2020 Half Year Review

At the beginning of 2020, I wasnt even trading. I had just gotten done deciding that I needed to stop trading for a few months until things settled down around me, that I could bring back 100% focus to trading. I was getting married, planning a wedding, moving/remodeling old house, slowly moving out of old apartment. Money was needed and it couldnt stay in a trading account.

I left my trading on a good note, lots of green, green from August to December

Win rate around 50%. Was doing very well, did not want to stop trading at all. But needed to. 

I cant believe how much of a different trader I am now compared to just 6 months ago. Id say about 85%-90% of all my entries were on breakouts. My RR stats averaged around 1.5 to 1 reward to risk. Stats weren't super consistent, neither was my process. There were a lot of ideas I had that I never acted on, or didnt want to try. I didnt have a process for how I can rate setups before the trade. 

Total change now. Started typing up the papers to get it in writing. For how I label trades, how I grade them, rate them before the entry. Now I rarely take breakouts, rarely taking that HOD scalp. Avg win is now double the loss, on a good day 3 times the size. Compliance is about~7% higher on average each week. WR is a little lower but thats to be expected with the new process for cutting losers faster. My average red days are down. I still have those random -$300 days, but they are once a week or two now. 

Everything has seen improvement. From the numbers, to the money, to my emotional and mental well being while trading. I was the guy that needed everything I did written down or else I would get lost or feel like something was missing every time im trading. Holes in my process needed to be covered and thought of before the next trade was put on. When I have that empty space in my head it gets filled with nonsense. Things that dont help. Thats still true to this point in my trading, now I just have less holes, less empty spaces. They still pop up every now and then and im glad they do. Lets get them all done and out of the way to be better tomorrow.

I think the biggest change in the past 6 months, is that I keep trying to reduce things. Trading should be really easy and take no thought, but preparing to trade, the right way, should take years and should be a never ending process. I focused a lot on the actual trading part for the past years, but not so much on everything else outside of the trade. I try and make it easier on myself before the trade happens, so that when the trade happens there is nothing left to do but let it be. 

I think the sad truth is that trading really is one of the easier things to do. Buy low sell high. Take the high probability setups. I spent so long trying to make my trading my own thing, which is 100% what you should be doing, but there are other aspects that you cant ignore just because you want to ignore it. For the longest time I wanted to try buying dips and 'catching' the trade, but kept to scalping breaks because thats what I had been doing, thats what was making me money and I kept at it. And now there are periods where that way of trading flat out does not work. Its actually happening to me now, I havent take a scalp breakout trade in a month simply because I am not seeing any out there right now that fit all the criteria I need to see before I take that trade. Just isnt there. 

I kept trying to buy high, sell higher and never gave myself a shot at the other side of things. I was good at reading the tape, I can read the flow of a market and identify the nuances at significant locations. But I never did it trying to catch a dip. And I wish I did, because my performance has gotten a lot better. The main area thats better is the risk. 

When I took the breakout, im all in at once on one price trigger. And whatever happens happens. I take the full loss so be it. I get the win at PT so be it. With entering on buying the dip, I am not full size to start. Why should I be. Entries at these areas are not 'confirmed' strong, they show me either a lack of weakness, or passive, sometimes aggressive buying coming in. I get in small when I see 1st signs of strength, and I continue to add as the trade proves itself right then and there. This way if im wrong, im not even close to sized up yet and can take a much smaller hit.

Back to trading breakouts, you cannot scale up your trading taking breaks. You would eventually reach a point that there is not enough liquidity, and you will have to add size on either a pullback, or just take the market as it keeps running, which in turn hurts your RR. 

Im starting to take trades that are on average around 4:1 sometimes as high as 20:1 if I get a real good price and see it on the tape. There is nothing else out there that reduces my stress, knowing I can 

1. Take a tiny loss to start if im wrong

2. Add to winners as it proves its a winner

3. Know I can lose 5 times in a row and 1 good win will cover those losses and then some

Thats what I mean by the biggest change in my trading is reduction. Reducing stress in all ways. 

