5/21 DRC
Lots of news out there this week. We still are playing off the MRNA news, now weve got China delisting news as well.
The Chine delisting doesnt make much sense to me. Its the exact same company, just wont be listed so do these names really deserve a double digit selloff? Im looking for longs but also got some good shorts I see in BABA and BIDU.
Not messing too much today with biotech names as there charts have gotten pretty ugly. Will have to wait for some HTF setups to look much better before taking them, but still watching.
SPY gapping down a couple points, but so far pmkt action has come all the way back up to retest the middle of yesterdays range. The short side is still here but I think this would be 'the top' if it was. I doubt wed get a big flush lower today but maybe today is the exact day to see it. Were just barely testing above weekly range highs and not getting anywhere. If bulls are tired, they will sell and take profits and shorts probably try again to later get crushed.
I got a couple shorts im watching for NFLX the FANG one. We shall see.
2 days in a row now I have screwed myself being too big at the open on trades that dont deserve that kind of risk.
Goal for today is to get aggressive in the trades that look the best then perform the best.
Do not get too big on 1st couple trades of the day. I do not need to start my day down 150$ anymore.
Pay attention to where my true stop would be and size appropriately. Not starting at 30$ and adding 30$. I start at 10/15 and add 10/15.
DDOG
Originally wanted long but it lost its HTF TL. Market was ripping higher and DDOG was getting sold under vwap. I spotted big sellers, once broken he refreshed and dropped lower, I got short in front. Didnt hold long, stopped out.
He showed up again after I got out, tried again. Didnt get fill and platform issues came up. Dumped new LOD. Waiting for pb to see if hes still there.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Dropped a point, ripped right back to 70 and hes still there. Waiting to see him get hit to know hes real, spread is huge.
Got in right next to him finally. 90% filled though had to market in the rest. Great start, we had a nice drop and sellers kept stepping lower.
Took off 100 to cover risk. At 70 hes even bigger showing 50k.
Pulled up to vwap, doesnt seem like it has the gas to get above it this time, looks to be rolling over. Will add if I see it.
Well we did pullback up to him. Showing 60k.
I am doubling down in front of him.
Got in, someone took him, stopped out.
Once again he reappeared. I am waiting for a break above him this time before I get in again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I lied I got a starter smaller size in front of him again with risk above past wick. Not just him breaking anymore.
I could have timed it last time as I saw him getting chipped away. I can try to do the same here, but if Im not fast enough I will deal with other wick stop out.
SPY dumped and made new LOD. DDOG followed breaking recent pivot low. I did not add or get full size.
SPY continuing and now we have bigger sellers stepping down.
Spread started getting crayz wide and choppy. Covered half.
Were at .65 rvol and dead ass low volume. This stock doesnt have reasons to collapse here. It is just under a big buy zone that past 2 days if anything this can be a good opportunity for buyers to come in. That seller hasnt moved lower, and until he does I should take what I can get.
Failed to break 69 on big downturn in market. Exited all. Looking to do this again if it can get higher to 70 again. We shall see.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much later in the day, after making new LOD. DDOG ripped back up to 70 and behold, he is still there.
Spread .15 cents. rvol .5 I will wait to see trades against him first.
Someone took him. Will see if he shows up again.
BIDU
Relatively strong, big pop at the open above 109. Pbd to it looking for a bit deeper of a pb into it to start getting something but just cant quite make it there.
Waited till I started seeing some buying and tape struggle to drop. But it kept dropping. No trade yet, will have to reclaim.
After I decided to stop looking, ripped right back up and made new range high. Waiting on retest again of 109.
BABA
Another in play china stock. Strong open, held well while SPY was dumping hard. It had come into play with prev ATH at 211.75 twice already in the day and was at the spot again. I waited for tape cues to start going higher and we got them. Got a starter and added once we got above 212.
SPY also had bounced and looked to pull up some.
Need to be cautious around vwap though, it can of course get worse and this is a bad spot for bulls to lose right now.
