5/22 Weekly Review
Excellent week. NOT perfect and made many mistakes still, but a great week of learning. I havent felt this state of flow in a while maybe ever. I remember a while back I felt like it, but now its stronger than ever. I can see the market, I feel like im one with it. I can feel the pressure or the lack of it. Im getting excellent reads on some names and capitalizing on it. My tape reading skills have gotten much better. That or things this last week are just easier to read.
My goals jumped around a lot this week. The main one was being aggressive and sizing up on setups when I see it and I did that everyday. And it paid off very well in most cases. I think the more important step is what I do when I size up but I am wrong. For starters my risk usually remains the same in these sized up trades unless time has passed and structure has changed. In that case I am able to reduce risk as still, best trades work immediately. And because I take these trades on good names with good cues, the market 'rewards' me by letting me go with a small loss instead of a full -1R.
A few problems this week showed up. Number one was taking too much size at the open. The 1st 4 days this week I started my day down 150$. That is obviously a problem. Thursday was fine as it was on Tape cues early morning on DDOG and I was sized appropriately. But MTW the problem was size and bad trades. More later.
A few issues with not stopping out quick enough, or choosing SL I want rather than the one I should use. Other than that though Compliance was great this week. I only settled for one bad trade I shorted that was not confirmed weak and in a strong market.
One thing I know I felt this week was a bit of frustration and felt the need to trade. I know I typed about it throughout the day as I got mad. Im usually good about getting over it and moving on to the next one. It just sucks to feel that way is all. Onto the next good trade.
Somedays towards the afternoon Id be down a little bit of money and start getting that urge to trade something anything. Again im getting better with it as Im not caving to it.
Another issue was not sticking around for the big moves. Getting too caught up in shorter time frame trading / not re entering or letting the stock do what it needs to do. I missed a huge TSLA long win. Originally was long but stopped out and went for scalp re entry. Well the scalp didnt work so then I assumed it wouldnt work at all. The trade was absolutely still there as it kept making HL and held important areas. Was not able to recognize it fast enough.
Another one was not being able to change bias short after a failed long. There were a few good short trades after the longs didnt work out. A lot of trader all looking at the long I was, also looking to get out if it fails. Adaptability.
NUMBERS
+$339
42/105 40%WR
86% Compliance
52 ~b/e
Avg win +$41
Avg loss -$22
+26.5R
TRADES
Always fun to look at the big wins, lets do it first.
BTW if you didnt know, click on the image to open it to full size.
PTON was a super solid win here with clear signs everywhere. 7 Total trades here for a +24R win and captured 2/3rds of the whole move.
Daily chart perfect too.
Hot stock, over extension on top side. Weak sell off, held under important level after failing twice and testing above it. Super tight range for tight risk. An excellent trade that I managed perfectly. I took off size when I didnt like what I saw and put it right back on when it confirmed again. Only reason I wasnt able to hold it until the close/LOD was cause I had to leave the desk for a few hours and trailing stop got me out. A++ trade.
WMT a simple dip buy against an in play level intraday and on the D. Super tight risk, tried to add didnt get the fill, had chance to add again but didnt pull the trigger. Was a +10R trade on 6$ or .06cents of risk. A 60$ win should have been 180 as I wanted 200 more shares.
DDOG not the best execution nor did I capitalize on it as much as I should have. Refresh seller at 70 would not go away. Had so many opportunities to get huge in front of him but I kept waiting for him to break, then stuff lower, then him appear again before I got involved. Only caught it once and It wasnt with full size or any adds. The other thing that made this trade a bit hard is that it was holding above a HTF zone that has been a buy zone the past week. So long or short? Cant fight the tape.
MRNA was one of those 'how much further can it really go after its already gone this far?' Was breaking news about its vaccine wasnt doing great so we got weakness all day. Then it came right into an area of interest and held under AND had massive seller holding it under 67. Same tape action as DDOG. I got huge here. I made the mistake in DDOG of simply not being in it, so here I simply got in it small size to start. Because I needed to be involved in this short with what I was seeing I was not going to miss it like DDOG.
