7/24 DRC
The short is on. The failure has followed through and lots of names ready for a long way down pullback. Got some good ones out there, some making moves already. Names im watching basing right at levels I want to be short from so looks like a busy morning ahead.
Yesterday there just wasnt much for me to do. Probably why its been so hard to find a good long in this low vol environment. Now things picking up to the downside. Usually I have a problem with days like these where we gap down too far and im stuck waiting too long for a good short, but today we gapped and got right to levels without losing them yet.
Need to make sure im staying on my game. Just trade like I have been and the market will either give it to me or not.
1. Only trading off of prev hod/lod or breakout levels. Significant past zones are also included now.
2. Stay aggressive. Find star rating asap to know risk plan.
3. Re enter when necessary, dont forget big picture ideas. If 1st entry missed, scale down, enter.
SPY
QQQ
MSFT
ROKU
LULU
WMT
CAKE
LULU
Weak open, pulled back to vwap and prev lod and saw dead action. Ticked lower got in. Fav but not 10 star.
SPY the same, we pulled up, drifting lower again, may want higher or consolidate a bit.
Added as we were ticking lower. SPY popped up and stopped out.
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We turned lower as did SPY and I got back in.
Added as we broke under a bigger bid. 9star now and a bit bigger. SPY not flushing yet.
No go again and stopped out.
SPY looking weak, internals are not confirming weakness. Must be patient.
This market is not weak yet. Internals are trending higher, looks like a buy the dip scenario at the moment but we still have important spots in the indices to reclaim.
Now showing 1st sign of failure to get higher. Maybe making new lows soon.
1st Divergence. SPY new hod, internals not. Now split. One did, other didnt.
2nd divergence. SPY hit prev lod, internals not popping now. Internals have still not made a new low.
Now SPY made new high and internals followed.
And of course thats when the SPY decides to dump a point back to vwap.
VXX
SPY had that nice drop, coming back up on low vol. VXX doing same, headed lower with low vol. Looking for buying at prev hod.
Got great tape cues. Internals not rising anymore, SPY still v low vol headed into prev lod again. We look good
Just cant do it. Stopped out.
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Later in day as SPY was failing to hold higher and started seeing good weakness, VXX back above prev hod and looking for weakness to continue for a long on volatility.
Internals are split at the moment. Stars are not quiet aligning yet. Must be patient for best case here.
Internals seem to be getting stronger as SPY is under vwap. Until internals confirm I dont really want to make a market play. I may be stuck waiting on pb but that is fine.
SPY making a move lower here completely disconnected from internals which are not dropping at all. Still feel like this is a short trap.
SPY made new highs above vwap, internals did not. Might be cues here. Internals did not make new lows.
Time passed, internals now making new lows and SPY curling lower. Going to have to wait for pb, not thrilled yet.
Decent rise in VXX and drop in SPY. Internals confirming but already slowing down. Will wait on pb to see if theres more
UNH
relative weakness all day. Just not popping up breaking from trendline with low vol. Maybe short here.
Made nice range under vwap, got above, failed hard and rolled over huge stuff candle. I wanted in. Skipped order. Need a pb.
Small pb, small size entry. Want to add more higher up at original wanted entry.
SPY still holding up, internals now downtrending looking weaker than they have all day.
No luck, skipped another order I tried to get in and dumped lower. Broke TL but vol is very low on this move lower and were seeing buying here. Warning signs.
SPY tested under prev lod, got back above wit internals now split. Might fail and head lower again. Not convinced it will hold higher yet. UNH pulled up a bit too. Not to a spot I want to add. There is good TL higher up to work with if I get the chance.
UNH came up to entry again. TL is right on top of stop.
Rejected good again and dropped lower. pull up was on just as low of vol. SPY also rolling lower. Looks good. Added again.
SPY broke lower again. Internals still dropping. Looking to get bigger. Dropping without a chance. Couple of bottom TLs now in play. Still looking for LOD break.
Then internals and SPY ripped higher. UNH followed but on v v v low volume. Got in added again and SPY rejected and dropped lower again. Added again with new stop.
HTF charts are gettin real tight, MAs super tight with edge to downside.
And we started dropping I added again. Stop is near breakeven.
