5/14 DRC
Lots of shorts planned to say the least, main focus on today should be looking for breakdowns, but there are still some old gap stocks/ new ones that ill be watching too. Long side on any names seems less likely but if its there on a gapper I dont mind taking it. Shorts on SPY/DIA/AAPL/banks/industrials are where I think the big moves will be on the day.
NVAX
Giant past 2 days triangle. At the open it broke down from it came right back above vwap + TL + HTF levels and held for a minute. Looked like a failed breakdown. Tape looked good I got a starter, couldnt hold got out.
Tried again, we broke the range lower and found no increase in selling. Buyers still there I got a starter and added once we broke whole number higher again. Few minutes sideways and a bigger seller showed up at whole number again and we were not hitting him. Warning signs, Stopped out on new range break lower. Will have to break to upside for me to be interested now.
You know I said to start the day the downside was probably main focus, showed no signs of strength to start even for these trades. RVOL was a bit lower still above 2 but maybe the market is what we needed to see more buying in this name.
So NVAX made new LOD, came back up to vwap and HTF zone again and started failing. Decent seller at .15 was unable to break through I got short off him. We ticked lower and I added more. We lost whole number and stepped under I added more.
Sellers started stepping in and I added more. Clear stop above .15 and now we have to break under vwap. If we cant Ill take a small win.
Tapped vwap and ripped back up that was the end of it. Cant get a read on this.
Ok tried it one more time. We got back above the HTF levels and held it nicely. We took a dip under range + vwap and saw no selling, that along with SPYs monster squeeze and NVAX showing bids and taking out offers along the way thought wed see the upside. Still no, stopped out.
DIA
Market is obviously weak. We had a weak start and started pulling back to levels. DIA had a clear breakdown level and pulled back to it. It acted almost perfectly tape had selling cues and I got a starter just under it as we started ticking lower. SPY was doing the same.
Added as we went lower again alongside SPY. I was somewhat big already so because of positioning, cant get much larger.
The volume on both SPY and DIA on this next mini leg lower was very low volume. It shortly ripped back higher and got me out.
SPY was coiling tighter, failed to make a HH above vwap and was dropping back under. DIA came and hit the level again + vwap. Got wrecked immediately and squeezed out way past my stop.
Well fucking myself pretty good today. DIA trades are shit and market not clear. Tilt, 3+ losses, need to walk away for a while.
well 0/14 is no fun. Its really hard for me to walk away right now. I want to keep going. I know there will still be good setups. Im giving myself one last trade to work with. Im chilling for half and hour catching up on some stats and then ill re look at charts and see if there is something.
Slipped up today I got too careless with what I was trading. I wanted the action today was supposed to be the big sell day right, so I got to get into a trade right, what looks good, yeah thats good enough lets take it and go.
Completely different mindset than I have been having lately. Too anxious to get something on, not patient enough to wait like I have been for the setup to look a lot cleaner and more obvious.
COME BACK
DDOG
DDOG was weak all day, pulled back to yest HOD and traded around it for a while. Was a huge seller not getting hit at 65 so I got short in front. Just scalping.
Good location, good tape action, sellers stepping down in front too. Small Risk. Big reward.
Well turned out fantastic. Again mindset issues, If I was on top of it I wouldve added. it had the A+ tape tells with big sellers stepping down constantly preventing a drop in price. Move a whole point lower and he was chasing.
Im a little upset because I wanted my stop to be if he broke, I thought he did as price was moving higher, but he was actually just moving his limit up getting better price, he never actually broke before i took my partial. Either way made my money back on the day. Not even intentionally, just so happend this one trade did it for me.
Now he finally broke and I took another half off.
Reasons to never give up on the day. p/l just a number. Take a minute time off, come back ready to go. Pull the trigger. Last trade means nothing on your last. Just a number.