KWEB and BIDU bouncing up.
Moving my stop up to micro range lo here under .80. Things look to be rolling over lower. No need to take full loss on this.
All 3 got to vwap and turned lower sharply. Stop near be.
Market needs to improve here. Vol on BABA v v low not in a good spot. Tells me upside has no gas. That or we must be waiting to see what SPY KWEB and BIDU will do. 2 are turning up while SPY is dropping.
BABA getting sold hard above vwap. I am all out early. Gut feeling.
Will watch action above range hi .55 for possible re entry. Sellers are here above though.
In fact there may be a short here. I want to see it hit above range first though.
Slowly it made its way back under the whole number. Market does not seem to be improving very much here. Maybe another leg lower now. Unable to get a good short in.
Well it did make a new low alongside SPY, but got bought up and ripped higher right away. Looking for long again.
SPY
SPY had a nice downtrend pretty much all day. It came into play with TL from the open and a HTF area that had been in play for the past couple weeks. I got long against it on the over extension from TL. Was a short loss though, stopped out tiny loss.
MRNA
In play stock. Weak all day lost a lot of levels. Came back up to a v in play zone from 67 to 67.50 and found some R once. I got in super tiny size to start.
Happened really fast but refresh seller kept stuff it under 67 any time it got above. More stepped in below him. I just kept adding.
As we kept ticking lower I doubled down. SPY continued to get worse and MRNA started picking up on its way down. V clear stop to work with.
Cant quite lose the range yet. Still looks good but starting to get a bit worried here. Lots reasons for it to retrace back to vwap but cant ignore the selling. Question is, are there still sellers left. If range break does not stick under I exit half. Buyers are here at .50 holding it up for the moment.
On flush down big seller kept stepping lower as price dropped. Took off little less than a 1/3 to cover risk.
Started with 25 share adds and just kept going really. Stats are gonna be ugly on this but got up to 250 shares now 250 left and selling still here looks great.
Big buyers at 66. I think we can break so no reason for early exit yet.
SPY started popping up and MRNA followed started ticking up fast. Took another 100 off 150 left.
Slowly creeping its way back up to mini range, waiting to see if I see any big sellers come in to add more back in.
And we found him at .50 hidden size.
Dont want to get in in front yet, Market pulling up right now and MRNA has reasons to do the same. Will have to wait for him to either break and refresh or mkt to turn and hes still there.
In fact this is a good spot to take all off and look for re entry. Will stop out all if he breaks.
Well somehow stop was hit. Set at .52, triggered and filled at .50.
Flat out cant break him, market turning lower, MRNA followed a bit. I got back in small size to start.
Added more as it started going. Sellers followed. Will see what 66 looks like again here. Might have to be quick scalp. Dont like being in positions I didnt fight well for price.
Market changed its mind, headed higher. MRNA battle going on big buys big sells. Volume drying up drastically. Didnt make it to 66. Will exit soon if makes new highs here on 1min. Should be dumping but not.
And flat again. Will have to wait for it to reset or something on tape. TL is coming into play from midday.
Got to TL. Buyers are stepping in with size.
They are here but we are completely unable to get above this .25 cent zone.
Until they do. Will watch tape at .50 and whole number again.
25k sell at .50 + TL from LOD retest.
Sellers keep stepping in front of him, cant tell if real.
He broke.
No sell came back in. Will wait to see zone retest again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Exploded higher along with SPY back to the top end of the zone im watching, just under vwap. the 1sttop is no suprise same level as the spike high earlier in the month. Waiting for it to actually get to vwap before i look to sell.
We didnt get to vwap but got back under 67 and could not stick a move back above it. Refresh seller here. SPY just got back above vwap for 1st time in a while looking to see if that does anything to MRNA.
Buyers are here though. I think I am waiting for another test above 67 it seems like well get it.
Ended up dumping real fast. Saw seller stepping in front guiding it down. Went for market order in and got bad fil at .50 into another large buyer. Stopped out as it broke above him. SPY dumping alongside this move.