Dropped into bottom TLs while SPY and internals not weak atm. Vol increasing in UNH though and we made new pivot low. Some selling here.
HTF charts 5/10/15 min beautiful.
Stop now breakeven. No need for this to reverse and be a loser. Unless SPY follows through with what its doing. Internals popping up again and SPY back above mini range. UNH holding lower for the moment.
And good SPY rolling over lower with internals lower too. UNH starting another leg lower maybe. There seems to be good buying here in UNH but we are not moving higher. Need to hold this.
Internals dropping with SPY again. Now into TL and vwap, maybe a bounce there. UNH did pop up, now also rolling lower. Should be the move here. Top TL close almost in play.
Gave me new tight stop to work with. Will exit small win if broke above, look to get right back in on failure. SPY now popping higher. with internals. And all out breakeven.
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SPY just lost it. UNH I top ticked out. Never went a penny higher. Only thing that moved up was bid/offer no trades actually took place. I cant get back in yet.
Made it back to top TL and broke higher with some vol as SPY was losing it. now relative strength I guess. Mybe something back at vwap. Now combined with HTF
Made a move to vwap and broke above mini range as SPY did. Currently rejecting, volume v low. Waiting for better tape cues. Might not be re entry.
Good intial rejection. Some selling, nothing big. SPY now breaking above vwap after building under. UNH following.
SPY had nice drop and UNH actually rose higher. Making nice range under 301, waiting to see if break above rejected for re entry.
And we got it and nice rejection. Got in fairly big as RR is tight. SPY still on the downside.
Did not last long. SPY started ripping up and UNH followed. Out
Broke above TLs on v light vol, SPY is ripping back up, if it can stall short may be here again.
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VWAP is right on top of HTF level. Going to have to wait and see it tested. Looks like it should as SPY is popping with internals here.
And then flash crash. No way in.
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Still didnt make LOD even with SPY selloff. Now we have huge base to work with. Still looking for shorts around vwap.
And we got to vwap. Big offer sat there, taken out and nothing happening above. Got back under and hovering around now. SPY is trending up. Doesnt seem to be getting weak so not sure theres going to be a short here. If anything looking squeezey.
Taking a chance on that squeeze. We keep pulling into low .20s and seeing buying. SPY still up and strong and I am long looking for a good squeeze. Lots of built up trades around here and tape looks good. Market also up and helping.
Wrong right away but hasnt got me out yet. SPY sideways and were still seeing bids here holding us up. Starting to step higher again after vwap HTF test. Might see something soon in SPY as well.
Curled up again on its own. Tape got speedy. There is a vol increase getting us up here. Waiting for it. SPY starting to curl with volume too. If we can get above 301.75 that is the pivot I think well see some shorts hurting.
Have good MA support here. HTF MAs will need time to catch up. This trade needs to be going. Stop reduced.
Took a look at healthcare sector, also ripping higher. Its a problem we are slowing down right now. Not seeing good vol on upside anymore. Stepping and basing higher, but not a lot of gas behind this move.
Dips still being bought. Good tape action. SPY new high. UNH followed.
I have a parallel TL that I can use as over extension if we do such action nearby. Will see.
SPY starting to turn lower, internals not making HHs, UNH pulling down a bit seeing some good selling. Close under entry im out. in at .40, .40 is also a good intraday top that we should hold.
Internals losing it, rolling over hard. All I can hope is they stop before UNH gets low enough.
SPY lost it hard back to vwap. UNH back at entry. TL from pivot low is in play as support. Giving me v nice stop to work with if we hold here.
Lucky me, it held, will use as new stop.
New leg up alongside SPY. Break above recent pivot into 302 break is what I want for half out. Will also be into TL.
5 and 15 min chart are great looking. Bullish candles with volume. Above all MAs. 302 break should be good.
Another new stop to work with as it pbd to trendline. 5min holding high and tight. Inside candle, outside candle, inside candle, now looking to see an outside on new leg up.
SPY and internals failing dropping.
Good news is is upticks on SPY seem to have a lot more effect on UNH than downticks. Bad news is theres a lot more down than up.
Another inside on 5 min. MA did catch up. SPY flush lower back to vwap with internals. All these shorts are taking these dips lower as chance to get out still.
