AFYA

AFYA AFYA LIMITED

 

Afya Ltd. is a medical education group, which engages in the provision of an end-to-end physician-centric ecosystem that serves and empowers students to be lifelong medical learners through their medical residency preparation, post-graduate programs, and continuing medical education activities. It operates through Education Services; and Digital Content, Residency Preparatory and Specialization Programs segments. The Education Services segment provides educational services through undergraduate and graduate courses related to medicine, other health sciences, and other undergraduate programs. The Residency Preparatory and Specialization Programs segment offers digital and printed medical content services, including online courses for residency preparatory, medical and other than medical post-graduate specialization programs and mobile app subscription for digital medical content. The company was founded on March 22, 2019 and is headquartered in Nova Lima, Brazil.

Another trade similar to LRN, same industry. Not the clear leader but financials are fantastic and undervalue was clear.

IPO in 2019 around 24, now 22. Rev has increase 4x, income 3x, eps 2x. Fantastic growth and price has not reflected any of it. Should be a long term hold as well. I see no reason to this cant get to ATH and then some. Question is how long will it take and how much of a drawdown am I willing to take. 

WEEK OF 12/19

12.22

Slight bump higher, consoldiating which is great to see given huge turn up. No selling coming in up here and strong vol close just under monthly high looks ready for more. 

Weekly is stilll 10% above 9MA which is always a concern for overextension. But to see a doji last week and not see any selling is great. No cause for concern still. 

We are at 2yr ago bottom levels, buut still a bit off from Vol Prof zone. So I cant see major selling reasons here still yet. Shouldnt expect this to run forever, but still no reason to sell.

Queries edge to green, some significant red returns though. Overall green has clear edge with a few 80%, green returns also even it out in averages. Looking like holding still. No reason for sell. 

Should see trouble around 24, if we can get above 25 looks great for ATH. but no reason to expect this anytime soon. 

12/30

Trend continues, did not see much weakness. Riding 9ma nicely.

All HTF charts look great, closing near top of candles. Seems fine to let it keep going. 24 is magnet still. Will take partial on this as market seems to be getting a bit weaker, but will give it its chance. HTF MAs still quite a ways away but D 20sma is close by and can be a great trend breaker along with TL if we get a breakdown with vol, that is my cue to take partial. 

1/5

Pullback. We have a nice vol prof range from 20.25 to 22. The W 9ma catching up will be big deteminiant if I remian fully long in this. The 9 will certianly be right at price at the open on monday, rest of industry also saw same dip. But big name salso saw big buys. Going to correlate this with LRN. If cant hold 20.25 I need to take partial. REasonm to hold are her, but so is a partial. 

We lost the TL and 20, but it just never saw enough selling for me to bail. Kept waiting for the close, and kept seeing dip buys and rips. Big buys at close as well. Kept giving me reasons to hold for another day. 

Queries are trouble. 

Can be great bounce spot, or clea trend shift lower. Have to be cautious. 20D avg gain cahnged neg after 53 days streak. 10D and 5D as well and M% almost neg. 

1.13

Came close to partial taking on a close under 20.60 but kept getting bought by the close. Partial on close at 20.50 is clear but now the 50dma almost caught up to add more S. Will keep letting it go and see how structure is in the week. 

9wma saw clear buying.

Queries are fine, edge to green side but small.

1/28

Saw huge sell to start the week after breaking new highs. As far as I can telll, no idea why. News came out 2 days later about a seat increase whcih is only affecting less than 1% of sales. No big deal but had to let it play out. Gave me a clear stop spot now on a close under 20. 

2/3

Lost the 20, partial taken.

20wma almost caught up, looking for this to retset that and maybe a new setup. 

For now stop is around 19 on a clse under that 20wma

Queries show avg retun flat D-Q so not expecting anything here. MFE MAE the same. 

Very small amount remains here, but such a great win with clear technicals and fundamental growth, it is worth leaving on to pay close attention for a reset. Maybe a month from now who knows, but as long as 19 / 20wma  / bottom of major vol prof holds, I will keep this on as trend is still up. 

2/10

Strong industry. Great breakouts. Seems ot have found botttom just before w20ma is in play. DMAs starting to coil and turn up. Out of order still, will need rest of month to see whats up. New Monthly vol prof formed.

Queries are ok. Edge to green some decen high numbers in there. Return wise nothing special. 

Frequent days show more coming. Lots of bottoms in there that are similar. 

Avg MAE M at 18.50 which would be too far past better stop at 19. 

Avg Returns get wild. 

Overall 3% on Q. But 10% MFE at 23

Per Frequent days, Avg Q Retun is 15% at 24

Stop 19.25

Letting it ride, industry performance very promising for an add here. Market likes it. 

2/18

Industry saw some good selling. Lots of tops looking like they are pulling in for building a base. 20wma will be in play next week. 

Queries are bad. Frequent day are deep red. Might be exiting this this week. No plan on re entry for now.

Stop on close under 19.30

2/23

A rip from bottom of base

Industry is weak though. 

Query gives me some green. Really nothing to do yet here. Stop still 19.30

Q% just changed negative for first time in 84 trading days. Which started this major run up so good sign there to look for a bounce.

Everything else fairly red with M% trying to go green. 

20Wma also now acting as good support with a low vol pb. Looks close for re entry here sometime soon.