Februrary 2025
-$1211
1st Week -$60
22 Trades, 6 names. 7 Trades combined.
BGC Max R 1.27R, result -$85
Risked .11c, Got up to 15c, that means stop is breakeven, and partial is taken on a 1min 9ma basis.
I did not take the partial. I held out for more. There is a very clear spot to take partial on aloss ov vwap and breakdown underneath and i didnt take anything off. Would have been a small win, instead greed took over and we have a small loss.
PAYO Max R 2, result +$275, +.55R
Risked .25c, got up to +.45c, captured .15c
Kind of unlucky knd of not. Had huge pop at bell that ended up retracing 25c in 1 min. I wrote that 11.15 had big buyer and loss of whole number was obvious spot to take. I was much too slow. It is impressive that even a second of hesistaiton can result in amore than 50% loss in potential profits. I have to be there and I have to act.
2nd half of trade I held another day which saw the same pop at bell, then a .20c loss in 2 min. I held on too long here and that dropdown lost the 1hr9ma and then from there my exit was intradya pivot from prev day near 11. It was pretty obvious but again I held too long here and have it all day as it continued to give up.
CANG Max R 1.1 result +$20, +.2R
Risked .15 got up to +.18
Wild open, pop and drop to lod, then rip to new hod, then lose vwap and slowly give it all back. Did good keeping the tiny win/breakeven. Was up 1R, stop moved up.
EHTH Max R 1.6R, +$80, +.3R
Same as CANG, rip at bell, slowly give it all back. Came right to BO point and retreated. Didnt take any off as I wanted to see the BO. Gotta hold for the big wins to come so no regrets.
RBBN Max R +1.3R, -$240, -1R
Risk .08, got .09, shouldve bailed faster. In and out real quick on this. Less than 20min, I very well may have not noticed I was up +1R and just held through to normal stop.
Looking at chart it is very obv stop at lod just under my entry for a loss of .03cents. I do remember loving this setup so chances are i gave it more room to work
EBAY 2 trades. -$106 total. +.7R, -1R
Huge $1 move in 5min at the open, promptly gave it all back. This time i dId not make the same mistkae I did in EHTH, i took my partial as there is a lot of room below to retrace. EHTH was a $10 stock so a large move is pennys compared to EBAY. Took partial but back to b/e so out rest.
2nd trade it held up throughout the day while market sold off. I wrote I was not comfortable holding overweekend as last 2 fridays we have huge sell offs to open monday, so I increased my stop. Got stopped out near the close.
Difficult call here. Market theme at moment was gap down monday and I was in a loser, so i stopped out at intraday level with 1hr MAs still under and rising. Trade itself told me i needed to stay in but market conditions made me concerned. So I had a loser going into the weekend. I think It was a fine call. Was it a mistake? I dont think so. It did end up not gapping down monday and re moved to new highs 2 days later after a lot of real choppy action. Tough trade. Next.
2nd Week
Pretty eventful week. Deserves some thought.
EFC Max R .2, -$430, -1.4R
Hurts, Clear entries, never got the gusto to break for me. Gap down 2 days later, didnt panic, gave 5min orb, saw a bounce gave clear stop spot, and ticked it out. I was the bottom. From there it ripped half a point over the next few days with no clear re entry.
Sometimes its obvious, sometimes not. This was not a clear re entry without taking a larger risk, smaller size, and anticipating a breakout with no retrace. not easy. As much as i want to justify and find a re entry spot i just cant.
ATAT +.5R, -$374, -.8R
Hurts. Same as EFC, fine start to trade, next day gap down, orb fine, retraced, gave clear spot, hit it and out. didnt go much further. And then rips 2 points higher non stop. Never hit the 1min 50ma no pbs.
Again not a clear way to get back in without smaller size and the hopes of a pb to rebuild.
APG +.6R, -$344, -.9R
Great setup, failed on a gap down next day. Lucky to get a good bounce and bailed.
CAAP -.3R, -$255, -1.3R
Bad exit, spready name and missed a bit on exit. Just a loss.
OBDC +2.5R, $920, +2.2R
Short quick trade, got the pop next day, took it off, lost the 9 1hr ma and all out fast.
