State of the market 1/19

 I do not have a lot of time this weekend to make a bigger post so im going to shorten this one up.

SPY QQQ DIA IWM had there 1st sign of a pullback this friday. Broke under the previous range and tested lower. Had weak open and weak close. Im thinking we have a short at gapping lower and testing lower again




VIX continuing to get tighter, had a nice pop on friday going into mini breakout levels into TL. 



FNGS continues getting tighter relative to SPY. Gotta make a move one way or the other. 



MGC a similar pattern


Tech is not a pretty sight, Looking like a failed breakout. Rolling back under with TL loss. 


Communications industry breaking big time zone. But look at how little that volume is. Comparing to others, what should one expect from this.


Internet index also looking like a rollover happening into TL. 

Financials reaching new ATH from 08 crisis is a big deal. But again look at that volume. This is a monthly chart so im a bit ahead of myself, but considering what else weve seen, not sure if that means this will be any different.

Banks however are doing a pretty good job. Also running into old R levels, but with momentum, will be interesting to see this play out. 




Energy is doing well. Strong breakout from big level. 


Ishares telling a slightly different story. Still not getting above major zone yet. 


Staples are losing it, potentially a failed breakdown but not yet. 

Industrials looking great at one point, cant quite get the ball rolling. Also starting to look like a big failed break. Rolling over now. 



Retail very strong, seeing parabolic moves.



Materials had a nice break, coming back for retest with TL close behind. 

Healthcare in an odd spot. Rising wedge TLs acting as good R, slowing it down for now.



Utilities looks ready for a big pop here. I once heard JC Parets from Allstar charts say Utilities are used as a defensive position in the markets. If markets are dropping, money flows to utilities for protection. Everyone's gonna keep using water and electricity if stocks are down still. 

Cross with SPY, is also at ATL, maybe a failed breakdown 


Real estate in a cool spot. Looks like its trying to bust out higher. 


Dollar is strengthening. After an over extension lower, now seeing some strength come back. 

Emerging markets still long and strong. No signs of weakness yet.

 
 Gold and Silver not looking great. Seems like failed breakouts 



This ^ is interesting because on our initial run higher from March, everything was strong. Usually Metals and stocks are inversely correlated but not this time. Now were starting to see weakness in them as stocks seem to be topping out. Maybe leading the market Lower?

Bonds still weak. Will revisit next week, if we do dump, I want to see them get stronger, if they dont, might mean stocks still want higher. 








SPY QQQ DIA IWM - failing to hold over extension from rising wedge, back to bottom TL of wedge.

FNGS / MGC - failing to hold over extension from rising wedge, back to bottom TL of wedge.

TECH - Failing ATH breakout. Rolling over lower back under ATH level. Coming into major bottom TLs.

FINANCIALS - At ATH with v low volume. Repeats of last times we saw tops and then collapsed. 
BANK - seem to be much stronger, but also into old R levels. 

ENERGY - Broke out very well with volume away from huge area. Pulling in some but seems strong. 

CONSUMER - Big break para move out of rising wedge. Starting to see reversal.

STAPLES - Breaking lower, with volume. 

INDUSTRIALS - Failing breakout. Down to rising wedge bottom TL.

RETAIL - Big break para move out of rising wedge. Starting to see reversal.

BASIC MATERIALS - Coming to retest breakout level and rising wedge TL.

HEALTHCARE - Strong, but caught in range at rising wedge top TLs. 

BIOTECH - Strong and steady. 

UTILITIES - Looks ready for big breakout move higher. 

REAL ESTATE - Possibly breaking out. Very tight. 

EMERGINE MARKETS / CHINA - Strong and trending. 

SILVER / GOLD - Breaking down, big failure. 

BONDS - Weak and holding lower. 


The market continues to be high and tight. The difference now between last couple weeks and this week, is that we have broken the the upside to signal clear over extension, and now come back into the rising wedges.

I did some past research, looking at other markets similar to this. It always started with losing a tight 9/20 MA range. Then once we lost the 50MAs, that was when the real crashes started to come. That is what I will be paying attention to. 

Overall its looking like we want lower. Im expecting a bigger sell off at some point and each week I do these it looks like we get closer and closer to it. I currently have SPY puts on and VXX calls thinking we will see it.

Expectations are we see a sell to start us this week, and then maybe next week we see a much bigger sell to really reset all of this and build a new value range. 

But as always, bulls have been buying every dip possible and moving us higher. So I will still play the long side as long as im seeing strength out there. 



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