5/15 Weekly Review
Its almost like im playing a different game. And im pretty good at it. Im good at find places where the stock should be turning. Most of the time im right. When im wrong Im not sized up so risk is small and I have a small loss. When it starts working for me I add risk and potential reward increases exponentially. Ive had a few cases where I ended up risking ~120$, to make ~800$ and end up with a 60$, and a 'small win' that in a normal case would be ~10/20$, but this one was 60$.
I havent had that feeling of being nervous is a position because im big, but I like it. I remember in a chat with traders ep, the guy said if your not a little uncomfortable when youre sizing up, youre not doing it right. It keeps me focused more for sure. Constantly aware of the tape. Still expecting these trades to work right from the beginning and majority do so I know im on the right track with expectations still.
Cutting losers still very efficiently. Only a few times I gave the trade too much space after seeing warning signs but getting better at it.
Comparing my trading now to my breakouts is a huge difference.
Because I am starting small, the decreased risk is an obvious plus to losing trades. It also makes me want to get bigger right away since im small, but have a good feeling the trade is a winner, why else would I take it? Quickly adding risk on to capitalize on the best trades is huge. Compared to when im full size from breakouts. I have to tolerate being down on the trade right away, and still holding because its part of the plan.
Positioning is also a huge difference. It feels a lot better mentally to be wrong and out of a trade after minutes or seconds rather than after half an hour or more. When youre not in a position you have that much more open mind space to focus on whatever it needs to be on.
It was so annoying to take these breakout trades, see it reverse on you, hold the trade right around your stop level or some other S/R in your favor, but be down money on the trade at that point. Stop out and then see it fake a break of that S/R and come right back in your favor. Just enter at the point you might be wrong. If youre wrong, youll know it right away, if youre right, you have such a good position of strength to be building a trade from.
I would much rather be wrong right now than 20 minutes from now. And I think thats all based on risk. Because if I put a trade one like I might be wrong right now, I dont risk that much, because I might be wrong. But as you slowly see more and more how right you are, you add that risk on. Can still always be wrong that why theres the risk management part. But you have to trade like it. I Spent so long treating it like a black and white subject when it doesnt have to be. And that fits my strengths and thats how it should be.
Combining tape, risk, and TA to form a High Probability setup.
I think if I had to describe it all in a word, its 'relief.'
I feel much more at ease being wrong now than later. Its less stress in my trading.
The Week itself
Great week. Super happy with how things are going now. Im trading the market and my strengths. Combining both to get and see the good stuff. No longer doing just what I want or just what the market wants and I think the numbers are showing it.
Now its by no means perfect, but there is a lot of potential im seeing in a lot of areas. First the numbers.
+$423
33% WR 28 / 84
73% Compliance
+11R
46 ~breakeven trades
29 Full -1R loss
11 More than -1R loss
Avg win +$53
Avg Loss -$19
4 Winning days
Avg risk on Winners $30
Avg risk on losers $25
Avg win day +$116
Avg losing day -$42
17k Shares traded.
WR down mainly from a really bad thursday. 12 non-compliant trades, forced a lot that day.
I caught some real nice wins for my avg win to be that high. Avg loss less than half is great too. All part of adding to winners and not to losers. Keeps the losses small, builds risk on the best setups.
Avg risk on losers less than winners is good too. Its hard to get a consistent number with this because I consider each add its own separate trade. So if I have a win and I added 4 times, its more likely a 20$win + 20$win + 15$ +10$ +10$ etc. So while the win was a total 75$ the average win was only 15$ and determining average risk is just as odd. As long as the numbers arent obviously skewed or inverted, wins should still be on average bigger than the losers in both p/l and risk. If they are inverted I know im not being consistent in my adds.
The more I think about it, my adds to my winners should be bigger anyways as I am usually adding same tier sizes, while keeping same stop. So avg price increases, risk increases, but risk location stays the same.
Best trades
Excellent long catch at HTF levels with volume cues and a failed vwap break. Nice adds as we kept going, was a solid win +14.8R total risk 86$ p/l +211$. Sold half really early on new HOD break. Maybe couldve held on for a better move but notes say market was dumping during this long. Better safe than sorry.
Another dip buy on a failed breakdown into HTF level for starter. Adds were right on top of it as it kept pushing up for me. Took profits where I should, exited the rest where I should. Solid trade. +5.2R +170$ risk 98$
DDOG best RR scenario and win this week. BIG regrets not adding to this one as I should have and couldve gotten huge (to me) with very little risk. Hidden seller wouldnt go away, that with TL break and HTF level failing to hold above + vwap + tape cues with sellers stepping lower and refresh seller holding it lower was an A+ scenario to really put as much as I want on risking pennies. +8R +405$ risking 50$
Rewatching tape the time I should have added was when it came back to retest seller, faded off sharply on more selling. Bam.