So im able to reduce stress by trading smaller, by catching dips, taking small losses, and adding to winners. What about outside of trading. 

Well I need a plan of attack before every trade I take. What kinds of trades do I take. I look for setups on a Daily chart where I believe the most traders, short term, medium term, and longer term, will take action. Why? Thats where the most volume and biggest moves usually happen. I want those moves. Other trades making decisions is what allows me to capture the biggest and best wins of the day, day in and day out.

So I am simply finding levels on the D chart, labeling them, waiting for them to come into play, when I see what I want, im in. The end. It is simple. But theres so much thought process that went into it before hand. A deep understanding of why I want to do things this way and not any other way. And of course there are hundreds of other variables to think about throughout the day. Strong day? Weak? What about the sector? Is there a theme. What are internals doing? What time of day is it? Have we come from consolidation? Just getting out of it? Or maybe just getting into it. Wheres vwap? Do multiple levels line up at one small price area? Why do I not want to take this trade yet? What do I need to see in order to get involved? Maybe this trade will be a better setup tomorrow.

Too many questions to ask. But necessary to have an answer for all. You cant just ignore it. You cant go into the day not having a plan for it. Holes in your process that will get filled with emotion. And emotion leads to bad decision making which leads to bad trading which leads to RED numbers. 

My way of reducing this, is not really a plan, but experience. I really do think that there are some things in trading that only time and experience will teach you the answers. Its learning what to avoid and when given the circumstances you are looking at during that next trade. I know that sometimes price is approaching a level I want to get long off of, but its not the time yet. Maybe it comes in after a failed breakout higher. Maybe the SPY is dumping and you dont want to be long in front of it. Maybe you see a lot of selling coming in as its getting closer and dont want to get in front of a train. 

Theres also a ton of conditions that lead to me avoiding a trade. But these arent necessarily rules that are written in my process papers. They are conditions that ive learned from many past experiences that I want to avoid that scenario. If I wanted to write down each one of these conditions, I could certainly try. But these conditions arent a part of my strategy. I think its kind of like touching a hot stove top. You dont need to write it down after it happens, in trading after it happens enough times, you just dont do it anymore. 

Point im trying to make, is im thinking less and trading more. And its working well not just on trading, but on me as a trader. 

I spent a lot of time trying to find a consistent process for tagging trades and how to rate them 1-10. I emailed Mike Bellafiore and he said 'Consider the big picture for what the trade is mostly about.' To me that means, its a Triangle breakout on the D, Recently had Earnings, and given other factors on D + 30minute chart that I look for I rate that trade 5/5. The other 5 stars come from what the stock is doing intraday. Volume, Tape, relative strength, failed breaks, clean price action. I used to tag each and every single one of these factors and it wasnt benefiting me. If I find out a stock that has volume, tape cue, on a daily triangle for me has a WR of 45%, but a stock that has volume, tape cues, AND relative strength off of a D triangle has a WR of 60%, does that really mean that much to me? Is it really worth diving into and looking at those tiny details? No. The bottom line is, the more variables you can stack the better. So If I got a lot, its a 10/10, if not so many 7/10, if not much at all, its an avoid. Reduce, think less, work smarter not always harder. 

And not saying that everything ive put into trading was a waste of hard work. Not at all. It is important to me to have that distinction between knowledge and understanding. Someone could've told me all this when I started and it would have helped for sure. But the lessons learned that are now ingrained in me, never to leave, are always going to be there. Its just as important to know why you shouldn't do something, as much as why you should. 

Enough rambling though I want to talk about each month.

MARCH 

Commission free is the way to go. You may be surprised to see that while I was green 5 months in a row, I actually came out negative due to commission. No need to hurt myself anymore. Switched to TradeStation and no regrets. Dont need to use Jigsaw anymore either so that saves money as well. Its got my matrix, and customization time and sales so it was the obvious choice. Very happy with that.

I stopped doing daily videos almost as soon as I came back. Flat out didnt want to do it anymore and again, reduction. It was just another time taker. An unnecessary distraction. 

