8/20 DRC
FAILURE. Fails everywhere. Up down all around. Stuff getting tight and messy. Not much clear direction now. SPY hit ATH so still long bias is on, but yesterday we had the FOMC stuff and tanked pretty good into the close. Caused a lot of good breakouts, to turn right around, close red and now look like good shorts.
So I have a lot of shorts planned. If not and there is no follow through, then i am SOL. Still some decent long opportunities out there but structure does not look well for it.
So im anticipating a few options for today
1. We continue the weakness we saw into the close into today and start selling off.
a. aggressively meaning sellers are taking over up here/ longs bailing and we now want a move lower to find value
b. weakly but hold on well enough and not dump hard meaning bulls are buying this dip opportunity
2. We dont find any selling and we continue our trend up
a. Structure not good for me in most cases will be hard to find a good trade
3. We rip faces off and continue our ever ending trend higher, im which case my longs will be nice
4. We do nothing. settle around new ATH and decide if we like it or not. Chop city.
No matter what I know a few things
1. Bulls win until they dont
2. We are in need of a deep pullback to find real value
3. The true value is not up here, until it is. Time will answer this
So im an open book today. Whatever happens happens.
1. Stay very patient. Let market speak to me. Tell me if we are strong or not.
2. Longs are still best bet BUT if market is weak and I get a long, today might not be the day to press on the gas. Must remember market can only help or hurt.
3. Get big when all signs are pointing one direction. Capitalize on the conditions if they are there.
Patience the name of the game today. Stick it out, take what I need to.
FB AMZN NFLX AMD TSLA BA BYND SHOP FSLY PFE MGM LYV
BABA
earnings name. Sideways open under pve lod making range just under it. Looking for breakout to fail and turn lower for short.
Did not, got above and held, now long, now looking to catch a long on a pb to level.
Broke under all of it and into pmkt low. Seen a lof of big offers, vol this whole move lower has been very low. Feel like there might ba a long here.
And we did find good buying and ave a nice little pop here. I wouldve been in front of the train though going for that so now I want to see it hold again on retest of 255.60
Tape is absolutely here. Its a struggle to move higher though. Saw all I needed and added twice. Want to see us above vwap and hit that intraday range high again / prev lod.
Up +1R now 2 so stop breakeven. Looking for big pop here higher on failed shorts.
Down to whole number and stop, bids still here well see if we can hold. Got just under vwap, want above 257.
Couldnt do it all out small W. Ok with that, had a chance. Vol very low though, does not look good for re entry. Will have to wait for something else.
--------------------------------------------------------
Time has passed, MAs starting to get under price and we are not dropping. Might have re entry.
Not long, we broke lower with vol, no coming back up to restest pmkt lo and intraday range lo. GOod setup.
Pulling up with bids and offers here. V low vol pb but we arent seeing the buying stop yet.
Just cant stop moving higher. No short yet it seems. Will have to reclaim and retset
And we did exactly that. I was distracted from ROKU stupid move I may have missed it. Hoping it comes to retset again.
Apparenyl decided to pull the trigger at the exact wrong time, coiled under, held, tested above, ticked lower hard, in, ticked right back up to above micro pivot high and stopped me out. garbage.
MGM
sideways open under prev lod and breakout level. Making nice range under. Looking for failed breka long to short.
Missed 1st but came back up to new HOD also where prev lod is and looking again.
Tough short because market is hot and strong right now. Big sell is here, but not sure what I really need here.
Doesnt matter broke above. Seems like I need to find longs not shorts.
DDOG
Strong open, reversed a big failure and reclaimed, not on watchlist but alerted. Making big triangle with bottom at vwap, looking for failed breakdown to buy.
Missed it but think its fine, HTF level is .60 cents above, MAs also above, structure could be better. V slow low vol right now. Has what I want but no tape yet.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coiling just under, failed breakdown multiple times. MAs getting super tight just under DBO. Looking for momentum to get in.
And got it and added twice. Looks good, small vol bump everything nice and tight so risk is as well. Looks great as market also turning. I will saw tape is not A+ so something to keep in mind.