UNH a great case of everything going right. RVOL Daily failure, relative strength, coiling above level, volume and tape cues. Just kept going. Solid adds as well. Only change I could do is one more add after big seller break into hod break. +7.4R + 241$ risking 94$
Work was great because I was able to look past the long losses, flip my bias short for a solid win. Didnt add though and I should have. Was almost the same case as DDOG with the refresh hidden sellers. Could have but didnt. +6.6R +93$ risking 14$
A few commonalities here. The for certain one is tape. I follow the flow.
Another is the usual failed moves, failed range breaks into the HTF levels.
Another is lack of volume on the failed breaks.
Only problems here is not being big enough. Some trades im able to do it, others I cant seem to pull the trigger quick enough. The tape is everything for these adds. If the tape is there I need to push, if its not, let it be.
A few trades I was able to get really big in risking ~125-150 for a move. Sucks to not see it follow through but I think its even better when I can cut them for less than I am risking.
I think if youre trading the right names at the right times, fighting for price and getting good entries, the stock can treat you nice enough to the point you are able to cut it quicker while still respecting the trade.
Bad.
So not everything was nice this week. Compliance slipped up a several time and as always paid for it.
One problem was not getting out fast enough. If my stop area gets skipped over I have this habit of waiting for it to come back to it
Thursday I woke up late, felt rushed to chart, and it showed in my trading. I started taking anything that looked good enough and quickly got in a hole.
Only 2 main issues. Not stopping out fast enough. And settling for lesser trades.
2 easy fixes.
1. Stop out when youre supposed to.
2. Wake up earlier.
All my trades except for Thursday ones were trades I should have and did take.
Final thoughts.
Solid week. Im really happy with the way im trading now. Said it just about everyday this week but im capitalizing on strengths and putting it all together. I spent so long trying to NOT buy dips and catch moves and only stick to breaks, and that was not doing enough of what I am good at. It just feels good to finally feel like im in the right spot.
Im almost positive next week/month ill be somewhere else again. Its how its always been its probably how it always will be. I find more problems, I find more solutions. More strengths more weaknesses.
Goals for next week is to get big. I want to put 200$ down on a trade and see what happens. There were a few this week I could have/ should have gone for it but I didnt. I want to step on the gas.
I havent had that feeling of being nervous is a position because im big, but I like it. I remember in a chat with traders ep, the guy said if your not a little uncomfortable when youre sizing up, youre not doing it right. It keeps me focused more for sure. Constantly aware of the tape. Still expecting these trades to work right from the beginning and majority do so I know im on the right track with expectations still.
Cutting losers still very efficiently. Only a few times I gave the trade too much space after seeing warning signs but getting better at it.
Comparing my trading now to my breakouts is a huge difference.
Because I am starting small, the decreased risk is an obvious plus to losing trades. It also makes me want to get bigger right away since im small, but have a good feeling the trade is a winner, why else would I take it? Quickly adding risk on to capitalize on the best trades is huge. Compared to when im full size from breakouts. I have to tolerate being down on the trade right away, and still holding because its part of the plan.
Positioning is also a huge difference. It feels a lot better mentally to be wrong and out of a trade after minutes or seconds rather than after half an hour or more. When youre not in a position you have that much more open mind space to focus on whatever it needs to be on.
It was so annoying to take these breakout trades, see it reverse on you, hold the trade right around your stop level or some other S/R in your favor, but be down money on the trade at that point. Stop out and then see it fake a break of that S/R and come right back in your favor. Just enter at the point you might be wrong. If youre wrong, youll know it right away, if youre right, you have such a good position of strength to be building a trade from.
I would much rather be wrong right now than 20 minutes from now. And I think thats all based on risk. Because if I put a trade one like I might be wrong right now, I dont risk that much, because I might be wrong. But as you slowly see more and more how right you are, you add that risk on. Can still always be wrong that why theres the risk management part. But you have to trade like it. I Spent so long treating it like a black and white subject when it doesnt have to be. And that fits my strengths and thats how it should be.
Combining tape, risk, and TA to form a High Probability setup.
I think if I had to describe it all in a word, its 'relief.'
I feel much more at ease being wrong now than later. Its less stress in my trading.
The Week itself
Great week. Super happy with how things are going now. Im trading the market and my strengths. Combining both to get and see the good stuff. No longer doing just what I want or just what the market wants and I think the numbers are showing it.