Coming back into trading, I picked up right where I left off. Took it slow for a day, realized I was fine and went back to normal size pretty quickly. Shortly after had my best trade/day/week of career. Was just there taking the right trades at the right time. A lot of opportunity was it. 

I really started working on adding to my winners this month. I was getting good reads on names and recognized that when I did, I could add to the trades and find ways to get bigger. Tape adds I called them, and still do those today.

Tried to keep it slow and simple. Wasnt doing the blogs everyday yet. Continued on until I ran into problems. If its not broken dont fix it. 

APRIL

Started using blogspot for daily report cards. I like it a TON more because I dont have to deal with with writing it up on word after its all done. Instead now I open up the blog before the open, and just write about every single thing im looking at when im in a trade. Really helped me stick with the flow of the market/trade and stay objective.

This was the month I started getting serious again. Writing out problems, typing up papers and processes. Just thinking as I type it out. It usually takes a pretty bad day or few days for me to get to that point and I git it good. Gave back 2/3rds of what I made in March. Wrote a post about it.

Main problems were over trading, not knowing what needed to change. As always review helps. Looked at my data, common positives and negatives. Decided I needed to change my expectations on my trades. Majority of my best wins never went negative. So if a trade went negative, I already know its not my best win. I started cutting losers faster from this. 

I dug deep. I hate that feeling of being lost, and the only way I know out of it is from rigorous review. Its what I did, and guess what, dont feel lost anymore. Came up with good plans that I still use now to fix those problems. 

Towards the end of the month I also did an in depth scalp review. Which drastically increased my WR as well as p/l as I wasnt taking any dumb scalps anymore. Looking back at report cards, which I had started doing after enough red days, It looks like I was just chasing everything. Couldnt stay patient enough to wait for it to setup better. 

I also broke out in hives for the last couple of weeks. It showed in my trading. I got sloppy and gave back most of my money at the end of the month. I just wasnt able to break the habit, I kept doing whatever I felt like. More holes in my process.

I think this month made me realize that I dont believe in max loss days. Regardless of how I feel, or how red I am. It doesnt mean the next trade is going to be a loser, or one I shouldnt take. Now my stats do tell me once im down 250$ it usually doesnt come back, but it still doesnt sit right with me that I should give up on the day. There can still be a good trade out there and me being down doesnt change that. 

It was a tough month, but necessary on the path of profitability. Gotta make mistakes to know what not to do anymore. Id call it a productive month. 

MAY

Started getting my mojo back. Really kicked it into gear once I started buying dips. Started having really good RR trades seeing some at +15R. Its been a game changer for me and dont think ill go back to how I used to only get in on breaks. Its a way of me combining my strength at reading the tape and levels I want to trade off of. All goes back to my old trapped trader strat where youd have a range, breakout of the range into a HTF level, and watch it get rejected back in the range and that would be my in. High RR trades.

In this month I also did a good LT review. Finding the commonalities in my best winners. Doing this helped me solidify a strategy. Now I know what I need to see in all my trades before I take them.

The whole month more or less was me trying to get back on my feet after the ugly april. Finding ways to improve consistency and fill the gaps in my processes. Its like your own trading moves the same way a stock does with pullbacks. There are times all signs point higher and its time to step on the gas, and other times you have to pullback, slow down, do some research. May was the turning point from pullback to full speed ahead.

JUNE

In June I just got to work. Didnt change much, didnt need to. Things went well I had my plans I knew what I needed to do. It was time to just do it. Performance was very good. Ill do a quick monthly recap here.

Good p/l, the big stand out is the bigger red days. What happened? 

June 3 - Took 44 trades to start. Chopped to hell trading DKNG that had signs on tape for both directions. Sized up in GOOG poor trade location. Settled for less in a few others. 

June10 - Sized up on early morning trades, chased a bit, did not have correct levels and traded off of nothing. Settled for less later in the day. 

