Posts

Where have I been

 I got a job. Money savings was gone. I Got 25k out of an AMD investment and that kept me rolling for a couple years.  My son has changed my life of course. It felt like the right decision to stop my trading for now.  I have a great job. Working with the railroad. I am very lucky and happy to have it. Im still keeping watch over market sentiment, recording daily in my sheet. But i am not trading at all. Its the 10th im writing this, a day short of 2 months since my last trade.  My focus has just been elsewhere.  I cant trade under these conditions. I didnt have anymore savings. It was time to get out there. Something new something different. This new job has got me hooked. Im loving learning all these new processes. Its the same way I felt 5 years ago learning and taking in as much information about trading as I could. The most important thing to me in all of this was doing something that mattered. Something important. Not driving pizzas, not staing at papers al...

April Monthly + CDV Scenarios

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 Bigger moves can start from HTF MA coil/catchup. Save add for pullback? How far best wins went days after. Max MFE, DD, what kind of PB do I have to tolerate. On 1hr 20ma? 30min 50? 5min CDV Themes must scan through sector.  Ive been having trouble getting down what each cumulative delta volume scenario means. There are 9 possible situations.  But first, some rules about CDV CDV is equal to market buy minus market sells.  If its moving up, there are more aggro market buy orders, down, sell orders Generally, CDV moves with price. When it doesnt, that is the divergence to pay attention to. If Price is.... Flat and CDV Down The up moves are weak. Buyers did not have to try hard to get price higher. Sellers are willing to sell at higher prices, and with buyers weak move, it is a reversal opp. Flat and CDV Up Buyers are aggressive, but sellers limits are absorbing the market orders.  This is bearish IF price reverts lower and buyers are unable to break through, This...

April 3rd Week

 Market not looking good. Closed right at lows, looks like we got more in us. Concerned with too far too fast, maybe a fake lower to build new range, but overall things clearly pointing down. Trading for myself was very slow. Not much happening. Not anything clean and clear. Gaps and chops so nothing for me to do and that is fine. Just looking to trade and get more data to keep improving. But waiting for the right setups. MONDAY No gap today, pmkt slight trend up to start. Nothing but shorts on watch, will have to be patient.  Nothing day. Market pop at open, slow lost it all. Nothing setup for me.  TUESDAY No gap again. Market action was disgusting yesterday. Sentiment shifted quite lower, premarket seems to want downside edge as well.  WEDNESDAY Strong rip. Looks like we can get more. Pmkt up still. doesnt look over ext. THURSDAY Another sideways action day, pmkt gap up though, might be a big deal as gap up is holding above major MAs.  I however, have nothing ...

April 2nd Week

 Market not looking great, some pretty weak action out there. This week will be crucial going forward if we want to make new lows or erase this down move.  Were right on the 50ma line with not much underneath. If Qs lose it, SPY surely will as well. MONDAY Slight gap lower and holding lower. Into bell choppy. Nothing super special on watch so might be a nothing day if things dont pick up to downside. We shall see. PDD triggered into big pmkt range break lower, market also collapsed lower. In and added, will be only trade on day.  This one is odd as it has a lot of pmkt action, big gap lower, but recovered all of it forming range around D level. So far hlding lower under vwap but cant lose it yet with rest of market. Still in it.  Hit near LOD 3 times, and spiked back up on me with market, cut momo, then reclaimed vwap and all out. Market ripped higher. Well thats the discipline, gotta be there when it looks great and cut it off no regrets when it turns on you. I was ...

April 1st Week

 MONDAY BACK at it again ready to roll. Great new imrpoved methods, ready for action.  Big goal this week is to judge my intraday score ahead of time to be sure im meeting the 7+ criteria Because im limiting my watchlist much more now, im watching much less as well. Today ive only got 3 on watch. So it is important to anticipate and judge the trade before it happens. Knowing that each stock already meets certain criteria.  Market pulled in from big run up. Not expecting much today overall. Maybe drift lower still to find S, or rip it back up from here.  TUESDAY Few on list again. Market really turning up from names in these big bottom stocks. Lots of good things out there Not many on list again. Could be around 8, but cut them off as they didnt meet the score. Its why I did it, its part of it to focus on best scoring names.  NVAX showed good rel weakness all morning, great setup and as Q was turning lower Failed look above vwap and stuffed, in and added. GOt to ...

1st Quarter + Premium Analysis + Trades at the Bell Analysis + Winners Variable Winrate Analysis + Trade Grade Rewrite

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To start, there were several projects I wanted to dig into and get answers to.  PREMIUM ANALYSIS One was premium and cents at risk based on premium. For starters, when I began trading I knew winrate was one of the more irrelevant measures. But now that I am consistent in my setups, it is more relevant than before. I noticed in my stats that my winrate on trades with premium less than 1$ and cents at risk less than .10 cents, are much higher than the rest. With a good sample size to go with it. And anything larger than 2$ premium and more than .25 cents of risk is much less than average. Same with good sample size.  What I am taking this is as, is the more scalpable the stock option (INTC, AAL, AAPL) The better I perform, the more spready (SNOW GOOG AMZN) The worse. I select my strike based on delta. Closest to 50 under 50 is what I am for. On the bigger names with wider spreads, I go til the calls are under 3$. There is still good setups and money to be made for me in names li...