Broke 1st mini range high and now 2nd. And theres the tape added again. Looking for bust of top TL above 85 at mid day pivot 85.23 here. HOD at 85.31, may as well aim for that. Up 1R so stop tightened. We look great here just needs to roll.
Lots of names turning up higher right now. DDOG sort of a laggard. Big HTF reasons to explode here though and follow the rest of the market.
Into 85 where we had big offer, we took him but seems to have refreshed or hid size. No reason to exit anything yet. Market really turning up right now.
Stalling under it, not hitting again. Warning signs. Up 2R and have big bid under us, if he breaks im all out and reset trade.
Turned into him, spiked up and he moved up with price. Looks like turning breaking point is now. PT will be for HOD here.
Into 85, saw no big size, came off a bit. Just waiting now. New stop is in.
And all out annoying. Want in at HTF level.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
84.60 is the spot, combined with TL and some MAs and prev range high. .
Price not acting right, I should get the pb entry. If not will have to settle for scalp.
Creeping its way back up. V low vol again. I will take scalp but still thinking we pullback to retest level again.
Well here we are at 85 again. Slow low vol attempt to get here. I will take scalp but not A+.
And theres the turn lower into bottom TL. Now TL and HTF are separated too far. Going to have to see this thing reset again. MAs no longer tight and coild under, now split and some above. Sucks.
And we did break into level. Waiting to see if buying.
And there was, but didnt quite get to the level. Back up near 85, scalp is A+ now.
V tight into 85 again, vol up spreads tight. Buying here. We can do it.
Broke with big vol and added. Bids right away stepping up and following. HOD looks likely have to hold here. Following TM rules. up 1R already. Stop tighter now +2R, SPY also ripping higher should help.
And we ran into a big offer and sold off good. Small win. Can still make a run for it, but I need some better entry, I cant really stay confident in a trade chasing price rather than letting it come to me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
And my chance to get in has come. Ripped up without me, pulling back to TL + 85. looking for it.
And saw it and added aggressively. SPY turned sharply lower and DDOG followed. Took a decent hit.
Of course, reclaimed immediately, left without me. Stuck waitin on 85 retest.
NVDA
Earnings. late afternoon made big triangle and failed a break lower, then brokw higher with small vol increase. Everything is very tight, tinking we got a good shot at a pop higher to follow market. Waiting on retest of breakout level now from above vwap. HTF levels above as well.
Leaked higher, HTF still looks good. Waiting on pb to major TL and vwap.
Not getting there, but there is big bid at the half dollar. Would like to see some kind of failure here for higher probability setup. Need confluence, cant chase mediocre.
TL now caught up above vwap and other bidders joined, waiting for momentum to get in.
And we got it, stepped up im in waiting to add, stop tight with good S just under. SMH AMD and SPY all helping turning higher. Vol super low here in NVDA, is the turning point
And it happened fast, we blew up .50 cents and I had to chase a bit to get in but all good. Letting it go, couldnt get as big as I wanted BP problems but is what it is. Late day trade, going to be sitting for a while now.
1st stop is recent pivot at 488.50, then PT at morning pivot at 489. Vol is spiking here all time frames looking great. Up 1R already so stop is if MAs / breakeven / major TL cant hold.
And absolutely fucked me. SPY decided to dump lower as did the rest of the market. Came to breakeven where I waited a moment and dumped half a dollar on me before I got out .
I should have been out under whole number. I tried convincing myself it needs more space and time because low vol and late in day, well fuck that way of thinking. I lost money. I should have left with small win.
NKLA
Big dump with big vol kinda outta nowhere. Solid reversal setup now with flat top. clear level of entry. Just waiting.
Dropped more might give me another setup.
LMND
Hour before close, LMND great D setup, weak all day, just broke big range into lod and made new LOD and I got in small size. Didnt get the add but holding through.
Big vol bump, its so low and slow though. Got my add later as it came up a bit. Gotta deal with pbs.
Only done 33% of avg daily range, expecting to see something good here. Made new lod, no follow through yet, pullback still showing good offers.
Big ish bids came in, both taken out as we go lower. Waiting on 60 break to take partial.