We went sideways a bit still seeing huge selling signs. I added with stop above new recent LH. Seller is refreshing. Added more, putting on the risk as I see it on the tape. Have a good buffer to work with time to push.
We are now holding under HTF level with tape cues, and at bottom TL from new triangle. SPY is dropping hard. All signs point lower. Big seller still stepping down. Someone just took him, will see if he shows up again. I think hes still here, not showing same size, but other good sized sellers still stepping in. Yes he is def still here. Stop will be if he disappears. We broke TL and nothing happening so maybe sellers not as aggro.
Tape getting very choppy both directions. Seller still around. will cut risk in half if we hold above whole number.
This guy must be massive, just keeps refreshing. Still havent lost range low for a breakdown.
.62 the number to lose, seller at .74, slowly been moving lower.
Broke him again, will he come back.
Yes he is, still under whole number. Now hes not sitting though, he keeps stepping up. Trade itself should have gone a long time ago, will exit my adds at breakeven.
Out above whole, still holding partial from original scalp. No problem getting back in on more cues.
No surprise hes back again. Waiting for better entry higher up to get back in.
Added back in. Stop still tight.
Finally broke range, will wait for LOD. With these major gap stocks, obviously due for some serious entrancement and after all the weakness Ive just seen, I dont think LOD and then some is out of the question.
Been watching NVAX, DDOG finally had a pop higher, wondering if that seller is gone. It based out just before another breakdown level so will deal with some pullback. SPY also ripping higher.
Came into 2 trendlines, if it breaks and hold above there is no reason to let a 100$ win turn into a loser. Will exit around b/e.
Broke both TLS and got stuffed, we saw a flash of a seller at 64 pretty big. There is one more major TL from HOD and the open to work with.
Im not messing with it. Buying on tape is way too much right now. Annoying. Tiny win. Was good call because it kept on squeezing.
NVAX
Making a giant intraday triangle all around vwap and E spike hi + pmkt lo and AH lo.
It failed a break higher came back under, Now it just barely failed a break lower, came back up on v low volume. Theres a trade both ways here and seems like short is the best option atm. If its long Ill see it.
We pushed into upper TL, decent sized seller at 39, still all under the significant HTF levels. Still v low volume. Rejected lower again, but I am too focused on DDOG to try and get a good entry. Will have to settle for breakdown entry.
Got in, great huge volume spike. Will let it ride if I get chances to add later so be it. Still focusing mainly on DDOG.
Adding risk on 2nd breakdown. It broke, pbed v weak and started stepping lower again, sellers on offer looked to be chasing a bit so I followed. Stop the same for now but putting on more size as we keep losing levels. Targeting LOD.
2 significant intraday levels to lose here, .08 and whole number 38. Should obviously see more selling come in.
Really struggling ot move lower here, still getting tighter failing ot move any higher. But slow, RVOL is .8 so I suppose its to be expected. Seems v low for a stock in play as much as this has been.
BIG flush, did not add.
LOD is also yest LOD. That + triangle + intraday triangle + low rvol + obv weakness on tape now, thinking this could be an all day sell off too.
Flush retraced all the way back up and then some. Broke minor TL. This is chance to add if I see it. Im at 50$ risk rn, question is to I want to add more to that. I will need to see tape and failed break higher here.
Tape is so slow up here. We broke mini range on good buying. No reason to add. Now looking to exit breakeven and save some money if tape does not improve. It is a very good spot with intraday data for it to hold lower. But cant ignore warning signs.
Had an opportunity to get out at b/e and didnt pull the trigger. Stopped out for bigger loss. This stock wins today.
What a roller coaster of a day. Im calling it early, not on my game clearly. An absolute gift to end this day green.
The saying theres more risk in not getting bigger in your best setups ringing true again. 1 trade today eliminated 17 losses.
Problems today were coming in way to anxious to trade, also didnt get up out of bad fast enough so a little rushed to start the day. Rushed to start it, rushed to trade. Didnt look to be patient and take good trades. Just wanted short.
