% have a score of 7 or higher, 54% an 8 or higher
-This can be much higher but I butchered 16/17 9scored trades
64% were BO 2nd day, and PB Failure Daily setups
72% short trades
73% Cover candle shape
73% have been flagged on watchlist
80% MA on LTF supporting
91% Weekly chart
78% Market not hurting
80% Relative strength, weakness to index
87% Consistent price action
89% Theme
69% 20+ score
97% taken at vwap
49% taken at htf vprof area
90% Tape cues
72% CumDel
ALL 1Hr MA support
78% Rvol greater than 1
72% within 1st 30 min of day
78% Market helping 1+
70% Market helping 2+
67% 1,0 DTE
Tags that have the highest winrate?
78% 10 Score
54% 8 Score
45% All MA
46% BO 2nd day, and PB Failure
56% Top
49% Short
48% Close at Low, or LOD
55% 0% gap to Inside -1% from prev day hi/lo to outside -1%
-Shorts that havent gone too far from breaking point
45% Cover
67% Blue (Monthly)
52% Purple(Beatdown names, Short)
50% MA in order
55% Relative strength, weakness to index
49% Consistent price action
68% 22+
52% 20+
50% vol 5
77% Sustained rvol
62% sustained option rvol
47% RVOL greater than 1
42% 1st 15 min
74% 0dte
What are my most profitable tags per count
All Anch VWAP supporting, Level 4 Rank, Volume, Score 9/10, BO 2nd day, and PB Failure
Top/Mid, HOD, Outside -1%, Range, Huge level, Market Help, Relative strength, RSI Break
Cumulative delta Divergence, 22+ overall score, Volume 3+, Breakout entry, RVOL, Option RVOL both abnormal
CumDelta, TOD 1, Market Help 2+, 0dte
What are the sweetspot tags?
Any 90%+ are must haves
VA Edge, and 1Hr Support
Anch Vwap/MA Reclaim
Weekly Chart, Theme
Trade taken at VWAP, Tape Cues
And then varbiables appearing in multple sections
8+Score
All MAs under/over
BO 2nd day, and PB Failure
Relative Strength
Consistent PA
Cum Delta, both daily + intraday
Flagged names
Top
22+ / 20+
Within 1% of prev hi/lo
------ Daily ^ Intraday ↓
RVOL >1, sustained and option rvol
Market help 2+
0,1 DTE
TOD 1
These are my most important variables for winners
I keep track of 33 individual daily tags.
I dont think ive ever recorded a trade bigger than 27
I only have 10 daily tags listed here as most important. 4 of those in my previous top 10.
The question is, Should I eliminate some?
The variables that did not show up in any of the above are
-Any of the previous day range/vol/rvol/options
-News
-Short Float
-Major HTF area
-Market not hurting
-Big options (surprising)
-MACD, OBV, RSI Div, Break
Thats 12 there.
I think yes, but I need to look at losers first to really filter it down.
The key is larger % in winners, than in losers.
For instance Consistent PA appeared in 87% of W but only 53% of L
Aside from daily tags I still have my intraday tags such as long,short, candle shape, entry location, rvol, tape etc. Those are all still worth keeping track of as they have all shown up in at least 1 of the 3 sections above.
What are the major variables that make up majority of my losers and NOT in winners?
86% Multi day
61% 7 score or less
66% of losses has a close positive % above prev day hi or lo.
-Means if im shorting, I do not want to see close above prev day lo.
-If long, dont want to see it too far too fast. Want to see a close inside -1% below prev day hi
67% of losses closed larger than +1% or -1%
-Best trades have not made a significant move and close yet. Daily candles are still tight.
57% BO Trades
-Pre is worst
-Of PB trades, BO is worst
-Usually I select this if it is random, or not BO or F. Meaning its lesser.
61% Day 0
73% Major Area
41% Rvol less than 1
Tags that have the lowest winrate?
ANY B trade grades
7 Score and lower
Mid
Pre, At, PB at BO levels
Longs
Green (Weekly)
Prev Day Rvol
News
Range
Short Float
MACD Cross
20 and less
1 Vol rating
PB entry type
Rvol less than 1
Rvol more than 5
Market neutral
- -1,0,1 meaning range bound
What are my least profitable tags per count
Risk grade B
Outside -1%
Vol rating 5
Strong open
rvol 5+
There is not too much telling here that winners havent already told. The problem with my losers usually circles back to non compliance. And given one of my worst mistakes is settling for less, that skews my numbers quite a bit.
