March 2025

+$840

Very quiet, Once market bottomed I finally found a few setups and got going. First trade in March taken on the 18th.  Main reason being the market down. When market moves like that, all others tend to follow, which means I have less strong industries to look at, which means less setups then less trades. Once market reclaimed d9ma I knew we were closer and I started seeing some setups again. 

One good method I had is not chasing at the open. I had plenty of setups to watch but the 1hr.4hr mas just werent quite right yet. So many times Did I see these names break above prev day high only to give it all right back and reset for a better curl up of those MAs. Saved a lot of money by being patient. 

Started Strong for 1st trade

ARIS +$2057

Net R 3.12, MFE 3.7, MFE $2500

Started trade on the 17th, sideways. Added 18th Sideways then 19th broke out strong. Whole time trade looked great with very tight 1hr and 4hr coil, just didnt go until it finlaly did. 

I wrote how well it kept looking during all my adds. Clear buyers on Tape. Clear leader in Industry. Clear strength during SPY dips. 

Took partials as it hit PT and kept breaking significant levels. All out on loss of 1hr9ma and close under. 

AHR +$210

Net R 1, MFE 1.9, MFE $430

MAs mismatched but tight which led to smaller risk to start until it could prove itself. And later it did

Wrote also a leader in Ind

Exited all once lost lod next day and under 1hr 9ma.

Then I got Sloppy. Poor Risk Control. Forcing trades. Took way too large of losses on B setups.

UMH -$600 

I was away from desk. Got fill and increased size.  To start the trade I was at $500 risk, which is an A+ grade level of risk, and then I added even more on pbs. A declining 20wma and mismatched 20+9 Dma is obviously not an A+ setup. 

AHR -$456

 is too far from MAs, it is not tight, This is a runner momo trade, not a consolidation breakout. This is not my A grade setup. It does not deserve a $400 risk. 

TRTX -$100

Again poor structure. MAs all jumbled. Not in order, some not rising, some not tight. Just wasnt ready yet and forced it. 

These trades are what led to me digging into Defining A and B setups technically and specifically. 

Then I brought it back together

EPD +$45

MFE +$590 +1.75R

Shame this one. Another 'away from desk' scenario and didnt take my partial because I wasnt looking, when then led to a flat trade. I was on a phone interview, it hit PT, I didnt see, I saw later and held on to whole size rather than just take the smaller profit. Would be another +$150 on this one. 

Great setup and move. Clear leader in Industry again I wrote. Major market sell off I believe led to failure here and I got out before breakeven. Looked to get in next day again if it was there. It was. I was away from desk and chickened out and didnt get in at clear entry point. 

STWD -$306

MFE +$109

Really just a loss here, good setup but major market wekness led to loser.

Ultimatley what I need to do here, is clarify what makes a setup techincally a B-, B, B+, A-, A, A+

It must be based on.....

    MA Tightness

    MA Curl

    MA in Order

    MA touching price

    50 Dma/Wma

    Anch Vwaps

    Rel Str

    Value Area tops

    Failed BO Opposite Direction

An A+ setup obviously had all of these. So is it as simple as if it has -1 then its an A, -2 an A- etc?

Also, do I look at only D and W? Or include 1hr and 4hr as well.

After some thought, I think I need to base 90% of it on D and W. Hourly is my trigger. I dont take the trade if there is no correct trigger. The setup itself on D and W can be marked A or depending on how many above variables are checked off. And then come time to look to buy, I look at the hourly and make sure we are all good to go.

If we are not good to go, I dont trade. If we are, then orders are in. Now the other 10% comes from the hourly If the 4hr is a bit mismatched, then that would eliminate A+ possibility. But still an A and still as my stats tell me, is worth taking. 

If all aligned on D and W, then morning comes and hourly is all good too, then we have an A+ trade. 

BUT we also have my old past review that clarified A+ setups.