Now its by no means perfect, but there is a lot of potential im seeing in a lot of areas. First the numbers.
+$423
33% WR 28 / 84
73% Compliance
+11R
46 ~breakeven trades
29 Full -1R loss
11 More than -1R loss
Avg win +$53
Avg Loss -$19
4 Winning days
Avg risk on Winners $30
Avg risk on losers $25
Avg win day +$116
Avg losing day -$42
17k Shares traded.
WR down mainly from a really bad thursday. 12 non-compliant trades, forced a lot that day.
I caught some real nice wins for my avg win to be that high. Avg loss less than half is great too. All part of adding to winners and not to losers. Keeps the losses small, builds risk on the best setups.
Avg risk on losers less than winners is good too. Its hard to get a consistent number with this because I consider each add its own separate trade. So if I have a win and I added 4 times, its more likely a 20$win + 20$win + 15$ +10$ +10$ etc. So while the win was a total 75$ the average win was only 15$ and determining average risk is just as odd. As long as the numbers arent obviously skewed or inverted, wins should still be on average bigger than the losers in both p/l and risk. If they are inverted I know im not being consistent in my adds.
The more I think about it, my adds to my winners should be bigger anyways as I am usually adding same tier sizes, while keeping same stop. So avg price increases, risk increases, but risk location stays the same.
Best trades
Excellent long catch at HTF levels with volume cues and a failed vwap break. Nice adds as we kept going, was a solid win +14.8R total risk 86$ p/l +211$. Sold half really early on new HOD break. Maybe couldve held on for a better move but notes say market was dumping during this long. Better safe than sorry.
Another dip buy on a failed breakdown into HTF level for starter. Adds were right on top of it as it kept pushing up for me. Took profits where I should, exited the rest where I should. Solid trade. +5.2R +170$ risk 98$
DDOG best RR scenario and win this week. BIG regrets not adding to this one as I should have and couldve gotten huge (to me) with very little risk. Hidden seller wouldnt go away, that with TL break and HTF level failing to hold above + vwap + tape cues with sellers stepping lower and refresh seller holding it lower was an A+ scenario to really put as much as I want on risking pennies. +8R +405$ risking 50$
Rewatching tape the time I should have added was when it came back to retest seller, faded off sharply on more selling. Bam.
UNH a great case of everything going right. RVOL Daily failure, relative strength, coiling above level, volume and tape cues. Just kept going. Solid adds as well. Only change I could do is one more add after big seller break into hod break. +7.4R + 241$ risking 94$
Work was great because I was able to look past the long losses, flip my bias short for a solid win. Didnt add though and I should have. Was almost the same case as DDOG with the refresh hidden sellers. Could have but didnt. +6.6R +93$ risking 14$
A few commonalities here. The for certain one is tape. I follow the flow.
Another is the usual failed moves, failed range breaks into the HTF levels.
Another is lack of volume on the failed breaks.
Only problems here is not being big enough. Some trades im able to do it, others I cant seem to pull the trigger quick enough. The tape is everything for these adds. If the tape is there I need to push, if its not, let it be.
A few trades I was able to get really big in risking ~125-150 for a move. Sucks to not see it follow through but I think its even better when I can cut them for less than I am risking.
I think if youre trading the right names at the right times, fighting for price and getting good entries, the stock can treat you nice enough to the point you are able to cut it quicker while still respecting the trade.
Bad.
So not everything was nice this week. Compliance slipped up a several time and as always paid for it.
One problem was not getting out fast enough. If my stop area gets skipped over I have this habit of waiting for it to come back to it
Thursday I woke up late, felt rushed to chart, and it showed in my trading. I started taking anything that looked good enough and quickly got in a hole.
Only 2 main issues. Not stopping out fast enough. And settling for lesser trades.
2 easy fixes.
1. Stop out when youre supposed to.
2. Wake up earlier.
All my trades except for Thursday ones were trades I should have and did take.
Final thoughts.
Solid week. Im really happy with the way im trading now. Said it just about everyday this week but im capitalizing on strengths and putting it all together. I spent so long trying to NOT buy dips and catch moves and only stick to breaks, and that was not doing enough of what I am good at. It just feels good to finally feel like im in the right spot.
Im almost positive next week/month ill be somewhere else again. Its how its always been its probably how it always will be. I find more problems, I find more solutions. More strengths more weaknesses.
Goals for next week is to get big. I want to put 200$ down on a trade and see what happens. There were a few this week I could have/ should have gone for it but I didnt. I want to step on the gas.
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