Nothing significant until 60, then 59.50. ATR isnt until 57. A measured move would be 59.90. Sp 60 the number to bear, and we have a large bid here sitting. Itll take a big trader. I think its important to take through this because spread and low vol will kill my potential p/l. Not waiting for 1min lo or hi, will take on 1st sign of buying. A break now would also signal over extension with TLs.
We broke, I just flat out took it off. Small size left. Great vol here. Let it go.
Stop on last bit is hold above 60. Didnt take long, we got back up, bids stacked in behind above 60 all out.
Well nothing short of a nightmare today. Praising the lord im ending green. Tough to sit here in the red all day, not wanting to be red and just waiting waiting waiting for something. And luckily LMND gave me something.
Performance today goes back to last night. Bad night of sleep. Personal problems. Not a good night, not a good morning, not a good trading day. F.
BABA
Trades were fine. Good spots good action. 1st was good, took small win. 2nd ripped my face off. Took bigger than -1R, luckily not big nor did I add.
DDOG
Messy. 1st trade great, shame didnt go right then and there so of course I get out. good, look to get back in, but I didnt chart a TL that was right on top of vwap. So when the TL bottom was at .65 and vwap at .50, HTF level at .60, I wanted that .60 to hit 1st becuase why shouldnt it. I wasnt ready for the long then and there then missed the move up to breakout. Took the breakout and didnt explode, came back on me and gout out like I should have, but didnt leave any size on for the bigger picture. I was small mode only, big size, quick in and out, didnt even consider leaving 1/8th on the trade to play out. Scalp win wouldve covered risk. Tough trade overall but structure was there I should have done better.
NVDA
some bs here. I blame SPY for starters. Solid 1st entry, went a bit and failed. Took way bigger loss than intended. I intended to take a win out of it instead lost more than I wanted to risk. bs. And again didnt chart a TL that showed excellent spot for re entry. Missed bad.
LMND
Good.
Just want today over with, let it go let it be. Do better in real life tonight. Get good sleep, wake up in a good mood and ready to end the week with solid trading
Things to remember for tomorrow
-Always be charting TLs
-Get back in
-Breakouts dont only mean scalp the move only. Big picture. Leave some on.
-Run for the exit dont walk. When I walk I lose money. Follow trade management rules
So I have a lot of shorts planned. If not and there is no follow through, then i am SOL. Still some decent long opportunities out there but structure does not look well for it.
So im anticipating a few options for today
1. We continue the weakness we saw into the close into today and start selling off.
a. aggressively meaning sellers are taking over up here/ longs bailing and we now want a move lower to find value
b. weakly but hold on well enough and not dump hard meaning bulls are buying this dip opportunity
2. We dont find any selling and we continue our trend up
a. Structure not good for me in most cases will be hard to find a good trade
3. We rip faces off and continue our ever ending trend higher, im which case my longs will be nice
4. We do nothing. settle around new ATH and decide if we like it or not. Chop city.
No matter what I know a few things
1. Bulls win until they dont
2. We are in need of a deep pullback to find real value
3. The true value is not up here, until it is. Time will answer this
So im an open book today. Whatever happens happens.
1. Stay very patient. Let market speak to me. Tell me if we are strong or not.
2. Longs are still best bet BUT if market is weak and I get a long, today might not be the day to press on the gas. Must remember market can only help or hurt.
3. Get big when all signs are pointing one direction. Capitalize on the conditions if they are there.
Patience the name of the game today. Stick it out, take what I need to.
FB AMZN NFLX AMD TSLA BA BYND SHOP FSLY PFE MGM LYV
BABA
earnings name. Sideways open under pve lod making range just under it. Looking for breakout to fail and turn lower for short.
Did not, got above and held, now long, now looking to catch a long on a pb to level.
Broke under all of it and into pmkt low. Seen a lof of big offers, vol this whole move lower has been very low. Feel like there might ba a long here.
And we did find good buying and ave a nice little pop here. I wouldve been in front of the train though going for that so now I want to see it hold again on retest of 255.60
Tape is absolutely here. Its a struggle to move higher though. Saw all I needed and added twice. Want to see us above vwap and hit that intraday range high again / prev lod.