TSLA
An unexpected newcomer on the day. Had a pretty nice HTF triangle being made. Broke down from it and a HTF zone. Came right back up above the whole zone and vwap and held above it. Dipped under and got bought up once back above it with new triangle being made. Getting towards the apex of the triangle now above the zone.
It broke lower from vwap + bottom TL into the zone. Looking to see if it will failed and get bought again. right at POC on the day and SPY is still weak looking to go lower.
Some fairly significant selling on other minor TL break. No serious reaction though, needs to quickly find some buying here. SPY still dropping. Also .6 rvol.
If market continues to get weaker, there is a good looking scalp here under 805. Slight vol bump + the fail above + mkt.
Well SPY just ripped a point higher off of something? maybe nothing but the long is here now. Cant chase though have to wait on pb.
Got a starter in as we started ticking higher. A lot of selling came in but did nothing to price.
Kept ticking higher, price starter skipping up added twice. Broke above most recent pivot too. Needs another point higher to be able range high. Stop is a hold inder vwap. SPY is rolling over lower now after the spike.
Tape is getting jumpy, still very tight here. Needs SPY it looks like.
SPY kicking up, TSLA not closing under vwap at all. Still tighter. Waiting for momentum to add. Stop fairly close been holding 807 well for a few minutes. If SPY turns lower, TSLA follows im out.
Flashed under, bought up right away. Internals v tight too. SPY up again.
Getting impatient dont like seeing this much back and forth. Sellers stepping in. SPY turned. I bailed.
Came to 808 where there was seller. Lots of buying took him out but nothing afterwards. SPY dropping again.
Failed to move lower into next TL. started coming up to 809 with volume. Am going for scalp above 809 range high at 809.67
Hidden sell not showing real size. v good buying into it and bids stepping up. Looks good. SPY no help. SPY only matters when it does. So now we got relative strength.
Great break and added. Into 810 where big sell was. Still holding.
SPY decided to breakdown. Fuck that. Stopped out. Sellers came back in and held under 809 so no reason to hold at that point.
Done.
Getting to the point now I should leave before I give back anything else. made money back from yesterday happy with that.
Today was pretty good. DDOG was annoying as hell to start the day but at least I made my money back on it.
BABA was a solid idea along with BIDU if market found some strength.
MRNA was too bad it didnt fail harder but glad I got what I did out of it. Managed it well and added well. Saw it and got aggressive.
TSLA also a great one. Like I said SPY only matters when it does. Right before entry SPY was sideways and TSLA found relative strength. Then SPY dumped TSLA followed it. Looked like a great trade just before and after entry.
Biggest problems on the day.
Trying to get the perfect entry.
I missed a lot of v low risk trades because I wanted to see 'just one more thing' In MRNA and DDOG there were so many instances of hidden/huge sellers I could have been short against but I only caught a few.
Me stopping out after the seller is broken is FINE. its part of the game plan. Gotta deal with it. But when he shows right back up again. Why would I not want to get back in again? Hes still there, prevented price from going higher, showed back up again. What is it that stops me from getting back in.
I cant be afraid of taking these losses back to back to back to however many times. In DDOGs case I would have lost twice, for maybe ~80/100$ but then the winner I would have got was over 500$
And this is multiple occasions.
With MRNA its the same case. Level breaks above, oh well he stuffed it right back under and was there holding it under again. Huge RR trades happen here.
Solution
Be ok with the risk. Now that ive seen it several times today and this last week I know what can happen in best case scenarios. I have to put money on the line and be ok with not seeing one last failed push above him, or seeing if hes real or not. Because in most cases that 2nd chance doesnt come.
If I spot a refresh/big/hidden seller/buyer at a HTF level on an in play stock. I get in right away. Add most risk at best RR location and stop out when need to. Re enter when he shows up again.
Overall it was a good trading day. Absolutely not perfect but the trades I took I am good with. 100% compliance is also great. Still getting aggro when I see it. Hidden seller theme if its here to stay I need to make the most of it.
