August Monthly Review
Really solid month. Best of my career I do believe. Only 4 losing days this month so 15 for 19 days I left with more in the account than I started with. Of those 4 day, 2 were pretty bad I know one was completely preventable. Just have to stop myself from trading those kinds of days.
Everything was up. Risk, p/l, wins, WR, R, Compliance. Everything was great and I really owe it to making rules that fit my trading style. After the rules have been made all that is left is to follow them.
The biggest plus is every trade I am taking, majority of the time I know that at some point, I will be leaving the trade with a winner and that is a really good state of mind to be in. Its not about catching the whole move, or top ticking or bottom ticking, or Full size right from the start. Its just managing your trades the way you know they should be managed. For me it was taking if off as soon as its not acting right, while I am still profitable in the trade. Not about being right or wrong, just making money.
Re entering a trade is another huge component. I dont care if I get out of a huge potential win early before its made its move, because I know I can get back in. Dont lose money. If you have it, take it, and keep it, and dont give it back. You can always get back in.
I started paying more attention to MAs this month, more than I ever really have. A while back I started writing about how it felt like there was something notable about my trading and time. I couldnt quite figure out what is was, for a year + really. And just this month I started putting some pieces together with MAs and time. I used to consider MAs more as guides than anything else. Really didnt pay much attention to them at all. I started seeing in my trades that the better they looked, the better the MAs looked as well. With price respecting them as well as being tight and either all under or above price. Adding some more case points to my trades.
So with relation to that and time, there would be trades where I would want to be involved, but something felt off about the trade. Couldnt quite figure it out. It was instinct telling me to look out. MAs provide that extra case of time. Time spent consolidating to get the MAs under price. Or If there was a strong open, vwap a ways away, but the 9/20 sma were still above price on its retrace back to vwap where I would want in, I could feel that it was too early for me to do it. The MAs once caught up and now holding price above them, is a really good indication that time has passed, we have consolidated, and held, and now that enough time has passed to make structure look that way, we have a better chance of making a move now.
NUMBERS
+$4213
165/356 46% WR
91% Compliance
+143R
58 b/e, 69 Full -1R, 41 More than -1R
Avg win +$56
Avg loss -$28
Avg Risk $38, W $36, L $38
Avg win day +$369
Avg loss day -$331
Shares traded 192k
Happy with it. Everything here is good. My avg risk is the same as last month and I think thats fine. July was one of my worst months and to see it be the same risk wise, but completely changed the outcomes, tells me im on the right path for one. And im being more selective in my trades. Putting my risk where it does its job the best rather than mediocre. WR being +10% higher than avg also telling me that.
Risk is becoming an interesting topic for me. Starting bigger is the clear obvious way to get bigger in your trading, but also have to remember I am adding to my winners. I tell myself as long as the numbers are bigger, and avg risk per win vs loss isnt widely different, im doing what I need to be doing.
I dont like starting big because that will not help keep losses small. I like starting 'normal' and adding to winners. Adding bigger to best setups is where I need to keep most of my focus. Increasing that risk per trade if its acting right. And if it ends up being a loser, then so be it. That is also where my avg risk per loss is going to end up big as well. So theres nothing really black and white here. No clear solution other than to keep doing what I am doing. Trading bigger all around. Accepting risk. Dealing with big loss if it happens.
What I am doing now is clearly working for me and makes sense. So theres no reason to give it much more thought than this. Just keep trading bigger.
Other things to look at.
Graph of time of day per trade. The 1st 5 minutes of the day, and after 12pm cst is where im performing my worst. Shouldnt be that surprising. No structure early in day and late in day when vol drops off.
This is R data for all my trades. Really good improvement here. Avg MAE on winners was around .3 so improved almost 100%, and on losers was close to the full -1R so now I am cutting losses more efficiently.
The higher the volume on a stock doesnt affect WR as much as I thought, but does seem to effect performance of the trade. The lower the vol, the less it goes in my favor. Same with Avg daily volume.
This month only had 3 winning trades go past -.5R. Same as last month though now this is with stop tightened and trade management rules in place for cutting losers faster. So to see the same thing still be here is fine. Means I am following up on what is working.