ACVA +1.5R, -$24, +0R
Decent pop next day, but spent the rest of the day giving it all back. lost lod,m i wrote i was away from desk and stopped out on new lod. Which once up +1R was aligned with breakeven.
Question here is shoudl this be a small win than breakeven. PT still out .40cents. Ehj i dont think so. Just a nothing trade here.
PPTA +.1R, - $374, -.9R
Trade waws fine here but size is not ok. Way too large. SATA score not strong, popped up on my strong industries only. Score and A+ score not great. Just not enough here to be risking on an A setup, this is a B setup.
CXDO +4R, +$957, +2.7R
Trade was great, took a few days but eventulaly exploded. Main issue is on exit day. Market was dumping at bell, I had just exited 3 other trades. I beleive I exited on fear and speculation rather than my methodology. I wrote market pullback got real nasty, we have gap under to fill, feels like i would be waiting for this to pb a few percent then find new bot before turn up again better safe than sorry in this case. if market was sdtrong I would hold and watch ltf mas, but with market conditions, feels like obviously going lower for a few days.
Key word is Feels here.
Given the following... 3 exits on 3 trades (2L 1 W). Platform Issues, computer restart. And market dump and clear space to move lower. CXDO Also following market and dropping, that is a lot of negative aspects to handle and still hold a long. As Im typing it is respecting the 9 1hrma and contiunues to hold. I ended up getting out at the now LOD as it bounced back .20cents, as did the market and in my case another few hundred dollars.
The question is what should I have done. The only thing that matters is the market and the stock I am in. The 9 1hr ma is a pretty tight aggressive way to look at taking my last bit off the trade. Clearly it was a strong stock with a gap higher.
In this case I gave myself an excuse to make an exception. I saw all the negative aspects of the market and was also feeling the negative aspects of platform issues and taking a couple Ls (which really isnt a bother to me but it was there at the time) in an unrelated industry. Fact is, strong stock, strong performance, clear strength that held. When I catch a good move, it tends to keep going and i need to stay in it until it clearly tells me its time to get out. I need to follow my rules and methods, when I dont things like this happen as it is now .40cents higher than my last exit on same day and i feel like a fool getting out at LOD into the rising 9 1hr ma.
me thinking i am smarter than the market and allowing fear of giving back to take over actions
QD +3.5R, +$504, +1.6R
Clean clear trade. Huge pop. Took it near top. Next day straight give back of all. Took it off on new lod break. 5min orb hurt in this case but is what it is. Most dont do this.
ECPG +1.8R, +$234, +.6R
Loved this setup. Big spread and low vol name though. And it hurt in the end. This was another issue of not taking my money into strength and waiting on a pb. The PB was literally almost a whole R move for me.
This trade also hit my PT and I did not take any partial. My own fault.
It hit the big BO point, and I wanted more. It didnt give naymore the prev day and I held all overnight and then saw a dollar move lower in the first minute.
I needed to take partial on the 19th right after it broke out and sold back a few pennys. Right into the bell.
3rd Week
RM +.5R, -$508, -1.4R
Good setup. Not picutre perfect but definitely worth the take. Spread low vol crushed me on exit at open 2 days after entry.
Looking closer, I held onto this way too long. I needed to bail on this one on a stop move up to prev lod at 36
BGC 0R, -$136, -1R
Great setup that just failed.
4th Week
Market got weak, Utilities/Defense got strong.
UVV +.1R, -$255, -1.05R
Feels forced. Tight LTF MAs, Tight VA, But wide HTF MAs and 9wma is not rising. Definitely settled for less here.
CPK +1.5R, $232, .8R
Huge spread. Kinda screwed myself. It got to a penny of huge bo level, tapered off, took 1st partial as i should. NExt day sold off a tad. Market had strength, indsutry saw weaknesss. I bailed as bid was near breakeven. I was the bottom tick then ripped to highs again.
Thats the risk I take trading names like this. Protect the gains or risk it past breakeven.
BKH +.1R, -$231, -.5R
Good setup. Only thing missing is 9wma closer.
I moved my stop on this trade or id still be in it. I noticed 9.20 on 1hr are tight and coiled, we broke below and closed under into bell.
I am caught up in LTF over HTF again. Everything else was fine and rising. Next day it rips and breaks out and im not in it.
Here is where I started getting sloppy.