When removed somethings change.
-score 8+ shoots up
-candle shape cover ^
-20+ score ^
-early morning trades ^
Basically what looked best, looks even better. No big changes in any 1 variable though.
So what does this all mean? What questions do I ask and what did I answer?
Elimination.
-In Spreadsheet
Some variables made no difference in winners or losers. Therefore, why track them?
-Any of the previous day range/vol/rvol/options
-News
-Short Float
-Major HTF area
-Market not hurting
-MACD, OBV, RSI Div, Break
-In Selection
-Any trade idea 7 score or less is eliminated
-For a 7 to stay must have rel strength/weakness, consistent PA, and sector theme
-I had 33 variables I tracked. Majority of wins had at least 20 tags. That means 60% of tags must be there
-If I am eliminating recording 12 tags. That leaves me with 21 variables to record. 60% is 12.
-14 Would match the prev 22 tags for 68% WR which also made up half my wins this qtr
I still want to keep my Score and total Star rating separate, My score came from reviewing best wins of all time. Star rating is the other still important variables. I will have to do another review into this when I get more data once again.
Importance.
Daily
Some variables really stood out in this.
Relative strength/weakness
Consistent PA
Inside -1%/1%
1Hr
Intraday
RVOL
Market help
VWAP
Tape
CDV
Setups
Top, Breakout 2nd day, and PB Failures were my best performers. This is good to know.
This also gives me a chance to add a few more daily tags to record everyday.
-Tight close (within -1%/1%)
-Best setups (BO 2nd, PB F)
All in all, this winner review led to me recognizing what ideas to avoid. If they dont meet a certain # of tags, its an avoid.
It did not lead to me trading anything differently based on 1 variable or another, or risking less if it didnt have X.
Rel Strength/Weakness and Consistent PA were very notable. I would like to move them to most important variables. But I think its best to give another quarter before making that choice. For now ill leave it all as is.
And as I kept going, I discovered I can have an intraday score system as well.
There are 6 key intrady variables I found in my winners. RVOL, Tape, CDV, Market help, VWAP, 1Hr
I keep track of 9, the others above avg option RVOL and sustained rvol of stock and options.
So again it goes to this new 60%-70% rule. That I need at least 60% of total variables in favor to have a good trade.
To make it a solid out of 10, im going to add intraday failure to the list. As I know it is still one major trigger I see in my trades often, both daily and intraday.
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TRADE / EMOTIONAL GRADE REVIEW
The last project I want to take on is objectifying any tag that is not completely 100% objective.
Mainly around my trade grades, and emotional grades.
I had a good starting idea on what all these tags meant to me, and how they should be graded.
Now that ive done good winner analysis, I have a good idea on how I can be more detailed in these grades. What really consists of an A grade or B grade.
Trade Grades
Daily setup
-70%+ total tags out of 25 A
-60%+ B
-60%- C
Entry Criteria
-RVOL 1+ / 1Hr / Tape / At level/area / VWAP / CDV / Market Helping - A
- Any of the above -1 - B
- Any of the above -2 - C
Risk Grade
-OG small, under 50$ risk, M1 Larger, M2 Larger, M3 Larger - A
-OG med/large, above 50$ risk, small Momo adds, not larger than OG - B
-OG Large, 80$+ if not A+ trade - C
Profit Taking
-Correct size off at PT after correct trigger, +2R cut positive - A
-Too early taking profit, didnt cut at appropriate R - B
-Winner turned into Loss - C
Exit Grade
-MOMO Cut if no MOMO, proper PT, Proper save trade after +2R - A
-Any mistake from ^ - B
-Winner turned to loss - C
Compared to the last time I did this, October last year, there is much more detail an no room for emotion. It either is, or it isnt.
Emotional Grade
I am not entirely sure recording these emotions is helping me.
I have found through recording them the past 6 months that fear was my bigger issue as it led to taking profits too early/ incorrectly. And now I am recognizing greed is becoming more a problem as I take lesser setups. Coul also be considered FOMO as well.
And if my goal here is objectivity then I need to decide what the difference is and how to record it.
A step further though, once I do, what then? Does it make me a better trader knowing the answer to how I should record it?
Going through this process was all because of the book, The Mental Game of Trading by Jared Tendler. I was not a huge fan of the book but wanted to give the emotional recording process a shot.
