July 24 Weekly Review
I could not get a grip this week. No clue whats going on, things arent making sense. My performance is awful and its not from me trading poorly, my shit just does not work right now.
Slow week. Unexpectedly slow too. SPY broke higher from big range and TL and we didnt find any acceleration higher. (whose left to buy?). So telling me we may be ready for a deeper pullback.
Later in the week we did get the big sell off telling me the breakout has failed and we may want deeper pullbacks. Expected more selling on friday but never came around until late afternoon. And even then it was nothing significant.
But with regards to my trading, it was also pretty rangy and back and forth. Things are slowing down and there isnt much to trade as there was last couple of weeks. Less opportunity. The big thing I am seeing is my trades correlation to SPY. If SPY is not a trending up and strong, my stock that I want long is not going to be either. Unless I am looking at high rvol stock or its already been doing its own thing all day, it is important to be on the same side.
VIX slowly going lower back to under 20, which usually means less overall volatility especially in the indices. This means if I am going to be trading these lower vol stocks, im going to have to be on the same side as the market. Basically I need to remind myself of some rules
1. If market not trending
-Trades with low vol/rvol must be taken move2move and as market is also moving same direction
-Trades with high vol/rvol or if PA has not been respecting SPY regardless what its doing, then trade as normal.
2. If market trending
-All trades must follow that trend
Wasnt a problem this week. In fact a few of my trades just got wrecked from SPY faking me out. We would fail weakness, show strength, and id be long, then fail the strength roll over even harder and id get stopped out in my trade. It sucks to see, but part of the game.
Internals killing me giving me false cues then match, then fail, and match again. Everyday I was seeing fake moves both directions. Youd get cues of failure for one direction, would start to roll over, come up one more time, confirm the direction that it wasnt failing with internals confirming, and then it would fail. Things just tossing me around.
Im not 100% sure there really is anything to do about this. Im already trading less, sticking to my edge, not fighting anything. I suppose during times like these, the market just doesnt want me to win. It wants me to sit on my hand all day then take that 1 trade that will make my week. And I have to be there for it and ready. Lower vol = less opportunity.
Im going to have to start getting more aggressive with my orders. Too many times this week I lost out on 1000$ trades because my initial order would not get filled. Price would then leave too fast too far as it should and id be SOL. I usually go split limit and get in that way. Im going to have to start shaving a few pennies off the bid rather than go for the middle. I have to get in these trades it is destroying me not getting in with high RR.
I also need to remember to play off of zones as well than just strict levels. Some cases a stock has a nice tight zone to trade off of from past action that can form a solid setup as well.
This was the 1st week in a long time I have been this angry at the market. I play my game well, I take what I can get and I follow my rules. But this week I was getting annoyed everyday about how confusing things were at times. That the market that used to give me so much to do everyday, was now giving me nothing to work with.
If I am meant to sit on my hands then so be it. It just sucks that this month I was really excited to start trading bigger and follow up on my best, only to see the environment totally shift on me and now cant get the ball rolling.
Must play the game I am given. Im not going to change anything im doing, I know where I make mistakes, and I know where I need to be excelling. Ill continue the same process this next week that I did this week and if I have 2 trades a day everyday then so be it. Thats how I need to trade.
NUMBERS
-$718
11/46 24% WR
94% Compliance
-12R
9 breakeven. 10 full -1R, 7 more than -1R
Avg win +$51
Avg loss -$42
Avg risk taken on W $45
Avg risk taken on L $54
Shares traded 17k compared to 29k last week.
Avg win dropped and avg loss rose. Part of changing my size and getting bigger in my best. This is on a bad week too. On a good week where things are moving I imagine it will look a lot nice.
These numbers should be bigger. On average risk taken, because I am trading bigger.
Is there anything I can do to improve avg win/loss and risk? Not really. Took the same kind of trades I have been and intended too. This week didnt have many winners for me.
I guess you could look at it as I did lose less money relative to size. Last week I lost 700 trading smaller, this week I lost 700 trading bigger.
Compliance was high. #trades taken not even half of last week so I know im not settling for anything. The market was not my friend this week.
Not a single +3R trade this week. Some reached that point, but never stayed there.
One thing I do want to look it is my avg risk on better rated setups. And I do have a column for that.