We broke above him a few times and he just kept showing up so with small size and an area of risk I knew I could use as a stop, I just kept adding everytime I saw something bearish. Him refreshing was #1. Then we had other refresh sellers step in in front of him. Added more. Once we started finding momentum I got 350shares short on a stock that can move a point in a minute so to me thats pretty big.
Sellers kept stepping lower following price and ultimately I wanted this thing under 66, but then we ran into a hidden buyer we were unable to break under for a few minutes so I had to take some off. No way will I give anything up after being that big. Thats not good risk management. Ran into another hidden seller situation at the .50 so once he broke above, rejected lower, showed up again I added what I took off. Then I think the problem was we didnt have enough time for this stock to build pressure up again. We hadnt seen vwap all day, nor had a significant pullback. Who is left to make this thing dump points. Ended up being a decent win, but if things got really crazy could have been a ~500$ win. Instead left +150 but managed it exactly how I should have.
TWLO a solid dip buy to huge level. Super strong name pb to ATH + Huge baseline from earnings breakout. Just following the tape. Saw lots of buying down there. Joined with it, added with momentum. Solid win. Missed my one and only chance to get back in at VWAP. Thought it would get some kind of significant pb for me to get in on some kind of consolidation, no luck.
NFLX one of the better reads Ive gotten. Weak open after a failed pop in a weak market. With Daily chart reasons to sell off. Reversal bounce was 1st trade, but after it coiled around the area with relative weakness I started looking for the short. When it failed to reach top TL and rolled back over I got the starter, added with momentum, Pbd on me for a minute after TL break, but was still weak and saw selling. THEN I saw the giant seller come in at the whole number AFTER taking out a big bid that was sitting there. That was my all in signal. Couldnt get big enough. We busted under next whole number and he moved his order there. That was my out was if he broke. He did and covered 4/5ths. Again how far can we go lower without some kind of significant pb. Tried a few more as we kept holding and consolidating lower but no more sell came. Until later.
Market was strong, until it rolled over and NFLX started following. Took a scalp short on the breakdown of range low 432 and it just kept going. In total a +10R trade. Risk was not super tight here on my initial entries could fight for price on those initial shorts before the big signal. Overall great trades.
Fantastic A+ wins this week. Clear tape cues, clear interaction with levels. Couldnt ask for more, sized up on all of them. PTON couldve been bigger. DDOG couldve been bigger and had more trades on it.
LOSERS
To start the week I had a bad trade on BYND. Not even a HTF but a HTF TL. Was watching tape and we did have a hidden buyer here at .50. Was hard to read but I went pretty big on it. 300 risking .~30 cents so 100$ risk on a non HTF level/area trade, to start the day. AND got a bad fill on both entry and exit making matters much worse. Ofc he broke and I took my L. Later on was a solid win though.
ETSY was bad with size again. Was holding above the level but I started shorting with size once it looked like it was gonna roll lower from vwap. Took too big of a hit on that for the context of the situation.
Later on it looked like a great short. Sized up on it just a loser though. That one was a much better and acceptable loss.
AAP was pretty disappointing. I sized up in this one too after the many failed lower pushes, thought the short squeeze would come. After failing several times to get below the level, and last time to hold it with volume. Ignored the crazy spike hi with drawing the TL. Added big on the break of it and turned on me pretty quick. Volume leading up to that break was so slow and low I took it as warning signs it wasnt ready yet so stopped out before I thought itd get worse. Had one final shake out before it blew up.
I think my problem was ignoring that TL, perhaps too early. Didnt bother to look for re entry and I should have looked to get back in it after that failed breakdown. Obviously an excellent pop.
BYND is flat out sloppy here. Its not easy to read and we arent clearly holding any special levels. If anything it looks to be a better short as it cant make and HH or hold above any levels. I went for the long though. Couldve gone without this one.
DG is just bad trading here. Initial trade is great. It didnt work. I needed to get out much earlier than what I did. Then later chased the scalp and stopped out of that way too late again and didnt look to get in around vwap as it showed weakness. A shame.
