5/18 DRC
SPY gapping up real good today. Up 8 points from the close and 4 from pmkt lows. Right above VA high so if were holding that market looking very strong after our failed breakdown.
Most names im watching are still gappers/news releases mainly to the long side.
Plan for the day is to just wait for levels to come into play and build a position if I see good tape action around them.
Goals for the day are to get big if I see the trade I need to get big in. Tape is everything.
Remain patient, dont need to force any trades, best ones are coming to me with clear obvious signs.
BYND
Making a huge 30 min triangle coiling so tight around a huge breakout pivot. 2 inside days in a row. Today pmkt is trading above the TL and holding going into pmkt hi at 138. Will also be above VA high, will take scalp at the bell.
It never happened and I was watching it the whole morning for interaction at some levels. We continuously got weak and ended up falling into the lower TL in the HTF triangle. I spotted a hidden buyer and 133.50 and he wasnt breaking so I got in in front. My order fill was not great and my exit was even worse and I had way too much size on. Took a big L.
ACB
Hot pot stock ripping lately. Good spike higher to start the day and retraced back to vwap + pmkt high. Was watching tape and there was plenty of buying. It broke lower from its range into the level and got bought back up so I got a starter. Added once we held it a while and tape still looked good.
Couldnt hold and stopped out.
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broke down pretty good but came back up stronger faster with more volume. Above vwap and pmkt high again. I waited for a retest of vwap + .50 to see an entry.
Maybe hidden buyer at .65, micro range low.
Broke under and a mini dump into .50 got bought up. Didnt see anything special on tape, waiting for it again. Left without me.
MORNING
Not a good start to the day/week. So many monster moves all I couldve taken and I didnt catch a thing. ALLO reclaimed vwap + yest POC level and held a TL with volume spikes, had a chance to enter off it and didnt. VIR HOD break would have been into 1ATR move and into another HTF bo level and it was dead volume so I ignored it and watching it blow up 5 points and it is still going. ACB Reclaimed everything I wanted to see, had another failed range breakdown into pmkt hi. Right away got bought up and I didnt put anything on because I didnt see enough tape confirmation. Thinking back there was, every big offer was taken out and plenty of green on the tape to showing buying it still there. I waited for a 2nd chance and never got it.
Waiting for something else.
TECD
Reversal trade. Big sell off over extension and 4x atr. Clear pa for entry and we had a big bid step in. Added to it and clear SL to work with under whole number. Trade started great did exactly what I like to see. Waiting for whole number and TL break to take.
Bids kept stepping up following price. No sellers here, very very thin on offer. Spread getting huge as bids step up. Will take partial when they finally drop.
Came right to whole number + TL and stalled
No surprise got spread out pretty good trying to exit but decent fil to take. Letting partial ride for TL break.
Big seller must be following this TL we are not breaking it. Stop is moved up, bids still here.
We broke him but nothing else happened. Stopped out just underneath.
PTON
Not originally on the watchlist but as I looked, it was in a very interesting spot. Had a HTF tl from a couple weeks ago in play and was holding. Was also underneath earnings gap high and staying under it. Intraday showed a TL in play and it kept getting tighter and tighter and we had huge volume spikes. I waited for a move one way or the other and we got a range break higher into the gap high that failed and rejected right back under. i was short. When we lost whole number again after a while I added again.
There is so much buying but we flat out arent going any higher. Stop is in and staying in, short squeeze could get ugly so making sure I am out if price is broken.
Ready to add as well if we pick up momentum to the downside and break this TL for good. Lots of trapped traders either direction.
We broke lower I added more, but nothing breaking. Lots of micro pivots under us to break. Waiting for tape to add more.
Under .74 is 1st pt. Lots of buy wicks here, well see If it can do it again after its been so long.
We busted and volume was biggest of the day. Looks good for a continued sell off. Stop is above whole nu,ber, no reason to lose money on this trade at this point. Will wait for LOD. Lots of HTF trends broken here.
A LOD break will also be right into yesterdays LOD just .10cents off.
There is still a lot of potential S underneath price here. But cant ignore the relative weakness and TL breaks and trapped traders.
After initial break so far hasnt seen anymore weakness. Still buying on the tape here.
Has not held under .75 level, if anything is now holding above it.
Massive sell hit the market and we did not budge at all. There is buying still going on. Need to be out sooner than later. Stop moved to range high.
Another huge sell hit, no price drop.
Until it did. We lost that .75 again and I decided to add. If all that buying is there holding it up, what happens when it doesnt anymore. Made new low, selling really here now.
Came close to LOD and big bid stepped in, freaked price out me included and took off most of that last add to cover risk.