NVAX I was too impatient. Looking back at it, it was not as clean as I thought. The initial long was fine, but it failed and that was an ok loss. I needed to recognize the difference between a clean hold and something thats just holding around. It would have been better to wait for a break of the range first rather than a failed move, because we were still NOT cleanly holding above the HTF zone, just 1 level of 3.
As for the short, we failed a lod push lower and ripped back up on higher volume. Thats a problem. If the stock was truly that weak it would not have gotten above vwap and held it. If did hold under the HTF level, but after failing lower alread, I need more things in my favor than just TA. Losing vwap should have been step #1 to look for that short.
The 3rd long I took wasnt holding above the HTF zone either. We were for a moment, but lost it on big volume, and im trying to buy that dip .50cents below the level that should be holding above. Settling for less obvious trades. These arent High probability setups.
DIA was trash trade. Forced.
Only problem with DDOG is I didnt add anything to the initial trade after I saw the signs. Being tilted and down and bad trading I wasnt able to get to that point that I go 'oh I need to be bigger here.' If I had traded the open differently maybe I would have been on top of it. Signs that clear are where I need to put it on. The other adds were fine. Just didnt go thats how it is. No need to lose money after Ive been in a trade that long, seen that much weakness, then see it not follow through. Put it back on when I see it. And I saw it again and put it back on. Good management. What really sucked is seeing it rip all the way back on me and not find anymore R to turn lower. Again sucks to see but I did what I should have.
Good lesson learning day. Tomorrow will be big review day so ill save all my chart review for that. Will just read a book, review charts for names today, where they traded around see what I missed.
For tomorrow
-Get up and get out of bed.
-VWAP is just as important as HTF levels, but it is not THE most important aspect of a trade. Clear and obvious signs are what we should trade on, not just 1 out of 3. Sometimes we do have to wait for confirmation before entry. LT trades need to be holding majority above/below the HTF level. Not around it.
-If trades are going to happen when it is not cleanly above/below HTF levels, there has to be very clear tape cues for entry. If not, I am not taking high probability setups.
-Tape will forever show when to get big.
NVAX
Giant past 2 days triangle. At the open it broke down from it came right back above vwap + TL + HTF levels and held for a minute. Looked like a failed breakdown. Tape looked good I got a starter, couldnt hold got out.
Tried again, we broke the range lower and found no increase in selling. Buyers still there I got a starter and added once we broke whole number higher again. Few minutes sideways and a bigger seller showed up at whole number again and we were not hitting him. Warning signs, Stopped out on new range break lower. Will have to break to upside for me to be interested now.
You know I said to start the day the downside was probably main focus, showed no signs of strength to start even for these trades. RVOL was a bit lower still above 2 but maybe the market is what we needed to see more buying in this name.
So NVAX made new LOD, came back up to vwap and HTF zone again and started failing. Decent seller at .15 was unable to break through I got short off him. We ticked lower and I added more. We lost whole number and stepped under I added more.
Sellers started stepping in and I added more. Clear stop above .15 and now we have to break under vwap. If we cant Ill take a small win.
Tapped vwap and ripped back up that was the end of it. Cant get a read on this.
Ok tried it one more time. We got back above the HTF levels and held it nicely. We took a dip under range + vwap and saw no selling, that along with SPYs monster squeeze and NVAX showing bids and taking out offers along the way thought wed see the upside. Still no, stopped out.
DIA
Market is obviously weak. We had a weak start and started pulling back to levels. DIA had a clear breakdown level and pulled back to it. It acted almost perfectly tape had selling cues and I got a starter just under it as we started ticking lower. SPY was doing the same.
Added as we went lower again alongside SPY. I was somewhat big already so because of positioning, cant get much larger.
The volume on both SPY and DIA on this next mini leg lower was very low volume. It shortly ripped back higher and got me out.