TSLA almost a copy of mistakes from DG. Giant failed short move. Got out on anticipation of a sell off after it failed 1st triangle break. Added to get back in on scalp. Scalp didnt go so ignored the rest. This trade if I had looked to get back in. Which I should have at the range breakdown + TL retest. Went to 24 points higher and I wouldve caught all of it. Problems here are sized up too big too quickly considering TOD and scalped re entry instead of start small re entry and look to build back up again. Got lost in small picture and forgot about big picture.
That isnt all my losses this week but it is the more significant and notable ones.
Common mistakes.
1. Not looking to get back in > miss big picture moves
2. Size up too much too quickly > leads to stopping out to fast to prevent big loss.
3. Entering before confirmed weakness/strength > leads to getting chopped up as stock doesnt know what it wants yet.
I think not re entering is probably the biggest one here. Several times I told myself 'this is what I expect the stock to do if this happens.' Then it does happen. But im not involved because I either didnt see it, or was trading it and stopped out too many times previously.
Solution
Have to remember to fight for price and start small. Scalping trades at breakouts is still ok, but cannot forget big picture. These breakouts, though they may not explode right away, confirm my thesis that the stock should be moving lower or higher. There is reasons to stay involved. Fight for price. Get back in on pullbacks. Stay involved.
Other solution I made for myself when I missed all the DDOG/MRNA shorts with the giant sell signals. Just get in. LT starter size when you see it. Put the size on if if gets closer to the level.
Im am reading the tape very well and clearly. Need to keep getting aggressive when I see it and dont let up off the gas. It was my main strength this week and it paid off more times than not.
GOALS
1. Stay aggressive. When you see it keep clicking and following the flow.
2. Stay involved. Just because I took a loss doesnt necessarily mean big picture isnt in play anymore.
3. Do not size aggressively at the open unless I see it. Dont start the day down 3digits on trades that dont deserve the risk.
4. Late in day trades require more time to work. Be cautious on adding on 'momentum' as it might just be noise. Add on the successful pullbacks.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Strengths found. Weaknesses found. Common problems discovered. Solutions talked about and found. Goals set. 3 Day weekend. Lets rest and relax and get ready to do the good stuff on Tuesday. Keep pushing. More often than not my ideas are correct, just not right this minute.
My goals jumped around a lot this week. The main one was being aggressive and sizing up on setups when I see it and I did that everyday. And it paid off very well in most cases. I think the more important step is what I do when I size up but I am wrong. For starters my risk usually remains the same in these sized up trades unless time has passed and structure has changed. In that case I am able to reduce risk as still, best trades work immediately. And because I take these trades on good names with good cues, the market 'rewards' me by letting me go with a small loss instead of a full -1R.
A few problems this week showed up. Number one was taking too much size at the open. The 1st 4 days this week I started my day down 150$. That is obviously a problem. Thursday was fine as it was on Tape cues early morning on DDOG and I was sized appropriately. But MTW the problem was size and bad trades. More later.
A few issues with not stopping out quick enough, or choosing SL I want rather than the one I should use. Other than that though Compliance was great this week. I only settled for one bad trade I shorted that was not confirmed weak and in a strong market.
One thing I know I felt this week was a bit of frustration and felt the need to trade. I know I typed about it throughout the day as I got mad. Im usually good about getting over it and moving on to the next one. It just sucks to feel that way is all. Onto the next good trade.
Somedays towards the afternoon Id be down a little bit of money and start getting that urge to trade something anything. Again im getting better with it as Im not caving to it.
Another issue was not sticking around for the big moves. Getting too caught up in shorter time frame trading / not re entering or letting the stock do what it needs to do. I missed a huge TSLA long win. Originally was long but stopped out and went for scalp re entry. Well the scalp didnt work so then I assumed it wouldnt work at all. The trade was absolutely still there as it kept making HL and held important areas. Was not able to recognize it fast enough.
Another one was not being able to change bias short after a failed long. There were a few good short trades after the longs didnt work out. A lot of trader all looking at the long I was, also looking to get out if it fails. Adaptability.
