7/28 DRC
Not a thing to do yesterday. No trades. Today looking a little more busy than yesterday. Seeing some bullish signs starting to come back. Maybe a turning point day. Should be the day we see if bulls want to aggressively play this breakout. If not I think were due for some more downside to find value. But until the short side even begins, I need to remain long bias.
Air/cruise lines look like theyre about to breakdown. Getting very tight.
Just looking to trade and follow my rules today. Keep it simple. Not much to think about, just watch and react.
1. Follow Risk plan.
2. Trade only at prev hod/lod, d bo, past zones.
3. Follow SPY
4. Avoid all trades less than 8star favorites.
5. BIG picture. Get in smaller size if 1st entry missed.
ROKU
BA
BYND
PTON
GSX
Market kinda split. Lots of names very strong and popping higher. Others weak and nothing but down.
In the bullish names, they are v aggressive. No chance for pullbacks to get deep enough.
NIO
SPY crashing, NIO to vwap and into HTF zone. Saw lots and lots of buying. Had a strong bounce but I didnt take as market was really weak.
Came back for retest as SPY still very weak. Waiting for any kind of sign of relief.
NIO coiling above all, vol getting weaker. SPY may be seeing a bottom here. Waiting for better price entry.
Never came back.
PTON
market creeping higher. PTON with it, under vwap, just getting back above d bo level. Not best trade yet but waiting to see tape if entry.
Internals and SPY getting strong, just not there yet in PTON.
Very slow and quiet. Hovering around HTF. Edge seems to be on bull case.
Big buy came through and we stepped up and im in.
Couldnt go, had a shot blew it. Waiting for reclaim.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now setting up a bit better with a failure and vol kick.
Tried to get in chasing it up. No fill.
Trying a new hotkey idea to make sure I get in on situations like these. Making my trading faster.
And got in just a bit above where I originally tried too. Still looks good, low vol pullback. + VWAP + TL.
Added as we ripped higher again. Looking for HOD. SPY into vwap good bounce spot, internals confirming weakness. PTON good buying. Seems fine.
Breaking above 66 is 1st step. HOD at 66.90, good vol kick and SPY looks to turn up with inernals.
Decent sized offer at 66. Cant quite make it to him yet. And we broke him but got stuffed lower for a flash. Back and forth here. Couldnt get above, warning signs.
I have minor TL in play to work with. Going to use it as stop if we close under. Seems ready for a deeper pull in. Im pretty big, dont need to take a pretty big loss here.
SPY also tuning lower, internals confirming weakness. Will be a problem.
You can see the sellers coming in and stepping lower with price. I bailed fast. Decent sized loss, but not near as big as it couldve been.
Reset trade again at HTF + vwap + major TL.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After a short reset period, SPY ripped up and PTON failed a breakdown with low vol and I got right back in even bigger with tighter risk. Looking to be right right away so far so good. SPY exploding to new HOD
And PTON not finding any of this strength now. Warning signs.
Coiling around vwap, still above HTF.
Gave me new stop to use. Failed to drop
SPY turning lower just short of new HOD. PTON may have found hidden buy at 65.38. New pivot high im adding.
SPY just kept on trickling lower. PTON not losing it yet. Now internals weak.
And all out.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Had a decent flush with big vol increase lower, But stalled at 65 and no lower. Now after SPY making new pivot low under vwap, ripped harder faster than last time, this time making new HOD in minutes. Bizzare. PTON back at vwap + major TL and just above prev hod. Trade may be back on.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
And here we are again. Broke TL from HOD with vol and curled back to test it and got bought up. Tape is A+ lots of buying getting us back above recent pivots. Looks good for continuation.
And failed on me right away but not stopping me out. New stop to use, Market still up and strong. PTON finding a lot of volume here, not able to get past this .60 area but we should be rolling.
I am all out early. There is refresh selling going on and we cannot get past it with even bigger volume growing. Will be back in above range.
And we got in back above range. Not same size yet. but ok start. SPY still up, internals weakening for 1st time. PTON trending higher but weak. Vol not confirming. May not have it but gotta wait.