It helped me attach the emotion to the mistake. I still have my list of most common errors, and now can apply an emotion to it, but how does that help me?
One of the main points of the book is not to try and eliminate emotion, but to manage it. Because it comes and goes from trade to trade. Sometimes its not there for a week, sometimes its there the whole week.
But I cant seem to make the connection between emotion and compliance mistake. I know that when I take profits early, its from fear of giving back gains. In my spreadsheet I record it as the compliance #8 and then mark fear a 2, or B game.
But what next, I keep tallys so I know where my worst mistakes lie. But do I need an emotional grade per trade to further explore that mistake?
I dont think so.
What doing this has helped me do, is pay better attention to my emotions so that they do not turn into action.
Its been like this my whole career, I make the mistake, I track it, I explore it, I implement a solution and continue on.
This extra step of emotional grades seems like im chasing perfection. Its almost redundant and takes up time.
Im chasing quantity over quality.
On top of that im already grading my trades and certain aspects in there that tie into compliance errors.
Any B game grade, means that I made a compliance error.
Now I know secondary what emotion led to that mistake, but I cant make the jump that I need to track that emotion anymore as well.
I think I have found a solution. Instead of digging into individual emotions, I want to add a separate grade to my trade grade system. Emotional Grade. A B or C grade.
If I was cool calm collected, A
If I felt pressured, antsy, jumped the gun, I was not cool, calm, collected, B
If I lost all control, in early, added too big. Cut on noise, C
And lastly there are some variables that I want to look at.
Volume. Ranked 1-5
I rank it based on 1min vol. If its got 100k+ per min its a 5. If it sometimes only has 1 transaction a minute, its a 1.
The easier way I think is to go by avg daily vol. Ive got Trade Ideas toplist of all the stocks I watch, sorted by avg daily vol 5days.
Highest ranking is 50M+ and lowest is 2M-
2-10 for 2
10-25 for 3
25-50 for 4
I like it
My level ranking was on a 1-5, I want to change to 1-3
1 is if its only recently in action
2 is if its been in action a few times for a month or two
3 is if its been a singificant yearly level/area
Market trend
on -5 through 5. I want to reduce again to -3 to 3
0 is neutral range bound market
1 is helping. simply market making a HH and holding. Can quickly change to 0 if fails.
2 is market trending, made HH and stuck it and kept trending higher
3 is market ripping, v strong trend
Going a bit further I want to go over my daily tags themselves and make sure I know what im doing
So I have 25 total tags I look out for
Multiday consolidation
-2 or more days in a range
VA Edge
-Value Area edge
Anchored Vwap
-Prev days candle on top of some major anchv
All Anch Vwap
-All Anchv under/above
All MAs
-All MAs under/above
MA Reclaim
-Prev day candle reclaimed MA or group of MAs and close above/under
MA Coil
-Tight MA coil 9/20
Failed BO
-Failed breakout of range opposite direction within last week or so
TL Break
-Trendline break with daily trigger
Volume
-Prev Day candle vol bigger than 2 days ago
MA in order
-for longs, 9 on top of 20 on top of 50 100 200
MA on LTF
-All MAs on 4hr chart and less under/above
Range
-If trigger is at a range high or low on daily chart with or without multi day consolidation
Huge Level
-Range hi/lo multiple times tested
Weekly Chart
-Weekly chart has no MAs in the way of trade, gaps
Major Area
-Monthly/yearly significantly traded area, or level/area
Flagged
-One of my flags on the stock
Best setup
-2nd Day BO, Failed breakout PB
Tight close
-within 1%/-1% of prev day high/lo
Market Clearly Helping
-Market trending with idea overall, not range bound/turning
Big Options
-Unusual Whales, near exp big sweeps, large call/put vol increase past day or two
Relative Strength
-Stock has trended higher/stronger than SPY/Q trend
Consistent PA
-Stock has made similar breakouts in the past from same action
CDV
-Cumulative Delta Divergence in favor of idea
Theme
-Stock is in a sector/industry/market regime that is hot and unusual.
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AND FINALLY, now that all that is done, I can start talking about the 1st quarter itself.
One of the more difficult periods of life.
My son was born Jan 17.
It has been great.
Youd expect that to be the thing that kept me busiest but it wasnt.
In laws moved
Sister moved in with us for almost a month.
And now towards the last couple days this month they are moving again.