Trade has been odd to say the least but im still sticking with it. I have a nice Downtrendline from HOD to work with. If its broken and holds above thats my stop
We;; after that new low we ripped right back up to that TL, broke it, didnt break lower high, then came right off lower again. Stop is just above range high. Again were back at that .75 and im seeing huge buys coming in. Could be a place to put more on, but dont think I should yet. Time needs to pass and cant ignore that monster buying still here. Sellers obviously have to be even bigger though. Unable to make a new high all day still.
Our next mini leg lower was on super light volume and I havent seen any good tape cues to expect something special here. I covered half early on new pop.
Made new micro range high, failed back lower, followed by another huge order. Cant tell if buy or sell. Looking to put risk back on if we can make a new low here, if not im getting out just above .80
It crept back up there, got a nice stuff candle lower again, decided to put some risk back on it. Again still seeing buying but we are not rising. Big bid at .60 will add more if we get under him.
The chart is starting to clean up and look a lot better. We pulled back to that .75 area and now holding under very well.
We broke under him I added more. Big sell hit the tape. Into another big bid at .50, broke under him too. And another at .40 broke him too. And another at .30, did not break him yet.
Have to hold for LOD at this point. Too much failed bullishness to not expect a new LOD at some point. Stop at breakeven.
Still seeing these big flushes get bought up and retrace up quickly. Sellers wont give up to make a HH, buyers wont give up for a new LOD. Still tight, still under HTF levels/areas.
Pull up this time was vastly weaker compared to last times. V little volume. New level to hold under is .60
SPY pulling back a little, but internals making new LOD should help.
Same as last flush, bought up and go sideways. This time its a lot weaker though still expecting downside. I have a minor TL here to work with plus the new micro range were making, Makes for a good new stop loss location.
How odd that on the weakest pullback, it runs the furthest against me. Came just under stop/new HH and turned lower again.
We got tape action again just like DDOG. Seller hit offer and stepped down, then disappeared. Then big sell hit market making a new LL, but still not quite LOD. I couldnt add, it wasnt there long enough for me to judge and see it.
New LOD will be right into another HTF S + whole number + 1ATR move. Need to be quick.
NEW LOD made, right into .13 that busted for a second but didnt flush through. If PTON can make it under 44.80 I would consider it super weak. There is a good .40 cent zone here of good S that may or may not hold. Were currently on 8 minutes of consecutive 1min candles without making a high. Take profit still on that basis.
1st non red candle made. Stop just above taking majority off. It makes sense for this stock to hold this area so I need to take profits off like it would. Instead of half off, im 80% out.
Huge bust lower once it got back to LOD / whole number under all of those levels I was just saying should hold lol. Right away went to tape to find spot to take off again and .75 was oddly holding under absorbing a bit. Still following 1min candles.
And taken.
There are a lot of levels to now pullback to and hod under for more. I wont add for another 20 minutes maybe, Theres not TL to work with ATM. 5 separate levels to see if we hold under or not. 44 is next stop if it was it. If the craziest should happen, under 42.40 should really see some significant selling. Still its PTON, its a hot stock and been one of the strongest. There are reasons for longer term players to sell and take profits. But theres also a lot of reasons to buy this dip still.
Pulled back not even 50%, into a new range. Broke a bit lower into an even smaller tighter micro range. All holding above last thursday LOD. Not super significant of a level, but thats what its doing.
Enough time has passed now, this high will be my last stop 45.10 until/if we make a new low.
Long enough now getting very tight just above that HTF level. Im going to add if we break and make a new range low here. Stop will be above the whole number. Cant make a new high, will continue with the weakness.
Lots of selling into the level but unable to break again. Big spike up after it failed again, rejected right back lower to it again. Volume is increasing down here.
Still lots of selling and getting tighter, Sellers stepping it down and down, not breaking under yet. Must be hidden buyer.
Finally broke, bad fill but we dumped right away after losing it. Waiting for 44.10. LOD at .53
Level I want to see broken is 44. Again theres a decent zone of S from 44 to 44.20. on first drop we got to .25 and we look ready for another move lower. New stop is in for a small win on the add.
Due to time constraints im going to have to cut my add size in half a bit early. We arent breaking this .25 level and we tried several time here. I have to leave in less than 5 and id rather take them small win when I cant manage it. I am leaving a trailing stop for my last original 75 shares that I started with.
Ended up getting trailed out at 44.21. Too bad it only went 5 cents higher then never wouldve hit that stop again.
A little disappointing today. I missed the really good moves to start the day, but was at least able to stick around and find PTON for a nice W. Obviously biggest issue was not taking trades today.
If the stock is acting bullish, above my levels, it pbs to that level, taps it, rips back up, thats reason to at least get something. Not sure what I was waiting for I think I wanted to see a deeper pb before I got involved but it was not that kind of day. Gotta be on top of it.
There were enough variables today in those trades I missed for me to get a starter going just by being at that level alone. As always starting small and adding the risk as it proves itself. I should have been ok with it. Seems like a hole in my process here I will work on today.