NUMBERS
+$339
42/105 40%WR
86% Compliance
52 ~b/e
Avg win +$41
Avg loss -$22
+26.5R
TRADES
Always fun to look at the big wins, lets do it first.
BTW if you didnt know, click on the image to open it to full size.
PTON was a super solid win here with clear signs everywhere. 7 Total trades here for a +24R win and captured 2/3rds of the whole move.
Daily chart perfect too.
Hot stock, over extension on top side. Weak sell off, held under important level after failing twice and testing above it. Super tight range for tight risk. An excellent trade that I managed perfectly. I took off size when I didnt like what I saw and put it right back on when it confirmed again. Only reason I wasnt able to hold it until the close/LOD was cause I had to leave the desk for a few hours and trailing stop got me out. A++ trade.
WMT a simple dip buy against an in play level intraday and on the D. Super tight risk, tried to add didnt get the fill, had chance to add again but didnt pull the trigger. Was a +10R trade on 6$ or .06cents of risk. A 60$ win should have been 180 as I wanted 200 more shares.
DDOG not the best execution nor did I capitalize on it as much as I should have. Refresh seller at 70 would not go away. Had so many opportunities to get huge in front of him but I kept waiting for him to break, then stuff lower, then him appear again before I got involved. Only caught it once and It wasnt with full size or any adds. The other thing that made this trade a bit hard is that it was holding above a HTF zone that has been a buy zone the past week. So long or short? Cant fight the tape.
MRNA was one of those 'how much further can it really go after its already gone this far?' Was breaking news about its vaccine wasnt doing great so we got weakness all day. Then it came right into an area of interest and held under AND had massive seller holding it under 67. Same tape action as DDOG. I got huge here. I made the mistake in DDOG of simply not being in it, so here I simply got in it small size to start. Because I needed to be involved in this short with what I was seeing I was not going to miss it like DDOG.
We broke above him a few times and he just kept showing up so with small size and an area of risk I knew I could use as a stop, I just kept adding everytime I saw something bearish. Him refreshing was #1. Then we had other refresh sellers step in in front of him. Added more. Once we started finding momentum I got 350shares short on a stock that can move a point in a minute so to me thats pretty big.
Sellers kept stepping lower following price and ultimately I wanted this thing under 66, but then we ran into a hidden buyer we were unable to break under for a few minutes so I had to take some off. No way will I give anything up after being that big. Thats not good risk management. Ran into another hidden seller situation at the .50 so once he broke above, rejected lower, showed up again I added what I took off. Then I think the problem was we didnt have enough time for this stock to build pressure up again. We hadnt seen vwap all day, nor had a significant pullback. Who is left to make this thing dump points. Ended up being a decent win, but if things got really crazy could have been a ~500$ win. Instead left +150 but managed it exactly how I should have.
TWLO a solid dip buy to huge level. Super strong name pb to ATH + Huge baseline from earnings breakout. Just following the tape. Saw lots of buying down there. Joined with it, added with momentum. Solid win. Missed my one and only chance to get back in at VWAP. Thought it would get some kind of significant pb for me to get in on some kind of consolidation, no luck.
NFLX one of the better reads Ive gotten. Weak open after a failed pop in a weak market. With Daily chart reasons to sell off. Reversal bounce was 1st trade, but after it coiled around the area with relative weakness I started looking for the short. When it failed to reach top TL and rolled back over I got the starter, added with momentum, Pbd on me for a minute after TL break, but was still weak and saw selling. THEN I saw the giant seller come in at the whole number AFTER taking out a big bid that was sitting there. That was my all in signal. Couldnt get big enough. We busted under next whole number and he moved his order there. That was my out was if he broke. He did and covered 4/5ths. Again how far can we go lower without some kind of significant pb. Tried a few more as we kept holding and consolidating lower but no more sell came. Until later.
Market was strong, until it rolled over and NFLX started following. Took a scalp short on the breakdown of range low 432 and it just kept going. In total a +10R trade. Risk was not super tight here on my initial entries could fight for price on those initial shorts before the big signal. Overall great trades.