May be a little hard to see. And excuse all the red its been a hard month. But the numbers are in white over on the right. Avg risk taken for my best setups is NOT in line with what they need to be. Numbers are a bit skewed because I only started tracking favorites this last week and a half.
On a side note, 8star setups are wrecking me. Should probably stop taking those.
But for THIS week, my avg risk taken on 10star + fav was $75. Which is RIGHT where it should be. Id give you the numbers for wins, but I didnt have one.
9star + fav for wins was at $56, should be a higher BUT, I now run into problems with max BP. Sometimes I cant get any bigger. I am exploring options.
9star + fav for losses at $75. Only 2 but fine.
And the non favs.
10 W $20
10 L $46
This is not good. Thats a big difference here that of course, makes a big difference in my overall stats.
9 W $54
9 L $41
This ones good, Numbers should be closer for consistency purposes. I obviously dont know if its going to be a win or loss when I get in the first time.
And 8 star. All losses at $40.
The goal looks like this. For each rating, this is what I want to be risking on avg.
10 star + fav at $75
10 star at $65
9 star + fav at $65
9 star at $50
8 star at <$50
Each of these are based on my trades as a whole. I get my starter which is the biggest, and add more size with smaller risk to each as they work in my favor. So while I start at 75 on 10 star setups, Ill add 50 and another 50. If it was 10 star + fav, I start with 75, add 75, add 75.
GOOD THINGS
I mean its really hard to look at this week and tell myself I messed up and did a bad job. I really did not do a bad job. I fixed majority of my problems. Compliance up to 94% highest on the year. I traded where and how I said I would. It was not my week to make money. It flat out was not there for me.
And thats ok. Thats what I have to live with and will continue to have to live with as a trader. Things slow down, they dont trend forever. There isnt great opportunity every single day. It is what it is. Let it be. Continue to work on sizing and getting big in my best and eventually the market will reward me.
I know what I do works. But nothing is 100%
PROBLEMS
For the most part I sized up appropriately. Got bigger on the better setups and as big as I could on favorite + 10 star.
Swinging for the fences. Im getting a bit eager to find a trade to size up on. Gotta make sure that not only is at at a HTF level, but given intraday context, it isnt too early. Some cases the stock is due for a deeper pullback before it wants to move up again. I got in ahead of that deep pullback when it had been extended away from vwap for some time. Stocks need a breath.
Not getting filled. I missed a lot of really good entries due to no fill. I still cant predict when this happens or when it wont. In these lesser vol names, im going to have to deal with not splitting, and just taking a few cents off the offer or bid. Of course its nice to save more, but more often than not I would rather be in than skim a few pennies.
Trading with SPY. Im trading these lower volume names which is fine, but I need to remember that SPY will influence it more. In this environment of slow choppy action it is a must.
SOLUTIONS
Trade only 9/10 star trades and 8star favorites. The 8 star stats are clearly not working for me. Dont settle. Its ok if it goes and youre not in, probability tells me its not worth it.
Stay more consistent with size.
10 star + fav at $75
10 star at $65
9 star + fav at $65
9 star at $50
8 star at <$50
With lower volume names, dont go for the split, try and shave a few pennies off the inside to ensure higher probability of getting filled.
On low volatility days, which seems like thats what we will be in for the moment, make sure to be on same side as SPY.
GOALS FROM LAST WEEK
Wr >40%. Never set a WR goal before, but clearly need to be taking better HPB setups to get back to the norm.
-Did not get there. Surprised too. Just how the week was. Cant force this. All I can control is the trades I take. When I get in and when I get out.
Get better/faster with determining risk before trade happens. Find Star rating quicker.
-Much better with this. Now just need to apply the size correctly.
Dont size up on any trades that are not at my best HTF locations.
-Did well with this too.
Compliance >90%
-Goal achieved. Didnt make a difference for p/l though.
GOALS
Correct Avg risk per star rating. Next week will be end of the month so will do a quick check on the week to make sure im where im supposed to be.
Only take 8 star trades that are favorites. All other 8 just avoid.
All trade locations at prev hod/lod, D bo levels, or significant past zones.
Didnt get 1st entry? Take trade with less size, look to add later on pullbacks.
Lower volatile names require me to trade with SPY. Dont fight market conditions on those names.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Get back to work. Numbers not great, performance was pretty good. Sometimes not meant to make money. Keep on keeping on.
