November Monthly Review

Distraction season is heating up. Its a repeat of last year. I remember last year, right around now is the time I started feeling that burnout again. Looking at last year stats and write ups, I cut trades down by about 90%. I was transitioning to swing only. And coincidentally, im finding my self in that same spot again this year. 

Not necessarily because I want to, but Life is stacking up with chores and things to do and depending on new job if it happens or not, ill have to switch to swing cause I wont be at home at the open. Not to mention getting the house ready for the baby. 

So swing trading is back in the mix. I would love to have that 1st 30minutes everyday to get my daytrades in, but if I cant, I cant. The market is not hurting swing traders anymore, clearly. So it may benefit me to be involved in that style of trading again. For the moment anyways, now that I say this the market more than likely wants to pull in and consolidate to make ranges once more. 

Until I have to stop though, im not going to. Im not quite at that burned out stage where im making those same mistakes I used to, Im still on my game. Much more quality over quantity. Watchlist rarely hitting 8 stocks anymore. Usually around 4/5. 

In some ways this market is a gift for what it isnt giving me. Ive been able to do a lot of house things since im only spending maybe an hour a day now on trading. Progress is slow, but its still progress. Just low number of reps. 

-Early in the month, thought of a new way to make a separate strong stock list. Noticed everything is ripping. Obviously very strong market. It will pullback at some point. I want to know what the strongest of the strong stocks that ran during this period are, so when the pullback does happen, Ill know which ones were the strongest. 

-Had trade on PLAY, made me realize all variables can align and look great for a pop, but if its into anything, anchored vwap, MA, TL, BO level, there is still R ahead, and therefore not worth an A grade rating. Best setups have nothing in front. 

-Came up with better risk plan. For months ive simply been using 10star setups for 3, everything else for 2. Now I have a good 1.

    -If its a B setup, meaning if its into anything. Anch v, MA, VA.

    -Or if its a bottom breakout trade. These are reasons to sell strength. 

    -Best trades have never come from a bottom breakout. 

-This also led to me rewriting up checklist in a more ordered manner. Getting through the filters 1st to eliminate, then risk plan and rank. 

-About mid way through November now, Ive taken 8 trades this month. Only 2 winners. Down just a bit, nothing dramatic. Market is on a tear, things are rarely coming out of ranges, tons more trends and gaps out there from earnings. Very hard for me to trade this market.

-And im fine with it. Im not forcing anything. Still here every morning planning trades exactly how I have been, market just isnt giving me my edge, therefore no reason to step on the gas. 

-Ive still got plenty other things going on. Still fixing this house up, getting it ready for the baby to come along. New Job opportunity in the airline industry, which is a whole other conversation with myself I dont really need to sit and type it out. But I am happy to do something that is still stimulating like trading. 

-If I get this job, and take there offer, im going to have to switch to swing trading for a month. And to be totally honest, Im going to swing crypto. I do not have a 25k margin account anymore. Ive used nearly all of it for anything and everything you can imagine. I can still daytrade what I want size and # of trades in the morning. But since I wont be around to watch the open potentially, it would be better use of my money and trading to switch it over to coin exchanges and swing from there. 

-Looking at my crypto coin watchlist, there is clear edge there for me. My setups all over the place, super tight ranges over the past year, THICC VA ranges. Whats not to like. Ill get to it when I have to get to it, until then daytrading is what im doing. 

-Tradestation is becoming a problem. Ive used it for maybe 2 years now, overall fine experience, but the open has always been a problem. It will not load data fast enough. Majority of my best winners happen in the first 5 minutes of the day. And when I cant put in a trade, let alone see where I want to put the trade in, thats huge. Im last in line. Thats huge. Literally talking about thousands of dollars missed because I cant 1. See where the bid/ask is, 2. Put an order in, 3. Adjust an order, 4. Cancel an order.

-Im a sitting duck. Just waiting doing nothing, watching the stock rip without me as I cant even cancel my order to put a new one in because of buying power restrictions. 