Most names im watching are still gappers/news releases mainly to the long side.
Plan for the day is to just wait for levels to come into play and build a position if I see good tape action around them.
Goals for the day are to get big if I see the trade I need to get big in. Tape is everything.
Remain patient, dont need to force any trades, best ones are coming to me with clear obvious signs.
BYND
Making a huge 30 min triangle coiling so tight around a huge breakout pivot. 2 inside days in a row. Today pmkt is trading above the TL and holding going into pmkt hi at 138. Will also be above VA high, will take scalp at the bell.
It never happened and I was watching it the whole morning for interaction at some levels. We continuously got weak and ended up falling into the lower TL in the HTF triangle. I spotted a hidden buyer and 133.50 and he wasnt breaking so I got in in front. My order fill was not great and my exit was even worse and I had way too much size on. Took a big L.
ACB
Hot pot stock ripping lately. Good spike higher to start the day and retraced back to vwap + pmkt high. Was watching tape and there was plenty of buying. It broke lower from its range into the level and got bought back up so I got a starter. Added once we held it a while and tape still looked good.
Couldnt hold and stopped out.
--------------------------------------------------------
broke down pretty good but came back up stronger faster with more volume. Above vwap and pmkt high again. I waited for a retest of vwap + .50 to see an entry.
Maybe hidden buyer at .65, micro range low.
Broke under and a mini dump into .50 got bought up. Didnt see anything special on tape, waiting for it again. Left without me.
MORNING
Not a good start to the day/week. So many monster moves all I couldve taken and I didnt catch a thing. ALLO reclaimed vwap + yest POC level and held a TL with volume spikes, had a chance to enter off it and didnt. VIR HOD break would have been into 1ATR move and into another HTF bo level and it was dead volume so I ignored it and watching it blow up 5 points and it is still going. ACB Reclaimed everything I wanted to see, had another failed range breakdown into pmkt hi. Right away got bought up and I didnt put anything on because I didnt see enough tape confirmation. Thinking back there was, every big offer was taken out and plenty of green on the tape to showing buying it still there. I waited for a 2nd chance and never got it.
Waiting for something else.
TECD
Reversal trade. Big sell off over extension and 4x atr. Clear pa for entry and we had a big bid step in. Added to it and clear SL to work with under whole number. Trade started great did exactly what I like to see. Waiting for whole number and TL break to take.
Bids kept stepping up following price. No sellers here, very very thin on offer. Spread getting huge as bids step up. Will take partial when they finally drop.
Came right to whole number + TL and stalled
No surprise got spread out pretty good trying to exit but decent fil to take. Letting partial ride for TL break.
Big seller must be following this TL we are not breaking it. Stop is moved up, bids still here.
We broke him but nothing else happened. Stopped out just underneath.
PTON
Not originally on the watchlist but as I looked, it was in a very interesting spot. Had a HTF tl from a couple weeks ago in play and was holding. Was also underneath earnings gap high and staying under it. Intraday showed a TL in play and it kept getting tighter and tighter and we had huge volume spikes. I waited for a move one way or the other and we got a range break higher into the gap high that failed and rejected right back under. i was short. When we lost whole number again after a while I added again.
There is so much buying but we flat out arent going any higher. Stop is in and staying in, short squeeze could get ugly so making sure I am out if price is broken.
Ready to add as well if we pick up momentum to the downside and break this TL for good. Lots of trapped traders either direction.
We broke lower I added more, but nothing breaking. Lots of micro pivots under us to break. Waiting for tape to add more.
Under .74 is 1st pt. Lots of buy wicks here, well see If it can do it again after its been so long.
We busted and volume was biggest of the day. Looks good for a continued sell off. Stop is above whole nu,ber, no reason to lose money on this trade at this point. Will wait for LOD. Lots of HTF trends broken here.
A LOD break will also be right into yesterdays LOD just .10cents off.
There is still a lot of potential S underneath price here. But cant ignore the relative weakness and TL breaks and trapped traders.
After initial break so far hasnt seen anymore weakness. Still buying on the tape here.
Has not held under .75 level, if anything is now holding above it.
Massive sell hit the market and we did not budge at all. There is buying still going on. Need to be out sooner than later. Stop moved to range high.
Another huge sell hit, no price drop.
Until it did. We lost that .75 again and I decided to add. If all that buying is there holding it up, what happens when it doesnt anymore. Made new low, selling really here now.
Came close to LOD and big bid stepped in, freaked price out me included and took off most of that last add to cover risk.