My trades are already so tight there isnt much else to change here with my management. There has always got to be some wiggle room so changing my stop to if it is ever negative would hurt me more than help I think. Lots of trades still hovered in the -.4R to -.1R area so I would be giving up a lot of wins if I did. Going to keep trading on the same track here. New rules have been great for my trading.
Only a few wins turned losers slipped through the cracks that hit +1R or more. Sometimes it does just happen. I remember a few instances of some bs that cause me to get out at a L rather than W or other cases take the full loss or more after it shouldve been a win. Just gotta deal with it sometimes.
And with my spreadsheet, you can see I still have a lot of trades hitting +1R and taking that full -1R loss. It looks like I can be doing better with this. For the most part those losses that do hit +1R are pretty small so I am trying. Some slipping through the cracks. Again, sometimes it just happens.
And with winners, only a few hittin -1R and turning into a win. None of them major wins. Need to zoom in to see what -.5R looks like.
Little hard to see but 33 of my 167 wins hit -.5R or more. Which is a decent chunk. Also still following in line with the -.5R rule. So clearly have a line in the sand to work off of still. Its still a rule of mine that if im ever down -.5R, look to get out sooner than later.
Overall everything is A grade. Very well done. Did the dirty work last month so I can reap the rewards this month. New rules are exactly what I needed.
DETAIL
I want to take a look at performance on winners and losers on trades that reach -.5R, +1R, +2R +3R. Tradervue cant do this, so ill have to build it in my spreadsheet.
I think I am making this mainly so I can check if I am following my rules. For instance my rule is that if a trade is ever at +3R, my stop goes to +1R, so the final R on all trades that hit +3R, should never be below +1R. With +2R it should be positive, and with +1R it should be near breakeven.
With losers, I check to make sure that those that do hit +1 or 2 R, are small. Not full losses. If that average final R ever gets closer to -1, I know im not doing a great job at cutting them.
Pain in the ass, took an hour and a half to make but worth it. The never negative category accounts for most of my profits and 60% of my wins. The down -.5R spot still has good numbers. Worth keeping the trade on to find out. But of course only if it turns in my favor not negative.
For +1R, avg RR is +.26 which is good. For +2R at +.59, ok. For +3R is at +.79 which is not what I want. Needs to be closer to +1 which would be in line with rules. There is of course slippage and volatility and what not, but .2R is too wide of a difference. Should be closer.
Another couple things to note, compliance on all winners is very notably higher than on losers. All the more reason to stay patient in letting the trade come to me and follow the process. And risk take is a bit higher as well.
In the losers category, losses bigger than -1R are really hurting profits. Those flat out have to stop. With losers reaching +1R, my avg RR is -.53 on those. Which is well past the breakeven stop point so there is room for improvement here too. With +2/3R, theres only 10 losses here and $120 to make up, so really not a big deal at all. Drop in the bucket.
Really all this analysis just confirming what I thought last month about what stats should look like if I traded to my strengths. And I did. And I can clearly see its working and what needs some adjustments.
PROBLEMS
I know my size could have been better just about everywhere. The problem is laziness. I have to act fast in most cases and sometimes can only predict what my risk might be if I was to get in right here with this size. And sometimes I have to get in right now or my RR is gone and best entry price gone with it.
It is a little hard to make a goal around this, because like most things in trading, its part of the flow. The bottom line is I am trading bigger and risking what I should be and that is good and where I need to be. The little adjustments to make revolve around the details and how much to add to a starter or my 1st/2nd add.
My big problems from last month became small problems this month. I really did better with everything. Selecting trades, re entering trades. Not missing trades. The problem still exists and will never be 100% fixed, but there is improvement everywhere. What used to be big issues, have been corrected and just need to continue getting better and filling in the small gaps.
SOLUTIONS
Push size. Small starts can still be bigger. Adds must be more than just doubling size. Start with normal starter. If A+ trade, add must be at least twice as big as starter. And I think thats a good place to start. Start 100 shares, add 200, add 100.
Follow your rules. They are there to protect my trading from myself.
PREVIOUS GOALS
-Follow your new rules.
Check
-Get into big picture ideas
-With intended size if best RR case is present
-With half size if missed best RR case
Check. Much better
-Do not short stocks at ATH
Check
-Follow SPY trend on all trades. To do otherwise is settling for lesser probability trades.
Market strong almost every single day. Made it easier to find longs all the time.