-Deleted 60 stocks from daytradable watchlist that were not worth watching. 

-Revised my watchlist. Created separate watchlists based on tags. Strongest, weakest, bottom poppers. Will add too and from and we move along.

-Revised way I trade. Tradestation used to be setup 4 1 min charts on names on my watchlist. I now reduced it to 2 charts with 1min and 15sec chart with bigger tape. Quality over quantity. 

-Created Sentiment Tracker. Saw Stockbees, I wanted to make one my own

THOUGHTS ON FEAR AND MENTAL MAP

Back in September I started my mental map. From the book The Mental Game of Trading.  

I came up with a way to grade my trades as well as my emotions for each trade, so that I am able to keep a more detailed record of my mistakes and where specifically they are occurring.

Trade grade wise I have been grading daily setup, entry triggers and execution, risk. And intraday if it happened, Profit taking, cutting adds, and then finally an exit trade grade. 

Basically a way to look at where im following my rules, and where im not, and how much and how often.

Then for emotions. I do the same for Greed, Fear, Anger, Discipline, and Confidence.

I have a list of different types of triggers and labels I apply to my A, B, C game. 

The goal is to recognize what my C game errors are, what leads to them, and find resolution. 

Im re-reading parts of the book. C game is the error I make, B game is the emotion that leads to the C game. A game is not feeling any emotional pressure at all. 

Ill start with Fear. I believe Fear is my biggest issue at the moment. Im not talking about FOMO, I dont suffer from that much at all anymore. My fear comes in the form of fear of giving back wins, or losing potential profits. 

My big issue last month was cutting my wins in half on noise after I was a decent profit up. I would not follow my rules of waiting for PT to hit, then take partial once 1min low was broken, instead I would get that feeling of not wanting to give anything back, take off size on some 1st pullback, noise essentially, and cut my trade in half, only to watch it keep running, then take off partial at the right spot under the right conditions. 

My C game is taking size off on noise after a decent move in my favor. My B game is having that feeling or urge, to take size off and keep some of the win I just got. A game is not feeling that urge.

So part of the resolution is understanding where that emotion, or urge comes from. 

Why is it that when a trade goes a good ways in my favor quickly, I want to take some off, and not let it run according to my rules.

Fear of loser, fear of giving back a win, fear of giving back some profits. 

Where it comes from, could be multiple things. Wanting to be rich, low trading account value, streak of losers wanting to break it, streak of winners wanting to keep it. Not wanting to give up a win. Wanting to be smarter than the market. Top tick it before it reverses and never comes back. 

All of these thoughts ignore one major point. Thinking in terms of probabilities. Ive done the work to know where my edge is and what to expect once certain triggers happen.  

Where exactly it comes from isnt my biggest problem here. At least I dont think it is. It would be great to never feel that urge, but what I do know, is that urge doesnt mean anything until I act on it. Recognizing it in real time is the key point. And I think ive drilled it in my head now that when I do get into a scenario like that, when the trigger of 'im up a lot here, I dont want to give any back, ill take some off when momentum slows,' I can say to myself 'I have made this mistake before, ive felt these feelings before. Dont act on it. Follow the plan. Dont touch the mouse.

Another argument that could be made is, if I do want to cut after momo slows, well the 1min low can be thought of that as well. There are instances where you get a huge monster 1min cnadle breakout, and waiting for that low to be broken could be the breakeven point. And it does happen that it reverses and loses it. 

But still, thats not thinking in terms of probabilities. Thats trying to be right. Not only that, but right this one time. Have to think in terms of the next 20 trades like that, not just this one. 

WROTE NOV 3, DID I HAVE PROBLEMS??

Still had problems. Cut a few in half still because I cannot let the trade work and follow my system. Overall just 2 of my 8 wins. But that 1 that I cut short, a short trade on SQ, would have been a 4 figure trade had I taken profits correctly. Massive winner missed. 