The Chine delisting doesnt make much sense to me. Its the exact same company, just wont be listed so do these names really deserve a double digit selloff? Im looking for longs but also got some good shorts I see in BABA and BIDU.
Not messing too much today with biotech names as there charts have gotten pretty ugly. Will have to wait for some HTF setups to look much better before taking them, but still watching.
SPY gapping down a couple points, but so far pmkt action has come all the way back up to retest the middle of yesterdays range. The short side is still here but I think this would be 'the top' if it was. I doubt wed get a big flush lower today but maybe today is the exact day to see it. Were just barely testing above weekly range highs and not getting anywhere. If bulls are tired, they will sell and take profits and shorts probably try again to later get crushed.
I got a couple shorts im watching for NFLX the FANG one. We shall see.
2 days in a row now I have screwed myself being too big at the open on trades that dont deserve that kind of risk.
Goal for today is to get aggressive in the trades that look the best then perform the best.
Do not get too big on 1st couple trades of the day. I do not need to start my day down 150$ anymore.
Pay attention to where my true stop would be and size appropriately. Not starting at 30$ and adding 30$. I start at 10/15 and add 10/15.
DDOG
Originally wanted long but it lost its HTF TL. Market was ripping higher and DDOG was getting sold under vwap. I spotted big sellers, once broken he refreshed and dropped lower, I got short in front. Didnt hold long, stopped out.
He showed up again after I got out, tried again. Didnt get fill and platform issues came up. Dumped new LOD. Waiting for pb to see if hes still there.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Dropped a point, ripped right back to 70 and hes still there. Waiting to see him get hit to know hes real, spread is huge.
Got in right next to him finally. 90% filled though had to market in the rest. Great start, we had a nice drop and sellers kept stepping lower.
Took off 100 to cover risk. At 70 hes even bigger showing 50k.
Pulled up to vwap, doesnt seem like it has the gas to get above it this time, looks to be rolling over. Will add if I see it.
Well we did pullback up to him. Showing 60k.
I am doubling down in front of him.
Got in, someone took him, stopped out.
Once again he reappeared. I am waiting for a break above him this time before I get in again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I lied I got a starter smaller size in front of him again with risk above past wick. Not just him breaking anymore.
I could have timed it last time as I saw him getting chipped away. I can try to do the same here, but if Im not fast enough I will deal with other wick stop out.
SPY dumped and made new LOD. DDOG followed breaking recent pivot low. I did not add or get full size.
SPY continuing and now we have bigger sellers stepping down.
Spread started getting crayz wide and choppy. Covered half.
Were at .65 rvol and dead ass low volume. This stock doesnt have reasons to collapse here. It is just under a big buy zone that past 2 days if anything this can be a good opportunity for buyers to come in. That seller hasnt moved lower, and until he does I should take what I can get.
Failed to break 69 on big downturn in market. Exited all. Looking to do this again if it can get higher to 70 again. We shall see.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much later in the day, after making new LOD. DDOG ripped back up to 70 and behold, he is still there.
Spread .15 cents. rvol .5 I will wait to see trades against him first.
Someone took him. Will see if he shows up again.
BIDU
Relatively strong, big pop at the open above 109. Pbd to it looking for a bit deeper of a pb into it to start getting something but just cant quite make it there.
Waited till I started seeing some buying and tape struggle to drop. But it kept dropping. No trade yet, will have to reclaim.
After I decided to stop looking, ripped right back up and made new range high. Waiting on retest again of 109.
BABA
Another in play china stock. Strong open, held well while SPY was dumping hard. It had come into play with prev ATH at 211.75 twice already in the day and was at the spot again. I waited for tape cues to start going higher and we got them. Got a starter and added once we got above 212.
SPY also had bounced and looked to pull up some.
Need to be cautious around vwap though, it can of course get worse and this is a bad spot for bulls to lose right now.
KWEB and BIDU bouncing up.