Up +1R now 2 so stop breakeven. Looking for big pop here higher on failed shorts.
Down to whole number and stop, bids still here well see if we can hold. Got just under vwap, want above 257.
Couldnt do it all out small W. Ok with that, had a chance. Vol very low though, does not look good for re entry. Will have to wait for something else.
--------------------------------------------------------
Time has passed, MAs starting to get under price and we are not dropping. Might have re entry.
Not long, we broke lower with vol, no coming back up to restest pmkt lo and intraday range lo. GOod setup.
Pulling up with bids and offers here. V low vol pb but we arent seeing the buying stop yet.
Just cant stop moving higher. No short yet it seems. Will have to reclaim and retset
And we did exactly that. I was distracted from ROKU stupid move I may have missed it. Hoping it comes to retset again.
Apparenyl decided to pull the trigger at the exact wrong time, coiled under, held, tested above, ticked lower hard, in, ticked right back up to above micro pivot high and stopped me out. garbage.
MGM
sideways open under prev lod and breakout level. Making nice range under. Looking for failed breka long to short.
Missed 1st but came back up to new HOD also where prev lod is and looking again.
Tough short because market is hot and strong right now. Big sell is here, but not sure what I really need here.
Doesnt matter broke above. Seems like I need to find longs not shorts.
DDOG
Strong open, reversed a big failure and reclaimed, not on watchlist but alerted. Making big triangle with bottom at vwap, looking for failed breakdown to buy.
Missed it but think its fine, HTF level is .60 cents above, MAs also above, structure could be better. V slow low vol right now. Has what I want but no tape yet.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coiling just under, failed breakdown multiple times. MAs getting super tight just under DBO. Looking for momentum to get in.
And got it and added twice. Looks good, small vol bump everything nice and tight so risk is as well. Looks great as market also turning. I will saw tape is not A+ so something to keep in mind.
Broke 1st mini range high and now 2nd. And theres the tape added again. Looking for bust of top TL above 85 at mid day pivot 85.23 here. HOD at 85.31, may as well aim for that. Up 1R so stop tightened. We look great here just needs to roll.
Lots of names turning up higher right now. DDOG sort of a laggard. Big HTF reasons to explode here though and follow the rest of the market.
Into 85 where we had big offer, we took him but seems to have refreshed or hid size. No reason to exit anything yet. Market really turning up right now.
Stalling under it, not hitting again. Warning signs. Up 2R and have big bid under us, if he breaks im all out and reset trade.
Turned into him, spiked up and he moved up with price. Looks like turning breaking point is now. PT will be for HOD here.
Into 85, saw no big size, came off a bit. Just waiting now. New stop is in.
And all out annoying. Want in at HTF level.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
84.60 is the spot, combined with TL and some MAs and prev range high. .
Price not acting right, I should get the pb entry. If not will have to settle for scalp.
Creeping its way back up. V low vol again. I will take scalp but still thinking we pullback to retest level again.
Well here we are at 85 again. Slow low vol attempt to get here. I will take scalp but not A+.
And theres the turn lower into bottom TL. Now TL and HTF are separated too far. Going to have to see this thing reset again. MAs no longer tight and coild under, now split and some above. Sucks.
And we did break into level. Waiting to see if buying.
And there was, but didnt quite get to the level. Back up near 85, scalp is A+ now.
V tight into 85 again, vol up spreads tight. Buying here. We can do it.
Broke with big vol and added. Bids right away stepping up and following. HOD looks likely have to hold here. Following TM rules. up 1R already. Stop tighter now +2R, SPY also ripping higher should help.
And we ran into a big offer and sold off good. Small win. Can still make a run for it, but I need some better entry, I cant really stay confident in a trade chasing price rather than letting it come to me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
And my chance to get in has come. Ripped up without me, pulling back to TL + 85. looking for it.
And saw it and added aggressively. SPY turned sharply lower and DDOG followed. Took a decent hit.
Of course, reclaimed immediately, left without me. Stuck waitin on 85 retest.
NVDA
Earnings. late afternoon made big triangle and failed a break lower, then brokw higher with small vol increase. Everything is very tight, tinking we got a good shot at a pop higher to follow market. Waiting on retest of breakout level now from above vwap. HTF levels above as well.