Same scenario as all the other trades. We drift higher on what looks like good action, but not really going anywhere. SPY is lifting off though, that is different. Market is strong. PTON making this rising wedge getting really tight, we need a breakout to the upside to stick. If not probably just another long trap.
And finally that is what we got. Praise the lord. Headed to 66 for mid day pivot break. Should see a lot of shorts wanting out now.
Big offer at 66. Got above big vol spike. Market still lifting off.
I think I need to be a bit more conservative with my PT here. We stuffed that break right back lower and had offers show up again at 66. Ill give it another shot to get above and hold it before I decide to take half. 66.20 is a measured move which also connects with prev early day R. Will look to exit half there.
Ripped back above 66 and again offer showed up putting us back under.
Coming back to test it again a 3rd time. SPY and internals flushing lower. Feels like I need out of this sooner than later.
Offers showed up again and we made new micro pivot low. Im all out. Need to be back in again if we see it, but im not seeing it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
And just like that we broke lower back into HTF and major TL and vwap. Found bids and got back in.
And just like that it failed and im out. Was not sized up.
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Building under vwap and major TL from LOD. does not seem like a good time to get in. Only way im in is if I see size on tape buying.
Broke down, saw no selling, and no buying, yet ripped up .30 cents. If long is on ill see it at better lower price later.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ended up rising anyways as SPY was doing nothing. We got above a micro pivot and saw a hidden buyer. I got in in front and added as we stepped up. Expecting to continue higher, stop only a penny.
SPY not helping out but we are refusing to drop this level still. Cant break higher away from it yet though either.
And then we did make a new pivot high. Tape a bit slow, just looking for this to keep rising to 66 to take half.
Didnt follow through, all out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Getting another setup again. Held higher above vcwap for a while now. Came back to it on low volume. 2 TLs in play just under + 200ma + HTF level. Looking for TL test to get back in again. Big triangle, top TL almost in play.
Almost didnt get it until last second. We broke and nothing happened for a few minutes but as we got back above vwap we saw the bids again. Got in and added twice and excellent start so far. Hopefully 'the one.'
Already into Top TL from HOD. 65.80 1st pivot to break then 66.10 for PT. SPY also rising maybe ready for a turn higher.
Stalling out a bit, have to be ok with some loss, but not full loss anymore. Any close under vwap im out. Still a 10star favorite trade as it has been all day.
Vol on up move is nothing special, not breaking pivot. Warning signs again. SPY also failed and internals not making new highs. Only thing is were holding above top TL on each pb to it.
And ofc another big offer shows up and we cant get through. All out in front, small win. Not risking giving it up and not risking holding through, not enough positive signs here other than location.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Broke pivot point, nothing happened. Back down to vwap + new TLS. Maybe something here. Getting harder to buy which usually means were going higher but damn, nothing happening at higher prices and we keep seeing these big offers show up.
Setting up the exact same case. Not taking it this time. I dont see any tape cues. Question is, is there a short here?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Made new pivot high and failed again right back to HTF level. We have a long base here. Last chance to find some dip buys on a failed breakdown and ill be in again.
BYND
Weak name in strong position in strong market. Odd stuff. Big triangles all over, building range under vwap. Looking for failed breakdown into HTF zone to get bought to squeeze all these shorts.
And thats what we got. Great tape and hidden buyer. Added a lot.
And completely failed right away. never seen an A+ setup turn shit so fast.
Tape is very odd. Seeing some huge buys and vol increase, but sellers must be hidden and refreshing. Keeps getting bought every dip, but selling too much. Crashed lower.
Annoying day again. Nothing but 10/9 star favorite setups. No follow up. Nothing. Not a thing. Why? I have no idea. Every trade I took today was
1. Necessary
2. 10 or 9 star favorite setup
3. Correlated with SPY/same side
4. Clear tape cues
5. At great locations
6. Long
7. Most after a failed move the opposite way
I mean this is A+ stuff that usually is killing it for me and just nothing out there.