Market took a large downturn, things are not the same. I am trading longs like they will still rip asap and any random buying will come in to propel a stock.
NTAP +.15R , -$345
Took at end of day. I had taken losses before hand earlier in the day. It was not above all EMAs and had to reclaim a 4hr declining 9ma. Not the setup i usually take, therfore I got trapped and took the full L.Needed to skip this trade.
SLGN +.2R, -$350
Bad trade, not compact enough, 9wma not near price, not in order, not clear trend up. B setup. Given conditions and recent performance this needed to be an avoid. Caught up in LTF over HTF
UVV +.15R, -$372
Bad trade, not compact enough, 9wma not near price, not in order, not clear trend up. B setup. Given conditions and recent performance this needed to be an avoid. Caught up in LTF over HTF
Holding too long is my biggest issue this month. Both winners and losers.
-Trying to outsmart the market by moving my stop from original plan also hurt. Getting out based on LTF action when I am taking the trade based on HTF action.
-Im getting greedy. I had a good start and now I am holding full size too long again.
1st partial based on +1R
2nd partial based on 1hr 9ma loss + intraday pivot.
-If market conditions are good, then take another half, leave 1/4 to ride to 4hr9ma/1hr20ma
-Exit rules are necessary to cut to protect, and hold to maximize gains.
-Partials taken only after PT is hit
-+1R, stop to breakeven
-After 1st partial taken, rest is out on close under 1hr 9ma.
-Open always deserves a 5min ORB before cutting any shares.
-Unless to breakeven after profitable, then get out.
-Missing large moves just because risk is wide is not reason to skip the trade. Get in small size, it goes, you have something, it doesnt go, good, now you can build back.
Do not get full size right from the start when risk is wide on re entry. Full size comes best from TIGHT setups, not wide.
-Selection is getting loose. I am focuiong too muihc on LTF tightness and not enough HTF confluence/tightness.
It is also affected from my own industry selection. I should look for SATA mianly, and then confirm with my own industry spreadsheets and then look inside same sector to see if there are other setups.
What I have been doing is normal SATA work, then looking at my industry sheets, and when looking at SATA from industry sheets, strength is not there. There is no correlation.
SATA > HTF setups > LTF for entry today or later in week.
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STAT REVIEW
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PTaGEFzA8B6bbYdAJp-7y3wHPAXCzgkNKVR6syDdLO4/edit?usp=sharing
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36% WR
Winners 12
Risk $361
PT R 1.57
MFE R 2.85
MAE R -.32
Avg Net R 1.57
Avg win $648
Avg MFE $1211
Avg MAE -$115
Losers 22
Risk $288
PT R 2.23
MFE R .32
MAE R -1
Avg Net R -.95
Avg loss -$256
Avg MFE $101
Avg MAE -$264
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1st glance I am happy to see my losers have smaller risk than winners.
Means I am pushing better size on better setups and they are working in my favor. Also adding to winners and not starting full size but adding as it ticks in my favor to get to full risk.
As usual, winners rarely go more than halfway to my stop. Which is prev lod, sometimes it is a closer very clear prevday intraday pivot + clear rising 1hr MA loss with distance below to the 50.
And mirrored opposite my loser only go a few ticks in my favor.
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Note all in all here my sample size is not that big. So no reason to call these hard facts and make trading plan adjustments on any of this yet. But they are flags to look out for.
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58% of wins I got in before prev HOD triggered.
77% of losers I got in before prev HOD triggered.
Of the ones I did not, as in I got in them at the prev HOD, they did not go at all in favor. A max +.1R
Risk was smaller on average so I was not adding into these.
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A stat I am looking at is did the stock have a higher price the next day after I got all out. A higher price than my exit. I use the MFE to compare.
I compare my In and my Out to the next days MFE
I need to expand this
I also need to see how much it would have gone against me to get that MFE.
75% of winners had a higher MFE the next day after all out. 75% on day 2, and 83% day 3
81% of losers had a higher MFE the next day after all out, then down to 50% the next 2 days.
Overall I am picking good setups. These are pretty big numbers to tell me to hold on more.
The next question though is how much is that MFE in my favor. Is it a few percent, or is it a tick or two?
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83% winners had SATA >60%
81% of losers had SATA >60%
33% of W had come from Top Industry
59% of L had come from Top Industry
This tells me im finding winners mainly from SATA, not my industry sheets.