Trade has been odd to say the least but im still sticking with it. I have a nice Downtrendline from HOD to work with. If its broken and holds above thats my stop
We;; after that new low we ripped right back up to that TL, broke it, didnt break lower high, then came right off lower again. Stop is just above range high. Again were back at that .75 and im seeing huge buys coming in. Could be a place to put more on, but dont think I should yet. Time needs to pass and cant ignore that monster buying still here. Sellers obviously have to be even bigger though. Unable to make a new high all day still.
Our next mini leg lower was on super light volume and I havent seen any good tape cues to expect something special here. I covered half early on new pop.
Made new micro range high, failed back lower, followed by another huge order. Cant tell if buy or sell. Looking to put risk back on if we can make a new low here, if not im getting out just above .80
It crept back up there, got a nice stuff candle lower again, decided to put some risk back on it. Again still seeing buying but we are not rising. Big bid at .60 will add more if we get under him.
The chart is starting to clean up and look a lot better. We pulled back to that .75 area and now holding under very well.
We broke under him I added more. Big sell hit the tape. Into another big bid at .50, broke under him too. And another at .40 broke him too. And another at .30, did not break him yet.
Have to hold for LOD at this point. Too much failed bullishness to not expect a new LOD at some point. Stop at breakeven.
Still seeing these big flushes get bought up and retrace up quickly. Sellers wont give up to make a HH, buyers wont give up for a new LOD. Still tight, still under HTF levels/areas.
Pull up this time was vastly weaker compared to last times. V little volume. New level to hold under is .60
SPY pulling back a little, but internals making new LOD should help.
Same as last flush, bought up and go sideways. This time its a lot weaker though still expecting downside. I have a minor TL here to work with plus the new micro range were making, Makes for a good new stop loss location.
How odd that on the weakest pullback, it runs the furthest against me. Came just under stop/new HH and turned lower again.
We got tape action again just like DDOG. Seller hit offer and stepped down, then disappeared. Then big sell hit market making a new LL, but still not quite LOD. I couldnt add, it wasnt there long enough for me to judge and see it.
New LOD will be right into another HTF S + whole number + 1ATR move. Need to be quick.
NEW LOD made, right into .13 that busted for a second but didnt flush through. If PTON can make it under 44.80 I would consider it super weak. There is a good .40 cent zone here of good S that may or may not hold. Were currently on 8 minutes of consecutive 1min candles without making a high. Take profit still on that basis.
1st non red candle made. Stop just above taking majority off. It makes sense for this stock to hold this area so I need to take profits off like it would. Instead of half off, im 80% out.
Huge bust lower once it got back to LOD / whole number under all of those levels I was just saying should hold lol. Right away went to tape to find spot to take off again and .75 was oddly holding under absorbing a bit. Still following 1min candles.
And taken.
There are a lot of levels to now pullback to and hod under for more. I wont add for another 20 minutes maybe, Theres not TL to work with ATM. 5 separate levels to see if we hold under or not. 44 is next stop if it was it. If the craziest should happen, under 42.40 should really see some significant selling. Still its PTON, its a hot stock and been one of the strongest. There are reasons for longer term players to sell and take profits. But theres also a lot of reasons to buy this dip still.
Pulled back not even 50%, into a new range. Broke a bit lower into an even smaller tighter micro range. All holding above last thursday LOD. Not super significant of a level, but thats what its doing.
Enough time has passed now, this high will be my last stop 45.10 until/if we make a new low.
Long enough now getting very tight just above that HTF level. Im going to add if we break and make a new range low here. Stop will be above the whole number. Cant make a new high, will continue with the weakness.
Lots of selling into the level but unable to break again. Big spike up after it failed again, rejected right back lower to it again. Volume is increasing down here.
Still lots of selling and getting tighter, Sellers stepping it down and down, not breaking under yet. Must be hidden buyer.
Finally broke, bad fill but we dumped right away after losing it. Waiting for 44.10. LOD at .53
Level I want to see broken is 44. Again theres a decent zone of S from 44 to 44.20. on first drop we got to .25 and we look ready for another move lower. New stop is in for a small win on the add.
Due to time constraints im going to have to cut my add size in half a bit early. We arent breaking this .25 level and we tried several time here. I have to leave in less than 5 and id rather take them small win when I cant manage it. I am leaving a trailing stop for my last original 75 shares that I started with.
Ended up getting trailed out at 44.21. Too bad it only went 5 cents higher then never wouldve hit that stop again.
A little disappointing today. I missed the really good moves to start the day, but was at least able to stick around and find PTON for a nice W. Obviously biggest issue was not taking trades today.
If the stock is acting bullish, above my levels, it pbs to that level, taps it, rips back up, thats reason to at least get something. Not sure what I was waiting for I think I wanted to see a deeper pb before I got involved but it was not that kind of day. Gotta be on top of it.
There were enough variables today in those trades I missed for me to get a starter going just by being at that level alone. As always starting small and adding the risk as it proves itself. I should have been ok with it. Seems like a hole in my process here I will work on today.
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