Dad been in and out of hospital
Grandpa minor form of cancer.
And other things. Ive got 7 different peoples mail coming to this house at the moment.
It got to be a lot towards the end dealing with all of the moving I took a bit of time off of trading. I havent traded since mid march, and I havent had a solid trading day since Feb 18.
Life took over this one.
Performance suffered, Number suffered.
My big deal this year was performance.
I lost focus completely towards mid march as I kept taking bad trade after bad trade before enough was finally enough and stopped.
I told myself I need to get my shit together, and this life stuff needed to pass.
I did hella research into my stats and got tons of huge positives to take into next quarter.
I still had the occasional blow up. Almost all of them due to come compliance error, mainly from settling for less intraday.
Others from not as problematic issues but the rare pop up of another.
-200$ a day seems like a good max stop.
Mainly because I had a lot of -300 days, and 200 is a bit less than avg daily win.
This also works out nice to roughly 2 trades.
What went wrong?
Not adapting my new routine.
I cant keep trying to convince myself when things take up a lot of mental capital, I slip. I trade worse. I take bad trades repeatedly and make same mistakes back to back.
And I keep trading.
There was just too much happening around me that when the warning signs in my trading showed, I needed to step back, loook at my numbers and tell myself something is wrong and something needs to change.
It took too long for me to stop trading but
I got to work.
I had enough data/trades to start looking at winners and losers and see what needs improving.
And I found tons of it and have another big step up in my ways of trading the market.
What a surprise it circles back to do more of what works and less of what doesnt.
Finding the solution to the problem is what matters most and ive got a lot of new solutions.
What went well?
Digging for new findings.
Spreading my spreadsheet out to new ideas. More detailed stats.
Sentiment tracker
Performance wise I made great improvments in not taking profits too early.
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NUMBERS
-$1180
63 / 173 36%
67% Compliance
-14TradeR
Of 110 Losers
-46 Full -1TradeR Losers
-13 100$ losses
-28 More than -1TradeR losers
-8 more than -100R$ losers
Avg win 68
Avg loss -50
Avg risk winners 51
Avg risk losers 57
Things were ok and steady halfway through. Then last half is when life came into play and things fell apart.
Trades and winners still performing as usual. Wins work right away. Im keeping my majority of wins that hit +2R
Losing trades are NOT working in favor right away. Thats why I start small and add to winners.
Pretty consistent numbers there still.
The big reasons I lost money towards the end ultimately is focus. I lost focus. I started shooting at anything intraday. Getting in too early. Not waiting enough to see it. Not being ok with it leaving without me.
I also did plenty of stock elimination throughout the quarter. Names I had a bunch of losses on earlier on, I no longer watch to trade anymore.
I fully expect my trading to be very limited this next quarter. As always Ive got more rules to protect my trading from myself and that the way I need to be. I have to have my guards up so I dont slip.
There should be plenty of days I dont have anything to do. And thats great. I know exactly what constitutes an A grade setup, or a B. or a C. I avoid the Cs. And I size down on the Bs, only if there are no As that day.
It hurts to see the numbers but it isnt the end of the world. Deep review always leaves me feeling a fresh start. Im happy to get on the horse again with new plans of attack.
GOALS
2022 GOALS
Create separate R$ chart to track money consistency next to tradeR performance
-in Daily, in Monthly
-I did this and have a different way of measuring how I captured the moves overall on the day. 50% is the goal and I just met it.
Process for profit taking
-overext? Too far too fast?
-How much size cut where and when
-Did that early on. Got it down good.
Create R$ process for trade setups. A, A+, Strong names, Bottom poppers etc.
-I really got it down now as I did the review.
-Objective numbers that meet certain criteria for ABC
Dig deeper into TradeR and R$. What stands out, is there any notable difference to help improve process?
-This is going to be the one going forward to work on. I need to expand spreadsheet still to take a deeper look
Find better way to record stats on momentum adds and risk levels. Separate OG stop level, risk, and Momo stop level, risk.
-Did that early on.
Charts on Sentiment Tracker
-Did that early on. Beauty.
1Hr chart significance with 9/20 at open or later in day.
-Yes. Also did early on.
More detail on type of trade I am taking. Top bottom 2nd day pre breakout etc.
-Did that this review by defining A B C setups. A certain # of variables must be met before deciding to take the trade, both intraday and daily.
Learn when to step on the gas and go for it.