SPY was coiling tighter, failed to make a HH above vwap and was dropping back under. DIA came and hit the level again + vwap. Got wrecked immediately and squeezed out way past my stop.
Well fucking myself pretty good today. DIA trades are shit and market not clear. Tilt, 3+ losses, need to walk away for a while.
well 0/14 is no fun. Its really hard for me to walk away right now. I want to keep going. I know there will still be good setups. Im giving myself one last trade to work with. Im chilling for half and hour catching up on some stats and then ill re look at charts and see if there is something.
Slipped up today I got too careless with what I was trading. I wanted the action today was supposed to be the big sell day right, so I got to get into a trade right, what looks good, yeah thats good enough lets take it and go.
Completely different mindset than I have been having lately. Too anxious to get something on, not patient enough to wait like I have been for the setup to look a lot cleaner and more obvious.
COME BACK
DDOG
DDOG was weak all day, pulled back to yest HOD and traded around it for a while. Was a huge seller not getting hit at 65 so I got short in front. Just scalping.
Good location, good tape action, sellers stepping down in front too. Small Risk. Big reward.
Well turned out fantastic. Again mindset issues, If I was on top of it I wouldve added. it had the A+ tape tells with big sellers stepping down constantly preventing a drop in price. Move a whole point lower and he was chasing.
Im a little upset because I wanted my stop to be if he broke, I thought he did as price was moving higher, but he was actually just moving his limit up getting better price, he never actually broke before i took my partial. Either way made my money back on the day. Not even intentionally, just so happend this one trade did it for me.
Now he finally broke and I took another half off.
Reasons to never give up on the day. p/l just a number. Take a minute time off, come back ready to go. Pull the trigger. Last trade means nothing on your last. Just a number.
We went sideways a bit still seeing huge selling signs. I added with stop above new recent LH. Seller is refreshing. Added more, putting on the risk as I see it on the tape. Have a good buffer to work with time to push.
We are now holding under HTF level with tape cues, and at bottom TL from new triangle. SPY is dropping hard. All signs point lower. Big seller still stepping down. Someone just took him, will see if he shows up again. I think hes still here, not showing same size, but other good sized sellers still stepping in. Yes he is def still here. Stop will be if he disappears. We broke TL and nothing happening so maybe sellers not as aggro.
Tape getting very choppy both directions. Seller still around. will cut risk in half if we hold above whole number.
This guy must be massive, just keeps refreshing. Still havent lost range low for a breakdown.
.62 the number to lose, seller at .74, slowly been moving lower.
Broke him again, will he come back.
Yes he is, still under whole number. Now hes not sitting though, he keeps stepping up. Trade itself should have gone a long time ago, will exit my adds at breakeven.
Out above whole, still holding partial from original scalp. No problem getting back in on more cues.
No surprise hes back again. Waiting for better entry higher up to get back in.
Added back in. Stop still tight.
Finally broke range, will wait for LOD. With these major gap stocks, obviously due for some serious entrancement and after all the weakness Ive just seen, I dont think LOD and then some is out of the question.
Been watching NVAX, DDOG finally had a pop higher, wondering if that seller is gone. It based out just before another breakdown level so will deal with some pullback. SPY also ripping higher.
Came into 2 trendlines, if it breaks and hold above there is no reason to let a 100$ win turn into a loser. Will exit around b/e.
Broke both TLS and got stuffed, we saw a flash of a seller at 64 pretty big. There is one more major TL from HOD and the open to work with.
Im not messing with it. Buying on tape is way too much right now. Annoying. Tiny win. Was good call because it kept on squeezing.
NVAX
Making a giant intraday triangle all around vwap and E spike hi + pmkt lo and AH lo.
It failed a break higher came back under, Now it just barely failed a break lower, came back up on v low volume. Theres a trade both ways here and seems like short is the best option atm. If its long Ill see it.