Im starting to think it means more to what kind of market were in. All those signs in one setup? But it fails? Several times across different stocks? Across the whole market? And were failing things on daily charts?
Maybe bulls are just tired. Things that were once able to rip higher easily are no longer able to. Doesnt mean I should avoid the long, but maybe reduce expectations? Take off more early?
My trades today were all positive at one point. Average was +.8R which really is nothing special. So dont think anything notable there.
I managed risk very well today though. Sized up in all of these and escaped relatively unharmed. I am down 300$ on the day but on all the trades I took, on average if they hit PT the trade was worth +$275 so just one of these 9 trades I took wouldve erased most of the losses.
In total on all PTON trades I risked $1040 on 8 separate trades and lost $181. And all were correct stop outs.
Frustrating to still see myself in this spot. I keep saying one of these times itll eventually work out for me but my god, its taking longer than it ever has before. Im not trading poorly, im doing whats been working for me. If we have to be adaptable as day traders, what do I need to adapt here.
I look around and good moves are still happening out there. The problem for me is that they are coming out of left field, from locations I got no business trading around. The usual rips and dumps I look to capture right at the turning point, do not come from the levels I am looking to take them at. Which really isnt anything new, its just happening a lot more often lately.
Which means my edge is still viable and things do happen from these points still, its just few and far between each one.
Im not convinced that I need to STOP what im doing. I am convinced that I need to be more selective, and that has been what I am doing. I wait for the market to come to me, and whatever happens happens. I stay on same side of SPY and overall trend. I expand my opportunities back to gap stocks with breaking news, still applying my same logic to those markets. Waiting to see what I need to see. And whatever happens, happens. I manage risk well, I stay selective, I enter when I see thesis confirmation, I exit when I see warning signs.
P/L is not reflecting how I am trading. And im not sure I should be upset as I am. The money will come, I know what I do can work in all markets. I trade the market. Not indicators or anything else. I read the flow. And apparently I must not be doing well at it now. Reading false signals, ignoring the other side. It really doesnt feel like it, but maybe I am missing things that are not so obvious.
Will discuss more in monthly review.
Air/cruise lines look like theyre about to breakdown. Getting very tight.
Just looking to trade and follow my rules today. Keep it simple. Not much to think about, just watch and react.
1. Follow Risk plan.
2. Trade only at prev hod/lod, d bo, past zones.
3. Follow SPY
4. Avoid all trades less than 8star favorites.
5. BIG picture. Get in smaller size if 1st entry missed.
ROKU
BA
BYND
PTON
GSX
Market kinda split. Lots of names very strong and popping higher. Others weak and nothing but down.
In the bullish names, they are v aggressive. No chance for pullbacks to get deep enough.
NIO
SPY crashing, NIO to vwap and into HTF zone. Saw lots and lots of buying. Had a strong bounce but I didnt take as market was really weak.
Came back for retest as SPY still very weak. Waiting for any kind of sign of relief.
NIO coiling above all, vol getting weaker. SPY may be seeing a bottom here. Waiting for better price entry.
Never came back.
PTON
market creeping higher. PTON with it, under vwap, just getting back above d bo level. Not best trade yet but waiting to see tape if entry.
Internals and SPY getting strong, just not there yet in PTON.
Very slow and quiet. Hovering around HTF. Edge seems to be on bull case.
Big buy came through and we stepped up and im in.
Couldnt go, had a shot blew it. Waiting for reclaim.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now setting up a bit better with a failure and vol kick.
Tried to get in chasing it up. No fill.
Trying a new hotkey idea to make sure I get in on situations like these. Making my trading faster.
And got in just a bit above where I originally tried too. Still looks good, low vol pullback. + VWAP + TL.
Added as we ripped higher again. Looking for HOD. SPY into vwap good bounce spot, internals confirming weakness. PTON good buying. Seems fine.
Breaking above 66 is 1st step. HOD at 66.90, good vol kick and SPY looks to turn up with inernals.