June19 - Left desk for an hour for errand. Came back and immediately sized up in a poor trade the minute I sat back down. Awful risk management, was too eager to get back to trading. Chopped myself up rest of day trying to get it back

Size seems to be the common problem here. Sizing up in trades that dont deserve it. Little too eager to put the size on on something that looks good. Im doing better though. More aware of it as I trade. Other issue was settling for less. Compliance was 83% and those 2 made up 70% of the issues. 

Numbers were great. 38% WR. +$1521. +156R. 135 breakeven. 65 Full -1R. 26 More than -1R. 

Avg win +$41

Avg loss -$19

13 winning days.

Really happy with only 26 more than -1R losses. Took 50 more trades than last month, and had 20 less full 1R losses and 13 less full -1R. Cutting losses is getting much better. 

Really starting to see my stats approach a 3:1 RR in almost every area. 

Best performers were in the Airlines. And ever since Ive been watching them everyday. Some cases you get some that line up just perfectly with a level im watching and the others give you hints if they are strong or weak. Some real nice moves. Worst performer was BA. And without looking I already know its trying reversals on it. 

Good things about this month is I really didnt give much thought to my trading. Ive ran in circles in my head so many times, that I know what the bottom line is. And I have to trade that and only that. 

HALF YEAR NUMBERS

I am most pumped about getting back to account highs. 

Lots of numbers.

$+3591

455 / 1236 37%WR

+253 R

80% Compliance

499 Breakeven 40%

323 Full -1R loss 26%

172 More than -1R loss 14%

Avg Win +$55

Avg Loss -$26

43/79 days Green

Avg Win day +$215

Avg Losing Day -$157

315k shares traded. Last year was 65k.

And lots of screenshots from tradervue.

Giving back a decent chunk of profits during the dead hours. Why I made new rules for myself I cant add right away early in a late day trade. 

I trade best when the stock is moving either +2% or -2%

More volume the better no surprise. 

Majority profits coming from days where stock is trading outside of yesterdays range. Breakouts, mainly comes to mind. Which is what im looking for after all. 

And some straight stats. 

These do vary a bit from my own spreadsheet. When I take 1 trade idea on AAL, I may have 5 different entries, recorded as 5 separate wins. With Tradervue it lumps them all into 1 win.

Good numbers though. Avg win twice the size of loss. Averaging 50$ a day. 40% WR just a bit higher than my own. Each trade expectancy is +9$. Green is good. 

And in terms of R.

And finally one of my favorite charts

This is a graph of my p/l on y axis, by Max adverse excursion on x axis. This shows me all my trades, winners and losers and how far they went against me before I closed it out. There is a very clear line, 

If I was to exit all of my trades if they hit -.6 R, I would have saved hundreds and hundreds of further losses, while only eliminating what looks like maybe 20 wins. I recently did this graph with my scalp trades and found the same thing at -.4R, so this graph still includes all of those trades.

Now when I trade, my stop is still tight and close from entry, and that 1R is still 1R, but considering how many cents it is, is much smaller. So to see that line at -.6R is fine, its just important to keep in mind I still need to be cutting them quick and possibly even quicker. I revisit this chart every month. In fact heres June

Pretty much the same thing. Just goes to show, that even with tightened stop, best trades still go right away never coming back.

Normally id do a best trades section here showing them all off. But at this point in my career theyre all the same thing. Clearly holding above levels, some kind of failed break against my bias, volume cues, tape cues, Trendline breaks. Market correlation. Its all the same. Best days come from capitalizing on opportunity and nothing else. Ive done the work to know what my best setups look like, and when they are there, I take it. If it goes great, if it doesnt, great. On to the next one. 

The main focus at this point needs to be on size. Sizing up.

GOALS FROM MAY

1. Come up with LT process. I got all the info I need now to have a concrete plan.

-Got it

2. Come up with process for LT re entry trades.

-Got it, get the fuck back in for your bigger idea to play out. Set alerts. When youre out, doesnt mean youre done with it.

3. Keep getting aggressive. Get really uncomfortable in those trades that I see it. Deal with the risk.

-yes.