Too damn bad. SPY lost it so did UNH. Another testament to if I trade these low vol, gotta be on same side as SPY
Done for the day. Another mess. Working on weekly.
Yesterday there just wasnt much for me to do. Probably why its been so hard to find a good long in this low vol environment. Now things picking up to the downside. Usually I have a problem with days like these where we gap down too far and im stuck waiting too long for a good short, but today we gapped and got right to levels without losing them yet.
Need to make sure im staying on my game. Just trade like I have been and the market will either give it to me or not.
1. Only trading off of prev hod/lod or breakout levels. Significant past zones are also included now.
2. Stay aggressive. Find star rating asap to know risk plan.
3. Re enter when necessary, dont forget big picture ideas. If 1st entry missed, scale down, enter.
SPY
QQQ
MSFT
ROKU
LULU
WMT
CAKE
LULU
Weak open, pulled back to vwap and prev lod and saw dead action. Ticked lower got in. Fav but not 10 star.
SPY the same, we pulled up, drifting lower again, may want higher or consolidate a bit.
Added as we were ticking lower. SPY popped up and stopped out.
---------------------------------------
We turned lower as did SPY and I got back in.
Added as we broke under a bigger bid. 9star now and a bit bigger. SPY not flushing yet.
No go again and stopped out.
SPY looking weak, internals are not confirming weakness. Must be patient.
This market is not weak yet. Internals are trending higher, looks like a buy the dip scenario at the moment but we still have important spots in the indices to reclaim.
Now showing 1st sign of failure to get higher. Maybe making new lows soon.
1st Divergence. SPY new hod, internals not. Now split. One did, other didnt.
2nd divergence. SPY hit prev lod, internals not popping now. Internals have still not made a new low.
Now SPY made new high and internals followed.
And of course thats when the SPY decides to dump a point back to vwap.
VXX
SPY had that nice drop, coming back up on low vol. VXX doing same, headed lower with low vol. Looking for buying at prev hod.
Got great tape cues. Internals not rising anymore, SPY still v low vol headed into prev lod again. We look good
Just cant do it. Stopped out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Later in day as SPY was failing to hold higher and started seeing good weakness, VXX back above prev hod and looking for weakness to continue for a long on volatility.
Internals are split at the moment. Stars are not quiet aligning yet. Must be patient for best case here.
Internals seem to be getting stronger as SPY is under vwap. Until internals confirm I dont really want to make a market play. I may be stuck waiting on pb but that is fine.
SPY making a move lower here completely disconnected from internals which are not dropping at all. Still feel like this is a short trap.
SPY made new highs above vwap, internals did not. Might be cues here. Internals did not make new lows.
Time passed, internals now making new lows and SPY curling lower. Going to have to wait for pb, not thrilled yet.
Decent rise in VXX and drop in SPY. Internals confirming but already slowing down. Will wait on pb to see if theres more
UNH
relative weakness all day. Just not popping up breaking from trendline with low vol. Maybe short here.
Made nice range under vwap, got above, failed hard and rolled over huge stuff candle. I wanted in. Skipped order. Need a pb.
Small pb, small size entry. Want to add more higher up at original wanted entry.
SPY still holding up, internals now downtrending looking weaker than they have all day.
No luck, skipped another order I tried to get in and dumped lower. Broke TL but vol is very low on this move lower and were seeing buying here. Warning signs.
SPY tested under prev lod, got back above wit internals now split. Might fail and head lower again. Not convinced it will hold higher yet. UNH pulled up a bit too. Not to a spot I want to add. There is good TL higher up to work with if I get the chance.
UNH came up to entry again. TL is right on top of stop.
Rejected good again and dropped lower. pull up was on just as low of vol. SPY also rolling lower. Looks good. Added again.
SPY broke lower again. Internals still dropping. Looking to get bigger. Dropping without a chance. Couple of bottom TLs now in play. Still looking for LOD break.
Then internals and SPY ripped higher. UNH followed but on v v v low volume. Got in added again and SPY rejected and dropped lower again. Added again with new stop.
HTF charts are gettin real tight, MAs super tight with edge to downside.
And we started dropping I added again. Stop is near breakeven.
Dropped into bottom TLs while SPY and internals not weak atm. Vol increasing in UNH though and we made new pivot low. Some selling here.