Other than those 2, I took a couple of premature under vwap trades. Both losers. And a few outsized and undersized risk.

END OF MONTH THOUGHTS

I took 18 trades this month. Not because I wasnt around to trade, but because thats all I saw worth taking around my edge. I am really cutting down on anything outside my zone.

Im not complaining either, I think its good this is happening. It means I have recognized when I have no business trading. 

Doesnt mean I didnt miss any trades either, I certainly did. And this month also determined where I need to be avoiding certain trades and focusing more on others.

And I think ultimately that is what this month showed me. Is That im beginning to recognize my trading is entering truly quality over quantity. Ive changed up a few ways Im viewing data, so that is is more quality focused, rather than trying to do a few things mediocre at once. 

 Going to talk more about this in yearly review

NUMBERS

8 / 18 44% WR

-$127

10 A Grade

Avg Emotion 2.7/3 90%

61% Compliance

-2.1R

Avg win and loss all very near same. 

Tough numbers. Slow month for me. 

Biggest issue is still preparation. There are times I cant get that fill at the open. Price leaves me, spread is too wide at bell, not prepared enough on options to know where I can get that fill if I throw the limit order out there. Its do or die. I gotta deal with it and be prepared. TS may slow me down, but I still have limit orders I can toss out to get filled close to where I want. 

My bigger issues remain the same. Not getting in on winners. Not letting winners run. 

I did not have many issues with losers this month. Taking the trade rarely is a problem. Simple no longs under vwap is a great black and white rule to have. 

Bottom line, quality is increasing, now that I have adjusted tools in front of me and understand why Im doing it and why I need to do it, performance increase should follow. 

Less stocks to focus on = better focus on the ones I do have.

Im going to keep this review short because I want to start working on my yearly, and getting things in order going into next year. Lots and lots to go over. 

PREVIOUS GOALS

1 - On every trade I should answer these questions about the setup to determine ranking. 

    -BO or PB?

    -What is the condition?

        -Is it at the BO, into the BO, a 2nd day after the BO?

        -Is it day of pullback to BO, day after Failure, or continuation after failure/bo retest?   

    -Check Weekly, Options, News, Past significant BO level confluence, and TLs. 

    -Industry/Sector Theme?

    -Check * / 10 Most important Variables 

    -Does it need time to build out before considering adds? Time? Other HTF variables to catch up?

    -What risk plan do I apply?    

    -What is Ranking of watchlist

---I did this everyday. The reason I needed a ranking system is because I was focusing on many stocks on a watchlist everyday, losing focus on quality over quantity. Now that I dont have a lot everyday, I dont necessarily need to rank them every time. I am able to eyeball it and easily tell which ones are worth risking up and focusing more on at bell, and which ones are lesser quality. 

2 - 2nd day Breakout trades, no momentum adds until price has clearly pulled in, and reset at vwap. Minimum of 15 minutes after the bell. Only if there has been plenty of pmkt action, then it is ok for early momo adds. 

---Only messed this up once. Questionable, but looking at screenshots I did a good job. 

3 - Chart SPY and Q everyday for edge on direction. 

---Did and done. Clear levels to watch for chop, and breakouts, and pull ins to trend.

4 - No longs under vwap

---Failed twice, but it has been in mind at all times. 

5 - 100% prepared to trade every morning. Watchlist ready and in order by rank. 

---Close. Burnout is getting there. 

6 - Let my wins work. Do not take the adds off until the proper cues. 

---Majority of trades had nice pop, but failed hard. The ones that did run I struggled to let go because of so many failed pops at open that would reverse to breakeven. Not 100%

7 - Trade without Fear. 

---Impossible. Needs to be managed better. 1st step is awareness. Tell myself to fuck off and finger off the mouse until the condition is met to get out. 

8 - Rethink Mental game grading system? 

---Not yet. With more data ill have more to work with. 

GOALS

Only new things is to work on yearly. Keep trading focusing on quality. Be prepared.