-Not quite. I know when my best setups are present, but tying in with market theme is tough.
Trade BIGGER on BIG A+ Setups.
-I did try. And failed hard a few times. Everything has to be just right. The daily setup. The intraday setup. AND market conditions. I cant be late, I cant be early, I have to be just right.
Just like Setups, Have a ranking order for goals for each month.
-Not quite. Not sure this one fits me. I work on things as they come to me. Some I can prioritize right here and now because I think about it and am there to do it. Sometimes things take a backseat for a bit. Its just trading. Take your trade, log your stats, review.
When detail on setups is known, find how far in favor they go on average.
-%ATR?
-3x R?
-BO level?
-This one also worth getting into next qtr. 50% can be goal, but why not focus on 100%? Its a game of averages I have constantly explored, but not in how far my trades go to lock in the gains.
Learn more about emotions and trading. Fear and Greed. How it affects me and gets in my way. Control or manage.
-I did learn plenty, but ultimately deciding keeping track of individual emotion scores did not help me enough to keep doing it. My weakness is myself and my impulses. The more rules and guidelines I have, the less I stray from what I know works best for me.
Have a strong understanding of my ABC Game process of recording performance and emotions.
-Yesyesyes
Ensure profit taking rule on +2R moves
-Overall yes. A couple slip ups, ultimately got it down good.
Re-read Key points (risk, emotions etc..) and update with thoughts on old beliefs
-I did and did have new beliefs.
So overall here, im doing great on my yearly goals. Performance does not indicate it though.
I believe trading is one of those things that you can keep getting better at, but the results wont always agree with what youve been getting better at.
I know myself now better than I did when I started this year. I know my trading better as well. Does that mean I did better? My review tells me yes, but my stats tell me no.
You are only as good as the stocks you trade. My review told me I was trading garbage stocks, I came up with rules to eliminate garbage stocks. I came up with rules to NOT trade certain setups. I no longer trade everything that has just my seutp alone. It needs more. My stats tell me.
GOALS
-Expand spreadsheet to include R$
-Review winners to see how far in favor on average they go depending on certain factors
-ATR
-Market help?
-TradeR multiples
-BO levels
-How far on daily?
-If market helping
-5min 20ma? 9ma?
-Eliminate most of your garbage trading. No C setups. No intraday C setups.
-Expand on intraday score. Is is possible for me to get the score before I trade
-Trade A and B setups with separate risk.
-Size into A+
-Stop trading. 2 losers or -200$ on day
-Step away from trading when
-Performance is going bad
-Continued compliance issues
-Life smacks me with too many things to do
-Review this quarters findings and see if they still worked and made sense
-Winners analysis again. New 10/10?
CHANGES MADE
-Majority of trades now looking to take 2$ or less premium
-Rearranged spreadsheet
-Eliminated several irrelevant daily tags
-Added a couple relevant tags
-Rewrote Trade Grading system for objectivity
-Daily watchlist cutoff number at 60%
-Entry system score based on intraday variables
-Eliminated Invidual emotional varibles, added emotional grade to trade grade system.
-Added objectivity to variables. Clear rules.
- -200$ Max L
SUMMARY
-Prem 1.5$ and less is sweet spot
-Trades at bell work best if big fast name.
-Only 2 variables mattered most. Small move into, at D level
-1st min avoided if no pmkt activity
-A score of 8 is the cutoff. A 7 has to have clear market theme or other very significant action
-STOP TAKING LOWER PROBABILITY TRADES
-A step further, STOP WATCHING LOWER PROBABILITY SETUPS
-Market direction must be in favor of trade. I do not make money if SPY and Q are not trending with my idea
-Settling for less intraday and risking up on nonsense are my 2 account killers
-Overall winners are happening on the shortside. This should be obvious as to why.
-Pre BO trades, PB Trades at BO level (random), Are worst performers
-2nd day BO trades, PB Failure trades, are best performers.
-If Bottom trade, had best be a short or A+ Long
-Mid trades need clear market direction and help, theme or A+
-Top is best performer
-60% of all tags is cut off
-Relative Strength/Weakness and Consistent PA are 2 major variables
-95% wins have 1+ RVOL, tape, 1HR, market help, and from vwap.
-Grading system is completely objective. No room for guessing.
-Grading scoring system not limited to daily, now intraday as well.
-Nothing good happens past down 200$
-A major take away, is when I start bad, It does not get better.
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