State of the Market 1/4

 Market close the year very strong. SPY at ATH, QQQ just under, DIA in rising wedge at ATH, and IWM breaking down from rising wedge. Market is high and tighter, even more so than last week. 

SPY broke the major upper TL a while back, theres one last rising wedge TL to break to upside before theres nothing else left. QQQs have broken it to upside and built sideways. DIA right at top TL. IWM may be the leader here if we want to turn lower from this over ext. If it breaks down, I dont see how the others cant follow it at this point. 



FAANG names seem to be gaining there strength back for now. I look at Fang names and im not seeing this strength the etf is seeing. BIDU and NFLX carrying it for sure, the others will need to wake up, and still not so sure they are going to. Still failed breakouts higher getting sold, not blasting off like youd like to see. Can certainly still happen, but its not a nice clean uptrend/break like we all want. 


Semi conductors breaking out. Some names out there had been pulling in for a week or so (AMD XLNX NXPI) May be time to see some more upside moves.



Financials breaking out higher looking good. Headed into that 30.50 / 31 area where we have had decade long resistance. 


Energy pulling back into big S zone, held well all week and some names making moves/doing same basing out. Im thinking energy sector is well overdue for some good recovery as it was worst performing sector this year. 


Basic materials getting super tight at ATH. Will be paying more attention to names in this sector. 




Healthcare same as basic materials, also great looking breakout. Relative to SPY, in a great spot to start gain some relative strength and potentially outperformer




Real estate in a very interesting spot too. Nice pullbacks, big zones to be holding above, breaking out with tight MAs and nothing but few pivots above. Looks really good for some big moves. 





Bonds right at there breaking point, starting to perk its head above some TL spots. Could be trouble, could be nothing. 








Lots of good looking action in emerging markets/china. Clear failures, breakouts. I was trading some myself on Wednesday Thursday, wasnt super thrilled with action but potential is certainly there. 


This market is looking great. Lots of notable sector breakouts and important area holds. This may be the point that we go parabolic. Been thinking about it a while now and if we keep refusing to treat an over extended move as a sell situation, I guess were still going higher. 

Lots of good names out there setting up for some big moves alongside these ETFs too. Will have to pay special attention to these industries in the coming weeks. 

We are either setting up for a spectacular parabolic move, or a spectacular failure among all these breakouts in the sectors. In my mind I have to give edge to bulls because trying to call the top each time I see a bearish pattern, id be getting crushed every time. When the sell comes itll come. I can see it happening fast and hard. Maybe this will be the breakout market everyone gets suckered into, only to see it fail hard and fast, adding even more volatility to the downside. 

Im ready to put those SPY puts on when it starts happening, but just not quite yet. For now it looks like we are long and strong and ready to put the calls on. 

SPY under 371 may be a big trigger for the sell.
QQQs under 312
DIA under 302.50
IWM under 193.50/191.50

BREAKING OUT:

Healthcare
Semiconductors
Financials
Basic Materials
Real Estate
Emerging Markets / China

Bonds??

BOTTOMING:

Energy















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