Moving my stop up to micro range lo here under .80. Things look to be rolling over lower. No need to take full loss on this.
All 3 got to vwap and turned lower sharply. Stop near be.
Market needs to improve here. Vol on BABA v v low not in a good spot. Tells me upside has no gas. That or we must be waiting to see what SPY KWEB and BIDU will do. 2 are turning up while SPY is dropping.
BABA getting sold hard above vwap. I am all out early. Gut feeling.
Will watch action above range hi .55 for possible re entry. Sellers are here above though.
In fact there may be a short here. I want to see it hit above range first though.
Slowly it made its way back under the whole number. Market does not seem to be improving very much here. Maybe another leg lower now. Unable to get a good short in.
Well it did make a new low alongside SPY, but got bought up and ripped higher right away. Looking for long again.
SPY
SPY had a nice downtrend pretty much all day. It came into play with TL from the open and a HTF area that had been in play for the past couple weeks. I got long against it on the over extension from TL. Was a short loss though, stopped out tiny loss.
MRNA
In play stock. Weak all day lost a lot of levels. Came back up to a v in play zone from 67 to 67.50 and found some R once. I got in super tiny size to start.
Happened really fast but refresh seller kept stuff it under 67 any time it got above. More stepped in below him. I just kept adding.
As we kept ticking lower I doubled down. SPY continued to get worse and MRNA started picking up on its way down. V clear stop to work with.
Cant quite lose the range yet. Still looks good but starting to get a bit worried here. Lots reasons for it to retrace back to vwap but cant ignore the selling. Question is, are there still sellers left. If range break does not stick under I exit half. Buyers are here at .50 holding it up for the moment.
On flush down big seller kept stepping lower as price dropped. Took off little less than a 1/3 to cover risk.
Started with 25 share adds and just kept going really. Stats are gonna be ugly on this but got up to 250 shares now 250 left and selling still here looks great.
Big buyers at 66. I think we can break so no reason for early exit yet.
SPY started popping up and MRNA followed started ticking up fast. Took another 100 off 150 left.
Slowly creeping its way back up to mini range, waiting to see if I see any big sellers come in to add more back in.
And we found him at .50 hidden size.
Dont want to get in in front yet, Market pulling up right now and MRNA has reasons to do the same. Will have to wait for him to either break and refresh or mkt to turn and hes still there.
In fact this is a good spot to take all off and look for re entry. Will stop out all if he breaks.
Well somehow stop was hit. Set at .52, triggered and filled at .50.
Flat out cant break him, market turning lower, MRNA followed a bit. I got back in small size to start.
Added more as it started going. Sellers followed. Will see what 66 looks like again here. Might have to be quick scalp. Dont like being in positions I didnt fight well for price.
Market changed its mind, headed higher. MRNA battle going on big buys big sells. Volume drying up drastically. Didnt make it to 66. Will exit soon if makes new highs here on 1min. Should be dumping but not.
And flat again. Will have to wait for it to reset or something on tape. TL is coming into play from midday.
Got to TL. Buyers are stepping in with size.
They are here but we are completely unable to get above this .25 cent zone.
Until they do. Will watch tape at .50 and whole number again.
25k sell at .50 + TL from LOD retest.
Sellers keep stepping in front of him, cant tell if real.
He broke.
No sell came back in. Will wait to see zone retest again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Exploded higher along with SPY back to the top end of the zone im watching, just under vwap. the 1sttop is no suprise same level as the spike high earlier in the month. Waiting for it to actually get to vwap before i look to sell.
We didnt get to vwap but got back under 67 and could not stick a move back above it. Refresh seller here. SPY just got back above vwap for 1st time in a while looking to see if that does anything to MRNA.
Buyers are here though. I think I am waiting for another test above 67 it seems like well get it.
Ended up dumping real fast. Saw seller stepping in front guiding it down. Went for market order in and got bad fil at .50 into another large buyer. Stopped out as it broke above him. SPY dumping alongside this move.