So this doesnt mean scrap my industry sheet setups, it means to be much more picky from them.
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INTERNALS
83% of winners had favorable internals in the days leading up to the day of entry.
47% of losers did.
20% of winners had a TICK/TICKQ LOD of -6 or lower.
37% of losers had a TICK/TICKQ LOD of -6 or lower.
As far as ADD/Q I need more data, but as far as positive or negative, or how far in either direction, nothing notable.
Stock Avg Industry Avg
LT Rel Str 14 9.2
LT Performance 5.4 4.7
MT Rel Str 12.6 8.4
MT Performance 1.5 .8
ST Rel Str 5.8 5
ST Performance 1.4 1
Stock Avg Industry Avg
LT Rel Str 9 10
LT Performance 4.7 4.4
MT Rel Str 6.9 8
MT Performance .2 .7
ST Rel Str 9.8 8
ST Performance 1.4 1.1
My winners are outperfomers in every aspect compared to there peers. Every metric I measure performance/rel str/technical wise they do better.
W
Stock Industry Avg
Stock Score 122 113
Fund 40 41
Rel Str 36 29
Tech 60 50
Comparison 32 32
Fund Sector 18 18
Fund Ind 10 11
Tech Sector 4 4
Tech Ind 7 6
Avg Rel Str 1.12 1.05
LT Rel Str 1.29 1.11
MT Rel Str 1.11 1.04
ST Rel Str 1.01 1.01
Ind Rel Str 1.09 1.03
L
Stock Industry Avg
Stock Score 118 114
Fund 41 41
Rel Str 27 30
Tech 50 51
Comparison 33 34
Fund Sector 18 18
Fund Ind 11 11
Tech Sector 4 4
Tech Ind 6 6
Avg Rel Str 1.04 1.07
LT Rel Str 1.11 1.21
MT Rel Str 1.01 1.04
ST Rel Str 1.01 1
Ind Rel Str 1.02 1.05
Clear as day Losers do not have the same stats here. Winners are industry outperformers in nearly all areas.
Score overall is higher other than Fund scores. But relating to above post, Fund is least important aspect in performance.
Stock Industry Average Stock Industry Average
ROIC 14 7 11 6
FCF 25 16 11 7
FCF Yeild 10 14 18 10
FCF/Earnings 3 5.5 .9 1
Gross% 65 63 48 46
Op% 3 8 11 3
Profit% 14 12 8 3
ROE 3 7 13 4
EBITDA% 8 13 17 9
Avg% 18 17 17 11
MktCaptoRev 2.5 4.2 1.9 3.5
Cash Ratio 2.1 1.3 .5 1.2
Current Ratio 2.9 3.1 1.6 2.8
Quick Ratio 2.7 2.9 1.2 2.6
EPS -.1 6.4 4 4.6
PE 7.2 14.4 11 14
PEG 3.3 1.3 .8 1.3
PB 1.7 2.7 3.6 2.7
PS 2.7 4.6 2.1 7.2
PFCF 20.4 17.9 14.4 9
Debt Ratio .6 .7 .7 .7
DE 3 2.6 2.9 1.5
Dbt/MktCap 3.7 1.1 4.3 1.2
Really nothing striking here. Percentages are higher mostly. Ratios less for the most part. Really nothing notable.
ROIC and AVG % is higher.
Industry Average is higher almost all around too. Picking from industries with strong fundamentals.
Edge is with the winners here. Numbers are almost all just slightly better.
50% seems to be a threshold number here. If more than half shows up, that matters.
As for how many, it seems to be just having 1 in each category is what matters.
Vol 42 48
TAKEAWAYS
B Setups deserve less risk. Any B setup.
Techincal A setups were more important the Fundamental A setups.
Small cap tends to work better.
500k avg daily vol seems to be a top limit for winners.
LT/MT/ST perf/rel str in winners are all outperforming.
Winning trades are industry outperformers in all Scores. But especially in Rel Str ratios.
Relative Strength seems to be a main driver for W vs L
60% of winners had a next x G% chance higher than 50% for frequently appeared dates.
The appearance of at least 1 next x G% chance in the counts is a necessity.
D/W for selection. 4hr/1hr 9ma tight and touching for green flag entry.
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