Fantastic A+ wins this week. Clear tape cues, clear interaction with levels. Couldnt ask for more, sized up on all of them. PTON couldve been bigger. DDOG couldve been bigger and had more trades on it.
LOSERS
To start the week I had a bad trade on BYND. Not even a HTF but a HTF TL. Was watching tape and we did have a hidden buyer here at .50. Was hard to read but I went pretty big on it. 300 risking .~30 cents so 100$ risk on a non HTF level/area trade, to start the day. AND got a bad fill on both entry and exit making matters much worse. Ofc he broke and I took my L. Later on was a solid win though.
ETSY was bad with size again. Was holding above the level but I started shorting with size once it looked like it was gonna roll lower from vwap. Took too big of a hit on that for the context of the situation.
Later on it looked like a great short. Sized up on it just a loser though. That one was a much better and acceptable loss.
AAP was pretty disappointing. I sized up in this one too after the many failed lower pushes, thought the short squeeze would come. After failing several times to get below the level, and last time to hold it with volume. Ignored the crazy spike hi with drawing the TL. Added big on the break of it and turned on me pretty quick. Volume leading up to that break was so slow and low I took it as warning signs it wasnt ready yet so stopped out before I thought itd get worse. Had one final shake out before it blew up.
I think my problem was ignoring that TL, perhaps too early. Didnt bother to look for re entry and I should have looked to get back in it after that failed breakdown. Obviously an excellent pop.
BYND is flat out sloppy here. Its not easy to read and we arent clearly holding any special levels. If anything it looks to be a better short as it cant make and HH or hold above any levels. I went for the long though. Couldve gone without this one.
DG is just bad trading here. Initial trade is great. It didnt work. I needed to get out much earlier than what I did. Then later chased the scalp and stopped out of that way too late again and didnt look to get in around vwap as it showed weakness. A shame.
TSLA almost a copy of mistakes from DG. Giant failed short move. Got out on anticipation of a sell off after it failed 1st triangle break. Added to get back in on scalp. Scalp didnt go so ignored the rest. This trade if I had looked to get back in. Which I should have at the range breakdown + TL retest. Went to 24 points higher and I wouldve caught all of it. Problems here are sized up too big too quickly considering TOD and scalped re entry instead of start small re entry and look to build back up again. Got lost in small picture and forgot about big picture.
That isnt all my losses this week but it is the more significant and notable ones.
Common mistakes.
1. Not looking to get back in > miss big picture moves
2. Size up too much too quickly > leads to stopping out to fast to prevent big loss.
3. Entering before confirmed weakness/strength > leads to getting chopped up as stock doesnt know what it wants yet.
I think not re entering is probably the biggest one here. Several times I told myself 'this is what I expect the stock to do if this happens.' Then it does happen. But im not involved because I either didnt see it, or was trading it and stopped out too many times previously.
Solution
Have to remember to fight for price and start small. Scalping trades at breakouts is still ok, but cannot forget big picture. These breakouts, though they may not explode right away, confirm my thesis that the stock should be moving lower or higher. There is reasons to stay involved. Fight for price. Get back in on pullbacks. Stay involved.
Other solution I made for myself when I missed all the DDOG/MRNA shorts with the giant sell signals. Just get in. LT starter size when you see it. Put the size on if if gets closer to the level.
Im am reading the tape very well and clearly. Need to keep getting aggressive when I see it and dont let up off the gas. It was my main strength this week and it paid off more times than not.
GOALS
1. Stay aggressive. When you see it keep clicking and following the flow.
2. Stay involved. Just because I took a loss doesnt necessarily mean big picture isnt in play anymore.
3. Do not size aggressively at the open unless I see it. Dont start the day down 3digits on trades that dont deserve the risk.
4. Late in day trades require more time to work. Be cautious on adding on 'momentum' as it might just be noise. Add on the successful pullbacks.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Strengths found. Weaknesses found. Common problems discovered. Solutions talked about and found. Goals set. 3 Day weekend. Lets rest and relax and get ready to do the good stuff on Tuesday. Keep pushing. More often than not my ideas are correct, just not right this minute.
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