TSLA
An unexpected newcomer on the day. Had a pretty nice HTF triangle being made. Broke down from it and a HTF zone. Came right back up above the whole zone and vwap and held above it. Dipped under and got bought up once back above it with new triangle being made. Getting towards the apex of the triangle now above the zone.
It broke lower from vwap + bottom TL into the zone. Looking to see if it will failed and get bought again. right at POC on the day and SPY is still weak looking to go lower.
Some fairly significant selling on other minor TL break. No serious reaction though, needs to quickly find some buying here. SPY still dropping. Also .6 rvol.
If market continues to get weaker, there is a good looking scalp here under 805. Slight vol bump + the fail above + mkt.
Well SPY just ripped a point higher off of something? maybe nothing but the long is here now. Cant chase though have to wait on pb.
Got a starter in as we started ticking higher. A lot of selling came in but did nothing to price.
Kept ticking higher, price starter skipping up added twice. Broke above most recent pivot too. Needs another point higher to be able range high. Stop is a hold inder vwap. SPY is rolling over lower now after the spike.
Tape is getting jumpy, still very tight here. Needs SPY it looks like.
SPY kicking up, TSLA not closing under vwap at all. Still tighter. Waiting for momentum to add. Stop fairly close been holding 807 well for a few minutes. If SPY turns lower, TSLA follows im out.
Flashed under, bought up right away. Internals v tight too. SPY up again.
Getting impatient dont like seeing this much back and forth. Sellers stepping in. SPY turned. I bailed.
Came to 808 where there was seller. Lots of buying took him out but nothing afterwards. SPY dropping again.
Failed to move lower into next TL. started coming up to 809 with volume. Am going for scalp above 809 range high at 809.67
Hidden sell not showing real size. v good buying into it and bids stepping up. Looks good. SPY no help. SPY only matters when it does. So now we got relative strength.
Great break and added. Into 810 where big sell was. Still holding.
SPY decided to breakdown. Fuck that. Stopped out. Sellers came back in and held under 809 so no reason to hold at that point.
Done.
Getting to the point now I should leave before I give back anything else. made money back from yesterday happy with that.
Today was pretty good. DDOG was annoying as hell to start the day but at least I made my money back on it.
BABA was a solid idea along with BIDU if market found some strength.
MRNA was too bad it didnt fail harder but glad I got what I did out of it. Managed it well and added well. Saw it and got aggressive.
TSLA also a great one. Like I said SPY only matters when it does. Right before entry SPY was sideways and TSLA found relative strength. Then SPY dumped TSLA followed it. Looked like a great trade just before and after entry.
Biggest problems on the day.
Trying to get the perfect entry.
I missed a lot of v low risk trades because I wanted to see 'just one more thing' In MRNA and DDOG there were so many instances of hidden/huge sellers I could have been short against but I only caught a few.
Me stopping out after the seller is broken is FINE. its part of the game plan. Gotta deal with it. But when he shows right back up again. Why would I not want to get back in again? Hes still there, prevented price from going higher, showed back up again. What is it that stops me from getting back in.
I cant be afraid of taking these losses back to back to back to however many times. In DDOGs case I would have lost twice, for maybe ~80/100$ but then the winner I would have got was over 500$
And this is multiple occasions.
With MRNA its the same case. Level breaks above, oh well he stuffed it right back under and was there holding it under again. Huge RR trades happen here.
Solution
Be ok with the risk. Now that ive seen it several times today and this last week I know what can happen in best case scenarios. I have to put money on the line and be ok with not seeing one last failed push above him, or seeing if hes real or not. Because in most cases that 2nd chance doesnt come.
If I spot a refresh/big/hidden seller/buyer at a HTF level on an in play stock. I get in right away. Add most risk at best RR location and stop out when need to. Re enter when he shows up again.
Overall it was a good trading day. Absolutely not perfect but the trades I took I am good with. 100% compliance is also great. Still getting aggro when I see it. Hidden seller theme if its here to stay I need to make the most of it.
Comments
Post a Comment