-Dont settle. Continue taking trades at the best HTF levels I know I trade well.
Check. Only a couple settled for less trades this whole month.
NEW GOALS
-Size up. 2 $1000 winners this month.
-Get used to having bigger positions on from adding to winners.
-More detailed risk plan on adding. How much? How many times? What fits me.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Really good month. Great stuff. Keep trading well. Keep pushing size.
Everything was up. Risk, p/l, wins, WR, R, Compliance. Everything was great and I really owe it to making rules that fit my trading style. After the rules have been made all that is left is to follow them.
The biggest plus is every trade I am taking, majority of the time I know that at some point, I will be leaving the trade with a winner and that is a really good state of mind to be in. Its not about catching the whole move, or top ticking or bottom ticking, or Full size right from the start. Its just managing your trades the way you know they should be managed. For me it was taking if off as soon as its not acting right, while I am still profitable in the trade. Not about being right or wrong, just making money.
Re entering a trade is another huge component. I dont care if I get out of a huge potential win early before its made its move, because I know I can get back in. Dont lose money. If you have it, take it, and keep it, and dont give it back. You can always get back in.
I started paying more attention to MAs this month, more than I ever really have. A while back I started writing about how it felt like there was something notable about my trading and time. I couldnt quite figure out what is was, for a year + really. And just this month I started putting some pieces together with MAs and time. I used to consider MAs more as guides than anything else. Really didnt pay much attention to them at all. I started seeing in my trades that the better they looked, the better the MAs looked as well. With price respecting them as well as being tight and either all under or above price. Adding some more case points to my trades.
So with relation to that and time, there would be trades where I would want to be involved, but something felt off about the trade. Couldnt quite figure it out. It was instinct telling me to look out. MAs provide that extra case of time. Time spent consolidating to get the MAs under price. Or If there was a strong open, vwap a ways away, but the 9/20 sma were still above price on its retrace back to vwap where I would want in, I could feel that it was too early for me to do it. The MAs once caught up and now holding price above them, is a really good indication that time has passed, we have consolidated, and held, and now that enough time has passed to make structure look that way, we have a better chance of making a move now.
NUMBERS
+$4213
165/356 46% WR
91% Compliance
+143R
58 b/e, 69 Full -1R, 41 More than -1R
Avg win +$56
Avg loss -$28
Avg Risk $38, W $36, L $38
Avg win day +$369
Avg loss day -$331
Shares traded 192k
Happy with it. Everything here is good. My avg risk is the same as last month and I think thats fine. July was one of my worst months and to see it be the same risk wise, but completely changed the outcomes, tells me im on the right path for one. And im being more selective in my trades. Putting my risk where it does its job the best rather than mediocre. WR being +10% higher than avg also telling me that.
Risk is becoming an interesting topic for me. Starting bigger is the clear obvious way to get bigger in your trading, but also have to remember I am adding to my winners. I tell myself as long as the numbers are bigger, and avg risk per win vs loss isnt widely different, im doing what I need to be doing.
I dont like starting big because that will not help keep losses small. I like starting 'normal' and adding to winners. Adding bigger to best setups is where I need to keep most of my focus. Increasing that risk per trade if its acting right. And if it ends up being a loser, then so be it. That is also where my avg risk per loss is going to end up big as well. So theres nothing really black and white here. No clear solution other than to keep doing what I am doing. Trading bigger all around. Accepting risk. Dealing with big loss if it happens.
What I am doing now is clearly working for me and makes sense. So theres no reason to give it much more thought than this. Just keep trading bigger.
Other things to look at.
This is R data for all my trades. Really good improvement here. Avg MAE on winners was around .3 so improved almost 100%, and on losers was close to the full -1R so now I am cutting losses more efficiently.
The higher the volume on a stock doesnt affect WR as much as I thought, but does seem to effect performance of the trade. The lower the vol, the less it goes in my favor. Same with Avg daily volume.
This month only had 3 winning trades go past -.5R. Same as last month though now this is with stop tightened and trade management rules in place for cutting losers faster. So to see the same thing still be here is fine. Means I am following up on what is working.
My trades are already so tight there isnt much else to change here with my management. There has always got to be some wiggle room so changing my stop to if it is ever negative would hurt me more than help I think. Lots of trades still hovered in the -.4R to -.1R area so I would be giving up a lot of wins if I did. Going to keep trading on the same track here. New rules have been great for my trading.