Slow week. Unexpectedly slow too. SPY broke higher from big range and TL and we didnt find any acceleration higher. (whose left to buy?). So telling me we may be ready for a deeper pullback.
Later in the week we did get the big sell off telling me the breakout has failed and we may want deeper pullbacks. Expected more selling on friday but never came around until late afternoon. And even then it was nothing significant.
But with regards to my trading, it was also pretty rangy and back and forth. Things are slowing down and there isnt much to trade as there was last couple of weeks. Less opportunity. The big thing I am seeing is my trades correlation to SPY. If SPY is not a trending up and strong, my stock that I want long is not going to be either. Unless I am looking at high rvol stock or its already been doing its own thing all day, it is important to be on the same side.
VIX slowly going lower back to under 20, which usually means less overall volatility especially in the indices. This means if I am going to be trading these lower vol stocks, im going to have to be on the same side as the market. Basically I need to remind myself of some rules
1. If market not trending
-Trades with low vol/rvol must be taken move2move and as market is also moving same direction
-Trades with high vol/rvol or if PA has not been respecting SPY regardless what its doing, then trade as normal.
2. If market trending
-All trades must follow that trend
Wasnt a problem this week. In fact a few of my trades just got wrecked from SPY faking me out. We would fail weakness, show strength, and id be long, then fail the strength roll over even harder and id get stopped out in my trade. It sucks to see, but part of the game.
Internals killing me giving me false cues then match, then fail, and match again. Everyday I was seeing fake moves both directions. Youd get cues of failure for one direction, would start to roll over, come up one more time, confirm the direction that it wasnt failing with internals confirming, and then it would fail. Things just tossing me around.
Im not 100% sure there really is anything to do about this. Im already trading less, sticking to my edge, not fighting anything. I suppose during times like these, the market just doesnt want me to win. It wants me to sit on my hand all day then take that 1 trade that will make my week. And I have to be there for it and ready. Lower vol = less opportunity.
Im going to have to start getting more aggressive with my orders. Too many times this week I lost out on 1000$ trades because my initial order would not get filled. Price would then leave too fast too far as it should and id be SOL. I usually go split limit and get in that way. Im going to have to start shaving a few pennies off the bid rather than go for the middle. I have to get in these trades it is destroying me not getting in with high RR.
I also need to remember to play off of zones as well than just strict levels. Some cases a stock has a nice tight zone to trade off of from past action that can form a solid setup as well.
This was the 1st week in a long time I have been this angry at the market. I play my game well, I take what I can get and I follow my rules. But this week I was getting annoyed everyday about how confusing things were at times. That the market that used to give me so much to do everyday, was now giving me nothing to work with.
If I am meant to sit on my hands then so be it. It just sucks that this month I was really excited to start trading bigger and follow up on my best, only to see the environment totally shift on me and now cant get the ball rolling.
Must play the game I am given. Im not going to change anything im doing, I know where I make mistakes, and I know where I need to be excelling. Ill continue the same process this next week that I did this week and if I have 2 trades a day everyday then so be it. Thats how I need to trade.
NUMBERS
-$718
11/46 24% WR
94% Compliance
-12R
9 breakeven. 10 full -1R, 7 more than -1R
Avg win +$51
Avg loss -$42
Avg risk taken on W $45
Avg risk taken on L $54
Shares traded 17k compared to 29k last week.
Avg win dropped and avg loss rose. Part of changing my size and getting bigger in my best. This is on a bad week too. On a good week where things are moving I imagine it will look a lot nice.
These numbers should be bigger. On average risk taken, because I am trading bigger.
Is there anything I can do to improve avg win/loss and risk? Not really. Took the same kind of trades I have been and intended too. This week didnt have many winners for me.
I guess you could look at it as I did lose less money relative to size. Last week I lost 700 trading smaller, this week I lost 700 trading bigger.
Compliance was high. #trades taken not even half of last week so I know im not settling for anything. The market was not my friend this week.
Not a single +3R trade this week. Some reached that point, but never stayed there.
One thing I do want to look it is my avg risk on better rated setups. And I do have a column for that.