4. Find more info on Early Entry trades

-The earlier it is in the day, the faster I have to react to getting in at price at levels in play. Its very quick and I have to be ready to get in at the next tick.

5. Research more on Time and Trading. This is a weird spot in my head. Ive felt for some time now there is a huge area of trading and time that I am clueless on. There are things that im missing and it feels like such a big area of expertise that I need to get better with.

-This is going to be an experience thing. There are gut feel reactions I have no where I say to myself 'im too early' but I cannot define it yet. Sometimes its just a feeling.

6. GET BACK TO THE GYM. Things are opening up again thank god, back to the program.

-Did and feels great.


BIGGEST PROBLEMS THIS HALF YEAR

-Holes in Process

Fixed for the most part as far as I can tell. I know new ones will pop up when they are supposed to. But currently in a pretty stable trading routine.

-Sizing

Too often, too many trades, too big on names that dont deserve it. I have plans now that tell me what the star rating is before I enter and thats my main key for size. Some cases I just flat out ignore it and do what I feel like. Goals for the end of the year

-Re entering

Every morning I have trade ideas that come from the daily chart. The way I trade is move to move. Im in, im out. And too often I miss the big picture idea and miss the bigger moves. There is a sweet spot im coming closer to in determining where I should be getting out, where I should be staying, re entering, or abandoning the idea all together. If its a winning trade, I need to be back in on any pullback, is where im at currently. The trade ideas originate at levels I have charted and see in play intraday, but after that 1st win, we are away from those levels and I find it hard to see spots to re enter. TLs and other previous levels from intraday are usually the spots I look for to get back in.

-Over trading

Mainly it came from not know exactly what my best setups were and trying to only trade those every day. Now that I have a much clearer idea of what I need to be trading, over trading doesnt happen too often anymore.


GOALS FROM LAST YEAR

So this is how I ended my report card from last years yearly review

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THINGS

Books

                -Market wizards re read

                -Markets in Auction re read

                -How we trade options

-Technical analysis using multiple timeframes(this one I feel Is going to be really big for where I’m at right now)

-Atomic Habits

-Can't Hurt Me

-MOMO Traders

Stats

                Tradervue. I am bailing on my google spreadsheet stats and going for gold in tradervue. It's got all I need in a more compact, easier to read and click, find data setting. The money was the main thing that turned me off for so long. But I think for simplicity sake it's time to get it and start using it.

Get more descriptive in HTF trades.

                -TBO HBO BO R

                -What else? (Mas cross, MAs reclaim, Fib 50, IPO, Earnings, Wedge, failed break)

LT trades run into a lot of cases where my stop is located juuuuuust at a point where a TL would be coming into play. I think in these circumstances I’m going to have to deal with a little bigger risk as if the trend is truly intact, that could be an excellent spot to break past my stop, hit that TL, hold it, then continue on.

NEW TRADING PLATFORM

GOODBYE LIGHTSPEED, MY NEW BEST FRIEND IS TRADESTATION

                I made 3k this year. I spent 6k in commissions. What do you think I should do. (trade less for 1)

Trading GOALS

-Take money out of my account.

-Read / re-read 10 Books

-Get a system down for adding to best winners

-1^st 1000$ day / trade

-Better process for determining A+ setups

-Better process for risk on A+ setups.

-Come up with new processes revolving around Daily context (MAs, Reverals, TBO, HBO, ATH)

Life GOALS

-Fast at least 52 days in 2020.

                -I feel great the next day after I fast the previous day.

-Play some good baseball

                -New teams, returning to old league. Will be a lot of fun

-See my abs

                -It's finally time to lose enough weight so I can see what I got under this keg. I’m 6’1 230 right now. I think with proper training, proper eating and implementing fasting, around 210 I'll start to see something.

-Implement posture/imbalance exercises into my program. My shoulder clicks I know why, my hip clicks I know why. If I plan on being a trader the rest of my life I am going to have to use these exercises forever to maintain correct posture and not let my imbalances affect my day to day life.