HTF charts 5/10/15 min beautiful.
Stop now breakeven. No need for this to reverse and be a loser. Unless SPY follows through with what its doing. Internals popping up again and SPY back above mini range. UNH holding lower for the moment.
And good SPY rolling over lower with internals lower too. UNH starting another leg lower maybe. There seems to be good buying here in UNH but we are not moving higher. Need to hold this.
Internals dropping with SPY again. Now into TL and vwap, maybe a bounce there. UNH did pop up, now also rolling lower. Should be the move here. Top TL close almost in play.
Gave me new tight stop to work with. Will exit small win if broke above, look to get right back in on failure. SPY now popping higher. with internals. And all out breakeven.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY just lost it. UNH I top ticked out. Never went a penny higher. Only thing that moved up was bid/offer no trades actually took place. I cant get back in yet.
Made it back to top TL and broke higher with some vol as SPY was losing it. now relative strength I guess. Mybe something back at vwap. Now combined with HTF
Made a move to vwap and broke above mini range as SPY did. Currently rejecting, volume v low. Waiting for better tape cues. Might not be re entry.
Good intial rejection. Some selling, nothing big. SPY now breaking above vwap after building under. UNH following.
SPY had nice drop and UNH actually rose higher. Making nice range under 301, waiting to see if break above rejected for re entry.
And we got it and nice rejection. Got in fairly big as RR is tight. SPY still on the downside.
Did not last long. SPY started ripping up and UNH followed. Out
Broke above TLs on v light vol, SPY is ripping back up, if it can stall short may be here again.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VWAP is right on top of HTF level. Going to have to wait and see it tested. Looks like it should as SPY is popping with internals here.
And then flash crash. No way in.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still didnt make LOD even with SPY selloff. Now we have huge base to work with. Still looking for shorts around vwap.
And we got to vwap. Big offer sat there, taken out and nothing happening above. Got back under and hovering around now. SPY is trending up. Doesnt seem to be getting weak so not sure theres going to be a short here. If anything looking squeezey.
Taking a chance on that squeeze. We keep pulling into low .20s and seeing buying. SPY still up and strong and I am long looking for a good squeeze. Lots of built up trades around here and tape looks good. Market also up and helping.
Wrong right away but hasnt got me out yet. SPY sideways and were still seeing bids here holding us up. Starting to step higher again after vwap HTF test. Might see something soon in SPY as well.
Curled up again on its own. Tape got speedy. There is a vol increase getting us up here. Waiting for it. SPY starting to curl with volume too. If we can get above 301.75 that is the pivot I think well see some shorts hurting.
Have good MA support here. HTF MAs will need time to catch up. This trade needs to be going. Stop reduced.
Took a look at healthcare sector, also ripping higher. Its a problem we are slowing down right now. Not seeing good vol on upside anymore. Stepping and basing higher, but not a lot of gas behind this move.
Dips still being bought. Good tape action. SPY new high. UNH followed.
I have a parallel TL that I can use as over extension if we do such action nearby. Will see.
SPY starting to turn lower, internals not making HHs, UNH pulling down a bit seeing some good selling. Close under entry im out. in at .40, .40 is also a good intraday top that we should hold.
Internals losing it, rolling over hard. All I can hope is they stop before UNH gets low enough.
SPY lost it hard back to vwap. UNH back at entry. TL from pivot low is in play as support. Giving me v nice stop to work with if we hold here.
Lucky me, it held, will use as new stop.
New leg up alongside SPY. Break above recent pivot into 302 break is what I want for half out. Will also be into TL.
5 and 15 min chart are great looking. Bullish candles with volume. Above all MAs. 302 break should be good.
Another new stop to work with as it pbd to trendline. 5min holding high and tight. Inside candle, outside candle, inside candle, now looking to see an outside on new leg up.
SPY and internals failing dropping.
Good news is is upticks on SPY seem to have a lot more effect on UNH than downticks. Bad news is theres a lot more down than up.
Another inside on 5 min. MA did catch up. SPY flush lower back to vwap with internals. All these shorts are taking these dips lower as chance to get out still.
Too damn bad. SPY lost it so did UNH. Another testament to if I trade these low vol, gotta be on same side as SPY
Done for the day. Another mess. Working on weekly.
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