And with my spreadsheet, you can see I still have a lot of trades hitting +1R and taking that full -1R loss. It looks like I can be doing better with this. For the most part those losses that do hit +1R are pretty small so I am trying. Some slipping through the cracks. Again, sometimes it just happens.
And with winners, only a few hittin -1R and turning into a win. None of them major wins. Need to zoom in to see what -.5R looks like.
Little hard to see but 33 of my 167 wins hit -.5R or more. Which is a decent chunk. Also still following in line with the -.5R rule. So clearly have a line in the sand to work off of still. Its still a rule of mine that if im ever down -.5R, look to get out sooner than later.
Overall everything is A grade. Very well done. Did the dirty work last month so I can reap the rewards this month. New rules are exactly what I needed.
DETAIL
I want to take a look at performance on winners and losers on trades that reach -.5R, +1R, +2R +3R. Tradervue cant do this, so ill have to build it in my spreadsheet.
I think I am making this mainly so I can check if I am following my rules. For instance my rule is that if a trade is ever at +3R, my stop goes to +1R, so the final R on all trades that hit +3R, should never be below +1R. With +2R it should be positive, and with +1R it should be near breakeven.
With losers, I check to make sure that those that do hit +1 or 2 R, are small. Not full losses. If that average final R ever gets closer to -1, I know im not doing a great job at cutting them.
Pain in the ass, took an hour and a half to make but worth it. The never negative category accounts for most of my profits and 60% of my wins. The down -.5R spot still has good numbers. Worth keeping the trade on to find out. But of course only if it turns in my favor not negative.
For +1R, avg RR is +.26 which is good. For +2R at +.59, ok. For +3R is at +.79 which is not what I want. Needs to be closer to +1 which would be in line with rules. There is of course slippage and volatility and what not, but .2R is too wide of a difference. Should be closer.
Another couple things to note, compliance on all winners is very notably higher than on losers. All the more reason to stay patient in letting the trade come to me and follow the process. And risk take is a bit higher as well.
In the losers category, losses bigger than -1R are really hurting profits. Those flat out have to stop. With losers reaching +1R, my avg RR is -.53 on those. Which is well past the breakeven stop point so there is room for improvement here too. With +2/3R, theres only 10 losses here and $120 to make up, so really not a big deal at all. Drop in the bucket.
Really all this analysis just confirming what I thought last month about what stats should look like if I traded to my strengths. And I did. And I can clearly see its working and what needs some adjustments.
PROBLEMS
I know my size could have been better just about everywhere. The problem is laziness. I have to act fast in most cases and sometimes can only predict what my risk might be if I was to get in right here with this size. And sometimes I have to get in right now or my RR is gone and best entry price gone with it.
It is a little hard to make a goal around this, because like most things in trading, its part of the flow. The bottom line is I am trading bigger and risking what I should be and that is good and where I need to be. The little adjustments to make revolve around the details and how much to add to a starter or my 1st/2nd add.
My big problems from last month became small problems this month. I really did better with everything. Selecting trades, re entering trades. Not missing trades. The problem still exists and will never be 100% fixed, but there is improvement everywhere. What used to be big issues, have been corrected and just need to continue getting better and filling in the small gaps.
SOLUTIONS
Push size. Small starts can still be bigger. Adds must be more than just doubling size. Start with normal starter. If A+ trade, add must be at least twice as big as starter. And I think thats a good place to start. Start 100 shares, add 200, add 100.
Follow your rules. They are there to protect my trading from myself.
PREVIOUS GOALS
-Follow your new rules.
Check
-Get into big picture ideas
-With intended size if best RR case is present
-With half size if missed best RR case
Check. Much better
-Do not short stocks at ATH
Check
-Follow SPY trend on all trades. To do otherwise is settling for lesser probability trades.
Market strong almost every single day. Made it easier to find longs all the time.
-Dont settle. Continue taking trades at the best HTF levels I know I trade well.
Check. Only a couple settled for less trades this whole month.
NEW GOALS
-Size up. 2 $1000 winners this month.
-Get used to having bigger positions on from adding to winners.
-More detailed risk plan on adding. How much? How many times? What fits me.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Really good month. Great stuff. Keep trading well. Keep pushing size.
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