Pretty pumped for 2020. So many things to look forward to. Wedding, honeymoon, 0 commission trading, building on what is working best for me. Being in flow with the market. Understanding what's hot and what's not. New house, election, crazy strong market. New investments. Couldn’t be happier, couldn’t be more excited.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So lets see, I did not re read those books, nor am I going to, I dont think it would benefit me yet. Instead I reread reminiscences of a stock operator. I finished TA using multiple time frames and it was a goodie. Finished the options book, was not that helpful, bought the new flash crash book and sped read it, and now im reading the disciplined trader by Mark Douglas. And its a good one. Lots of good mental help. 

I did use Tradervue and still do, but love my spreadsheet the most still.

I did go batshit crazy trying to get more descriptive in my HTF setups, possibly too much description. Just now settling down on how I think I want to tag these trades. 

Tradestation is great.

And for my trading goals.

I took money out of my account 1st month I traded in March, and should be able to again in July, if performance is good. 

I think im currently on my 5th book this year, which is a little behind pace for 10 in the year but I think I can do it. Just dont choose big books.

1st 1000trade/day came on same day. Just 2 weeks into my return, crossed off a yearly goal. 

System for adding is well in place and I like it. It started with my starter position. Buying the dips. Starting small, risking less. Not treating it black and white. 

Process for finding A+ setups is here and clear, as for risk, is not super clear and defined yet. But adding to winners is there.

Life Goals

I have not been fasting at all. Since baseball season has come around, I find myself working harder in the gym and on the field. And my energy levels are burned. The last thing I feel like doing is making it even harder on myself by not eating anything. I admit there are days that I could get away with fasting, but I dont. I enjoy my energy and feel like if I dont eat, its going to effect baseball performance. I like hitting home runs and feeling like a God when im up to the plate. I want to feel strong like the field is a tiny playground. Strength and energy is important and im not sure fasting gives me that or helps me keep it. Maybe after baseball is done I can go back to this, or on long breaks im not playing.

Baseball is good, and its a lot of fun. On 2 teams, and we are looking great, ready to win some games.  

Oh I see my abs alright, rather my ab. 6 pack wont happen. Still muscle there, but not cut by any means. 

Once a week I have what I call an imbalance day. I do all the exercises I need to to help fix them.

Looked forward to the wedding and honeymoon. Still do but thanks to covid had to push it to 2021. Definitely feeling just as good as I was back then. 

FINAL THOUGHTS + NEW GOALS

What a ride. I say it every time. Always looking in the rearview feeling bad for yourself. Its impressive how much 'art' ive allowed into my trading now. Used to be nothing but science and ive done a 180. There are things that can be defined, and there are things that cant. Either way you have to trade. Best to trade to your strengths. 

Im flat out ready to work. I just want to trade. There are periods I pullback and do in depth review, but that is not now. Now I want to click buttons and make money. Just wake up, plans in front of me, get to watching. Hunting, Stalking, Waiting. Sagacious laziness. 

I know I am not complete. I also know I dont know what needs immediate fixing. Its like im waiting for my next assignment. I know where my trading has found strength and weakness. I know I usually need to see a few big red numbers before I decide something really needs to change. If all my numbers are green, what needs to change? 

A year into my trading it was all defense. 2nd year was defense with a taste of offense. 3rd year was defense with starting to push the offensive. 4th year / current needs to be really offensive. Defense is covered. 

Its not a game of eliminating unnecessary loss anymore. Now its about getting big. Pushing. Breaking barriers. Getting uncomfortable.

- Come up with risk plan on star rating trades. If 10 stars, risk 2x? 3x? 4x? Size plan before each trade. Start 100 share, add 200, add 300? Start 300, add 200, add 100?

- Finish 5 more books.

-Take care of body, work on imbalances, gain strength.

-Play some damn good baseball. 

-1st $2000 day/trade. 

-Size needs to be focus #1. Green days must be much bigger

Just trade. Click the button. Nothing but flashing numbers on a monitor.