May be a little hard to see. And excuse all the red its been a hard month. But the numbers are in white over on the right. Avg risk taken for my best setups is NOT in line with what they need to be. Numbers are a bit skewed because I only started tracking favorites this last week and a half.
On a side note, 8star setups are wrecking me. Should probably stop taking those.
But for THIS week, my avg risk taken on 10star + fav was $75. Which is RIGHT where it should be. Id give you the numbers for wins, but I didnt have one.
9star + fav for wins was at $56, should be a higher BUT, I now run into problems with max BP. Sometimes I cant get any bigger. I am exploring options.
9star + fav for losses at $75. Only 2 but fine.
And the non favs.
10 W $20
10 L $46
This is not good. Thats a big difference here that of course, makes a big difference in my overall stats.
9 W $54
9 L $41
This ones good, Numbers should be closer for consistency purposes. I obviously dont know if its going to be a win or loss when I get in the first time.
And 8 star. All losses at $40.
The goal looks like this. For each rating, this is what I want to be risking on avg.
10 star + fav at $75
10 star at $65
9 star + fav at $65
9 star at $50
8 star at <$50
Each of these are based on my trades as a whole. I get my starter which is the biggest, and add more size with smaller risk to each as they work in my favor. So while I start at 75 on 10 star setups, Ill add 50 and another 50. If it was 10 star + fav, I start with 75, add 75, add 75.
GOOD THINGS
I mean its really hard to look at this week and tell myself I messed up and did a bad job. I really did not do a bad job. I fixed majority of my problems. Compliance up to 94% highest on the year. I traded where and how I said I would. It was not my week to make money. It flat out was not there for me.
And thats ok. Thats what I have to live with and will continue to have to live with as a trader. Things slow down, they dont trend forever. There isnt great opportunity every single day. It is what it is. Let it be. Continue to work on sizing and getting big in my best and eventually the market will reward me.
I know what I do works. But nothing is 100%
PROBLEMS
For the most part I sized up appropriately. Got bigger on the better setups and as big as I could on favorite + 10 star.
Swinging for the fences. Im getting a bit eager to find a trade to size up on. Gotta make sure that not only is at at a HTF level, but given intraday context, it isnt too early. Some cases the stock is due for a deeper pullback before it wants to move up again. I got in ahead of that deep pullback when it had been extended away from vwap for some time. Stocks need a breath.
Not getting filled. I missed a lot of really good entries due to no fill. I still cant predict when this happens or when it wont. In these lesser vol names, im going to have to deal with not splitting, and just taking a few cents off the offer or bid. Of course its nice to save more, but more often than not I would rather be in than skim a few pennies.
Trading with SPY. Im trading these lower volume names which is fine, but I need to remember that SPY will influence it more. In this environment of slow choppy action it is a must.
SOLUTIONS
Trade only 9/10 star trades and 8star favorites. The 8 star stats are clearly not working for me. Dont settle. Its ok if it goes and youre not in, probability tells me its not worth it.
Stay more consistent with size.
10 star + fav at $75
10 star at $65
9 star + fav at $65
9 star at $50
8 star at <$50
With lower volume names, dont go for the split, try and shave a few pennies off the inside to ensure higher probability of getting filled.
On low volatility days, which seems like thats what we will be in for the moment, make sure to be on same side as SPY.
GOALS FROM LAST WEEK
Wr >40%. Never set a WR goal before, but clearly need to be taking better HPB setups to get back to the norm.
-Did not get there. Surprised too. Just how the week was. Cant force this. All I can control is the trades I take. When I get in and when I get out.
Get better/faster with determining risk before trade happens. Find Star rating quicker.
-Much better with this. Now just need to apply the size correctly.
Dont size up on any trades that are not at my best HTF locations.
-Did well with this too.
Compliance >90%
-Goal achieved. Didnt make a difference for p/l though.
GOALS
Correct Avg risk per star rating. Next week will be end of the month so will do a quick check on the week to make sure im where im supposed to be.
Only take 8 star trades that are favorites. All other 8 just avoid.
All trade locations at prev hod/lod, D bo levels, or significant past zones.
Didnt get 1st entry? Take trade with less size, look to add later on pullbacks.
Lower volatile names require me to trade with SPY. Dont fight market conditions on those names.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Get back to work. Numbers not great, performance was pretty good. Sometimes not meant to make money. Keep on keeping on.
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