Decent sized offer at 66. Cant quite make it to him yet. And we broke him but got stuffed lower for a flash. Back and forth here. Couldnt get above, warning signs.
I have minor TL in play to work with. Going to use it as stop if we close under. Seems ready for a deeper pull in. Im pretty big, dont need to take a pretty big loss here.
SPY also tuning lower, internals confirming weakness. Will be a problem.
You can see the sellers coming in and stepping lower with price. I bailed fast. Decent sized loss, but not near as big as it couldve been.
Reset trade again at HTF + vwap + major TL.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After a short reset period, SPY ripped up and PTON failed a breakdown with low vol and I got right back in even bigger with tighter risk. Looking to be right right away so far so good. SPY exploding to new HOD
And PTON not finding any of this strength now. Warning signs.
Coiling around vwap, still above HTF.
Gave me new stop to use. Failed to drop
SPY turning lower just short of new HOD. PTON may have found hidden buy at 65.38. New pivot high im adding.
SPY just kept on trickling lower. PTON not losing it yet. Now internals weak.
And all out.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Had a decent flush with big vol increase lower, But stalled at 65 and no lower. Now after SPY making new pivot low under vwap, ripped harder faster than last time, this time making new HOD in minutes. Bizzare. PTON back at vwap + major TL and just above prev hod. Trade may be back on.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
And here we are again. Broke TL from HOD with vol and curled back to test it and got bought up. Tape is A+ lots of buying getting us back above recent pivots. Looks good for continuation.
And failed on me right away but not stopping me out. New stop to use, Market still up and strong. PTON finding a lot of volume here, not able to get past this .60 area but we should be rolling.
I am all out early. There is refresh selling going on and we cannot get past it with even bigger volume growing. Will be back in above range.
And we got in back above range. Not same size yet. but ok start. SPY still up, internals weakening for 1st time. PTON trending higher but weak. Vol not confirming. May not have it but gotta wait.
Same scenario as all the other trades. We drift higher on what looks like good action, but not really going anywhere. SPY is lifting off though, that is different. Market is strong. PTON making this rising wedge getting really tight, we need a breakout to the upside to stick. If not probably just another long trap.
And finally that is what we got. Praise the lord. Headed to 66 for mid day pivot break. Should see a lot of shorts wanting out now.
Big offer at 66. Got above big vol spike. Market still lifting off.
I think I need to be a bit more conservative with my PT here. We stuffed that break right back lower and had offers show up again at 66. Ill give it another shot to get above and hold it before I decide to take half. 66.20 is a measured move which also connects with prev early day R. Will look to exit half there.
Ripped back above 66 and again offer showed up putting us back under.
Coming back to test it again a 3rd time. SPY and internals flushing lower. Feels like I need out of this sooner than later.
Offers showed up again and we made new micro pivot low. Im all out. Need to be back in again if we see it, but im not seeing it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
And just like that we broke lower back into HTF and major TL and vwap. Found bids and got back in.
And just like that it failed and im out. Was not sized up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Building under vwap and major TL from LOD. does not seem like a good time to get in. Only way im in is if I see size on tape buying.
Broke down, saw no selling, and no buying, yet ripped up .30 cents. If long is on ill see it at better lower price later.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ended up rising anyways as SPY was doing nothing. We got above a micro pivot and saw a hidden buyer. I got in in front and added as we stepped up. Expecting to continue higher, stop only a penny.
SPY not helping out but we are refusing to drop this level still. Cant break higher away from it yet though either.
And then we did make a new pivot high. Tape a bit slow, just looking for this to keep rising to 66 to take half.
Didnt follow through, all out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Getting another setup again. Held higher above vcwap for a while now. Came back to it on low volume. 2 TLs in play just under + 200ma + HTF level. Looking for TL test to get back in again. Big triangle, top TL almost in play.
Almost didnt get it until last second. We broke and nothing happened for a few minutes but as we got back above vwap we saw the bids again. Got in and added twice and excellent start so far. Hopefully 'the one.'