Leaked higher, HTF still looks good. Waiting on pb to major TL and vwap.
Not getting there, but there is big bid at the half dollar. Would like to see some kind of failure here for higher probability setup. Need confluence, cant chase mediocre.
TL now caught up above vwap and other bidders joined, waiting for momentum to get in.
And we got it, stepped up im in waiting to add, stop tight with good S just under. SMH AMD and SPY all helping turning higher. Vol super low here in NVDA, is the turning point
And it happened fast, we blew up .50 cents and I had to chase a bit to get in but all good. Letting it go, couldnt get as big as I wanted BP problems but is what it is. Late day trade, going to be sitting for a while now.
1st stop is recent pivot at 488.50, then PT at morning pivot at 489. Vol is spiking here all time frames looking great. Up 1R already so stop is if MAs / breakeven / major TL cant hold.
And absolutely fucked me. SPY decided to dump lower as did the rest of the market. Came to breakeven where I waited a moment and dumped half a dollar on me before I got out .
I should have been out under whole number. I tried convincing myself it needs more space and time because low vol and late in day, well fuck that way of thinking. I lost money. I should have left with small win.
NKLA
Big dump with big vol kinda outta nowhere. Solid reversal setup now with flat top. clear level of entry. Just waiting.
Dropped more might give me another setup.
LMND
Hour before close, LMND great D setup, weak all day, just broke big range into lod and made new LOD and I got in small size. Didnt get the add but holding through.
Big vol bump, its so low and slow though. Got my add later as it came up a bit. Gotta deal with pbs.
Only done 33% of avg daily range, expecting to see something good here. Made new lod, no follow through yet, pullback still showing good offers.
Big ish bids came in, both taken out as we go lower. Waiting on 60 break to take partial.
Nothing significant until 60, then 59.50. ATR isnt until 57. A measured move would be 59.90. Sp 60 the number to bear, and we have a large bid here sitting. Itll take a big trader. I think its important to take through this because spread and low vol will kill my potential p/l. Not waiting for 1min lo or hi, will take on 1st sign of buying. A break now would also signal over extension with TLs.
We broke, I just flat out took it off. Small size left. Great vol here. Let it go.
Stop on last bit is hold above 60. Didnt take long, we got back up, bids stacked in behind above 60 all out.
Well nothing short of a nightmare today. Praising the lord im ending green. Tough to sit here in the red all day, not wanting to be red and just waiting waiting waiting for something. And luckily LMND gave me something.
Performance today goes back to last night. Bad night of sleep. Personal problems. Not a good night, not a good morning, not a good trading day. F.
BABA
Trades were fine. Good spots good action. 1st was good, took small win. 2nd ripped my face off. Took bigger than -1R, luckily not big nor did I add.
DDOG
Messy. 1st trade great, shame didnt go right then and there so of course I get out. good, look to get back in, but I didnt chart a TL that was right on top of vwap. So when the TL bottom was at .65 and vwap at .50, HTF level at .60, I wanted that .60 to hit 1st becuase why shouldnt it. I wasnt ready for the long then and there then missed the move up to breakout. Took the breakout and didnt explode, came back on me and gout out like I should have, but didnt leave any size on for the bigger picture. I was small mode only, big size, quick in and out, didnt even consider leaving 1/8th on the trade to play out. Scalp win wouldve covered risk. Tough trade overall but structure was there I should have done better.
NVDA
some bs here. I blame SPY for starters. Solid 1st entry, went a bit and failed. Took way bigger loss than intended. I intended to take a win out of it instead lost more than I wanted to risk. bs. And again didnt chart a TL that showed excellent spot for re entry. Missed bad.
LMND
Good.
Just want today over with, let it go let it be. Do better in real life tonight. Get good sleep, wake up in a good mood and ready to end the week with solid trading
Things to remember for tomorrow
-Always be charting TLs
-Get back in
-Breakouts dont only mean scalp the move only. Big picture. Leave some on.
-Run for the exit dont walk. When I walk I lose money. Follow trade management rules
Comments
Post a Comment