SATA 60%+

Undervalued

Prev W Candle G

50WMA in play

9/20 W/M MA Tight

Queries 70%+

Above Several Anch V

Rising MA

All MAs under

So now we have a giant list here we can tally up and check off to see whats A and B. This is all off of the D and W.

18 total checks

    MA Tightness  D/W

    MA Curl   D/W

    MA in Order   ALL

    MA touching price    D/W

    50 Dma/Wma

    Anch Vwaps

    Rel Str

    Value Area tops

    Failed BO Opposite Direction

    SATA 60%+

    Undervalued

    Queries 70%+

    Prev W Candle G

    Industry Strong

A 16 or 17 is A+ I would give a trade not having 1 or 2 checkbox and still consider it best of best. 

15/14 is A

13/12 A-

11/10 B+

9/8 B

7 or less B-

I also need to look at 9/20ma on 1hr and 4hr. I want to know if any of them on winners are not rising/tight/touching/In order

15 Wins I can look at

Rising

1   ///////////////  100%

4   ///////////// 87%

Tight

1 //////////// 80%

4 ////////// 66%

Touching

1 ////////////// 93%

4 /////////// 73%

In Order

1 /////////////// 100%

4 ///////// 60%

The clear giveaway is 9/20ma on 1hr chart must be Rising, Tight, Touching and In Order. If they are not, I wait until they are.

4hr there is a little leeway but not much. 1hr is what is more important. 

Now to add the $ to the grade

A+ $700 total Risk

A $400

B+ $250

B $150

Compared to my old, this weights heavier on the better grades, and lower on the worse grades. Which by my stats is clearly what should done.

A notable situation I recognize is me trading when I know im going to be off the desk. I see it time and time again that when I know I will eventually have to leave, or if I am gone, that is when a lot of problems happen both at and off the desk. Taking lesser setups, and then missing the good ones. 

If I am going to be away from the platform, I have got to recongize that this is when I tend to get sloppy. I have to tighten my selection. I have to have my stop limit orders to get in the trade. And I have to take the trade. All planned out in the morning, nothing new added middle of afternoon. All part of the plan. 

If im on my phone and a stock I wanted in on is setting up (MAs tight on 1hr and 4hr and rising) and price is about to make a new hourly high. That is my in. That is when I set the stop limit order and let it do its things while I go about my life. 

Just because I am away from desk doesnt mean I have to skip trades. Because I do the work in the monirng, and select the ones that are ready to pop, and then I buy them. 

Just becuase I am at my desk and about to leave it does not mean I have to get in a trade. The market gives me the signal to get in. I do not get in because I want in. I get in becuase it triggers. 

COMPARE THESE AND SEE IF STILL ACCURATE TO TRADES TAKEN

B Setups deserve less risk. Any B setup. 

    -Failed

Techincal A setups were more important the Fundamental A setups. 

    -True but then what. Less risk and be more selective technically.

Small cap tends to work better. 

    -Yes

500k avg daily vol seems to be a top limit for winners.

    -Not this month. 

LT/MT/ST perf/rel str in winners are all outperforming. 

    -True again. All but 2 trades were out performing. 2/3 winners. 

Winning trades are industry outperformers in all Scores. But especially in Rel Str ratios. 

    -Mix match here. Rel Str definitely. 

Relative Strength seems to be a main driver for W vs L

    -Yes

60% of winners had a next x G% chance higher than 50% for frequently appeared dates. 

    -Yes again.

The appearance of at least 1 next x G% chance in the counts is a necessity. 

    -All had a good amount. 

D/W for selection. 4hr/1hr 9ma tight and touching for green flag entry.

    -As we learned above, yes. 

Tough month. A month to really know when to be patient and wait to step on the gas. A number of distractions keeping me from staying focused. 

The grade system will help eliminate confusion around risk to speed up my morning. 

Selection will be better in that regard as well. Youre only as good as the stocks you trade.

D and W give me the tech grade. Hourly gives me the green light. Hourly must be rising, tight, in order and touching price to get in. 

Goal for April is to clearly define the technical grade of the setup and put on correct risk. Stick to the best filter out the rest.