We pushed into upper TL, decent sized seller at 39, still all under the significant HTF levels. Still v low volume. Rejected lower again, but I am too focused on DDOG to try and get a good entry. Will have to settle for breakdown entry.
Got in, great huge volume spike. Will let it ride if I get chances to add later so be it. Still focusing mainly on DDOG.
Adding risk on 2nd breakdown. It broke, pbed v weak and started stepping lower again, sellers on offer looked to be chasing a bit so I followed. Stop the same for now but putting on more size as we keep losing levels. Targeting LOD.
2 significant intraday levels to lose here, .08 and whole number 38. Should obviously see more selling come in.
Really struggling ot move lower here, still getting tighter failing ot move any higher. But slow, RVOL is .8 so I suppose its to be expected. Seems v low for a stock in play as much as this has been.
BIG flush, did not add.
LOD is also yest LOD. That + triangle + intraday triangle + low rvol + obv weakness on tape now, thinking this could be an all day sell off too.
Flush retraced all the way back up and then some. Broke minor TL. This is chance to add if I see it. Im at 50$ risk rn, question is to I want to add more to that. I will need to see tape and failed break higher here.
Tape is so slow up here. We broke mini range on good buying. No reason to add. Now looking to exit breakeven and save some money if tape does not improve. It is a very good spot with intraday data for it to hold lower. But cant ignore warning signs.
Had an opportunity to get out at b/e and didnt pull the trigger. Stopped out for bigger loss. This stock wins today.
What a roller coaster of a day. Im calling it early, not on my game clearly. An absolute gift to end this day green.
The saying theres more risk in not getting bigger in your best setups ringing true again. 1 trade today eliminated 17 losses.
Problems today were coming in way to anxious to trade, also didnt get up out of bad fast enough so a little rushed to start the day. Rushed to start it, rushed to trade. Didnt look to be patient and take good trades. Just wanted short.
NVAX I was too impatient. Looking back at it, it was not as clean as I thought. The initial long was fine, but it failed and that was an ok loss. I needed to recognize the difference between a clean hold and something thats just holding around. It would have been better to wait for a break of the range first rather than a failed move, because we were still NOT cleanly holding above the HTF zone, just 1 level of 3.
As for the short, we failed a lod push lower and ripped back up on higher volume. Thats a problem. If the stock was truly that weak it would not have gotten above vwap and held it. If did hold under the HTF level, but after failing lower alread, I need more things in my favor than just TA. Losing vwap should have been step #1 to look for that short.
The 3rd long I took wasnt holding above the HTF zone either. We were for a moment, but lost it on big volume, and im trying to buy that dip .50cents below the level that should be holding above. Settling for less obvious trades. These arent High probability setups.
DIA was trash trade. Forced.
Only problem with DDOG is I didnt add anything to the initial trade after I saw the signs. Being tilted and down and bad trading I wasnt able to get to that point that I go 'oh I need to be bigger here.' If I had traded the open differently maybe I would have been on top of it. Signs that clear are where I need to put it on. The other adds were fine. Just didnt go thats how it is. No need to lose money after Ive been in a trade that long, seen that much weakness, then see it not follow through. Put it back on when I see it. And I saw it again and put it back on. Good management. What really sucked is seeing it rip all the way back on me and not find anymore R to turn lower. Again sucks to see but I did what I should have.
Good lesson learning day. Tomorrow will be big review day so ill save all my chart review for that. Will just read a book, review charts for names today, where they traded around see what I missed.
For tomorrow
-Get up and get out of bed.
-VWAP is just as important as HTF levels, but it is not THE most important aspect of a trade. Clear and obvious signs are what we should trade on, not just 1 out of 3. Sometimes we do have to wait for confirmation before entry. LT trades need to be holding majority above/below the HTF level. Not around it.
-If trades are going to happen when it is not cleanly above/below HTF levels, there has to be very clear tape cues for entry. If not, I am not taking high probability setups.
-Tape will forever show when to get big.
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