Already into Top TL from HOD. 65.80 1st pivot to break then 66.10 for PT. SPY also rising maybe ready for a turn higher.
Stalling out a bit, have to be ok with some loss, but not full loss anymore. Any close under vwap im out. Still a 10star favorite trade as it has been all day.
Vol on up move is nothing special, not breaking pivot. Warning signs again. SPY also failed and internals not making new highs. Only thing is were holding above top TL on each pb to it.
And ofc another big offer shows up and we cant get through. All out in front, small win. Not risking giving it up and not risking holding through, not enough positive signs here other than location.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Broke pivot point, nothing happened. Back down to vwap + new TLS. Maybe something here. Getting harder to buy which usually means were going higher but damn, nothing happening at higher prices and we keep seeing these big offers show up.
Setting up the exact same case. Not taking it this time. I dont see any tape cues. Question is, is there a short here?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Made new pivot high and failed again right back to HTF level. We have a long base here. Last chance to find some dip buys on a failed breakdown and ill be in again.
BYND
Weak name in strong position in strong market. Odd stuff. Big triangles all over, building range under vwap. Looking for failed breakdown into HTF zone to get bought to squeeze all these shorts.
And thats what we got. Great tape and hidden buyer. Added a lot.
And completely failed right away. never seen an A+ setup turn shit so fast.
Tape is very odd. Seeing some huge buys and vol increase, but sellers must be hidden and refreshing. Keeps getting bought every dip, but selling too much. Crashed lower.
Annoying day again. Nothing but 10/9 star favorite setups. No follow up. Nothing. Not a thing. Why? I have no idea. Every trade I took today was
1. Necessary
2. 10 or 9 star favorite setup
3. Correlated with SPY/same side
4. Clear tape cues
5. At great locations
6. Long
7. Most after a failed move the opposite way
I mean this is A+ stuff that usually is killing it for me and just nothing out there.
Im starting to think it means more to what kind of market were in. All those signs in one setup? But it fails? Several times across different stocks? Across the whole market? And were failing things on daily charts?
Maybe bulls are just tired. Things that were once able to rip higher easily are no longer able to. Doesnt mean I should avoid the long, but maybe reduce expectations? Take off more early?
My trades today were all positive at one point. Average was +.8R which really is nothing special. So dont think anything notable there.
I managed risk very well today though. Sized up in all of these and escaped relatively unharmed. I am down 300$ on the day but on all the trades I took, on average if they hit PT the trade was worth +$275 so just one of these 9 trades I took wouldve erased most of the losses.
In total on all PTON trades I risked $1040 on 8 separate trades and lost $181. And all were correct stop outs.
Frustrating to still see myself in this spot. I keep saying one of these times itll eventually work out for me but my god, its taking longer than it ever has before. Im not trading poorly, im doing whats been working for me. If we have to be adaptable as day traders, what do I need to adapt here.
I look around and good moves are still happening out there. The problem for me is that they are coming out of left field, from locations I got no business trading around. The usual rips and dumps I look to capture right at the turning point, do not come from the levels I am looking to take them at. Which really isnt anything new, its just happening a lot more often lately.
Which means my edge is still viable and things do happen from these points still, its just few and far between each one.
Im not convinced that I need to STOP what im doing. I am convinced that I need to be more selective, and that has been what I am doing. I wait for the market to come to me, and whatever happens happens. I stay on same side of SPY and overall trend. I expand my opportunities back to gap stocks with breaking news, still applying my same logic to those markets. Waiting to see what I need to see. And whatever happens, happens. I manage risk well, I stay selective, I enter when I see thesis confirmation, I exit when I see warning signs.
P/L is not reflecting how I am trading. And im not sure I should be upset as I am. The money will come, I know what I do can work in all markets. I trade the market. Not indicators or anything else. I read the flow. And apparently I must not be doing well at it now. Reading false signals, ignoring the other side. It really doesnt feel like it, but maybe I am missing things that are not so obvious.
Will discuss more in monthly review.
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