9/4 Weekly Review
Kind of a tough week. Market had good direction most of the time, but I was unable to capitalize on a lot of big moves. Simply not taking them, or not getting back in hurts again.
Its hard to be upset at myself. Im consistently doing very good, but im upset at what I am missing out on. Im doing good, but I could be doing great. Ive got a big long weekend to do a lot of review. At the end of this I should have some new rules about what I need to do to regarding:
1. Not missing trades
2. Re entering trades
3. Market correlation
For the market itself. Got parabolic action that turned hard. 1st big selloffs weve seen in a long time. Shook me a bit as I wasnt completely ready for it, but knew it was always coming at some point. Plans were on point. Good setups to work with and good market action. Sell side was fast and clear. Had to take the breaks on most of them, was no way to get in on pullbacks because there was none.
M
Didnt take any trades
T
Bad day. Got bailed out by a huge NVDA scalp win. LLY tough losses, but compliant. Took a fat loss on TTWO. Was a bad trade, had just broke lower from rising wedge after failing to pop above MAs, got under MAs but failed a break lower. Trade was fine, size was too large. Non favorite, only 9 star, weak structure. Didnt deserve risk I put on. PENN almost same case, not great structure, way off of vwap. Trade was fine to take, but didnt exit as fast as I should have. PENN later reset looking a lot better, got ahead of myself on 1st trade, entered into R. I entered off of rejection of the level which is good, but the structure was tight still and hadnt given any upside confirmation yet. So while I did get in off of good levels, I was way sized up as it was still going into R. 2nd attempt was just a bad trade. Too sized up on these.
NVDA was a momentum scalp. A+ looking setup, once the tape started moving, I wanted to follow up with it. 1st try got screwed on exit, is fine. 2nd one good thing I hung in there for re entry, trade still there, tried to add, no more BP. Absolute explosion. Exit was fine, its a scalp from move to move and I got the 1st move.
W
DRI took a lot of trades on, 1st trade great with great adds, just couldnt break out for me. Good exit to lock in win after warning signs, reset the trade. 2nd trade the exact same thing, but this time I didnt exit and held on and took much larger of a loss than I should have. 3rd trade I waited for complete confirmation at new HOD for re entry, could have and should have gotten in sooner on vwap tests with same smaller size. Ended up being small win. CNK fine loss. PK pretty upsetting loss, solid break, once broke TL flushed hard to breakeven where I get out, then spikes right back up.
M another momoscalp / lt that happened to be at HTF level. Great trade from a weak spot would take it every time. Didnt have big short squeeze I like to see blow through vwap but still v good. LVGO good momo scalp that just kept going. Entries could be earlier and better based off of bo level that was under and holding, for some reason gave it alot of time and space before entires, either way v nice win. SHOP another took too long to exit, trade went exactly how I feared it would, had chance for taking the win and didnt do it.
R
1st big sell off day, started off strong. Got some great longs in before it all came off. MGM solid win with big adds, Sold off real hard after PT hit so didnt even capture half of what max couldve been. Chance for re entry there on each but had to reset for me and never did. Not chasing. LVS great adds, great patience, good partial take. Again sell off back to reset trade too aggressive and gave up a lot. But can always get back in and did with great signs back at vwap. Able to get big off of big bids. Quickly ran into problems, big bids stepped up and were taken out so all out for another chance to reset. Never got it.
Now is when market started getting weak, not dumping yet, but there was a theme here. Beatdowns had nice pops, but now failing, market weak and everything failing. I took chance on RRGB and PLAY longs but market was flat out too weak and they failed and we all sold off.
ETSY solid reversal trade. MOMO scalp long on LLY, looked so good but given weakness, did fail, fine.
NVAX really messed with me. Kept seeing great signs for a long, but could not would not do it until SPY started popping, by the time it did I was done with the name and called it a day. Didnt miss much.
F
Got lazy. Had an odd week, felt like trading was off, market seeing first sell off in a couple months. Wanted to take it easy. Missed out on a lot of opportunity.
ZI would not give me what I wanted fast enough. Huge bids really made me rethink the short side, by the time the sell actually came it was too late. Had a couple different tries on it and all failed to flush for me. Instead slowly grinded lower without me in it. Only mistake was not re re entering on 3rd big bid break.
NKLA great reversal trade. H like NVAX, saw the long the whole time, but would not do it without SPY, or fast enough. Re entered a few times, but couldnt do what I wanted and bailed with a couple half sized losses. Again re entering it the problem.
Missed huge PLAY short, and even huger PK long. Was there watching both, didnt take for whatever reason. Just sat ther content with what I had, not wanting to put risk down.
I need to not give up on the day. Never know when opportunity will come and the market will turn. I knew PK was strong even with all the weakness, now that SPY stopped selling off and came back up, now was the time for it to continue, and it was such a clean clear spot. No reason not to take that risk.
NUMBERS
+$1315
35/69 51% WR
90% Compliance
+40R
10 breakeven, 13 full -1R, 9 more than -1R
Avg win $74
Avg loss -$37
Avg risk W $42
Avg risk L $50
Good numbers, As always can be better. 7 Of those more than -1R losses came on Tuesday.
My average risk is skewed too much I dont like it. I look at my wins and losses and its, they just are less on the ones that happened to be wins, and more on the losses. Its just how they are. I didnt do it like that on purpose. The adds to those winners are where the risk taken needs to be bigger, since I am adding to winners, and 10 star trades, and favorites, thats where it needs to change so that avg risk per W is way higher.
Going to begin tracking a new compliance tag of 'not adding risk enough.'
PROBLEMS
Not sized up enough
-Hurts to see the avg risk on w vs l that skewed. Had some real good wins this week but not sized up enough on 10star and favorites hurts the potential p/l.
Not exiting fast enough.
-Taking too long to see if the stock will come back in my favor hurt quite a bit this week. Several trades took much larger losses than needed.
Re entering
-I had good trade ideas this week. Lots of them. I did not capture a lot of them because my time horizon is off. Even if it take 3 times, I gotta go for it if it is still there. Position and entry location will effect losses and taking the loss as I should each time is a necessity. But I cant abandon my idea until structure really is broken. Always better to wish you were in rather than wish you were out. So I get out, with the hopes I can get back in.
SOLUTIONS
-
There needs to be some kind of trigger for me to recognize I need to get bigger in my adds. And my adds happen fast right then and there so it needs to be before I even get my 1st entry on. I already calc the star rating. I know if its a favorite before hand. So what is stopping me from adding bigger and putting down the risk.
Being comfortable. Its supposed to be uncomfortable to be trading larger risk than normal. While my numbers are showing I am trading bigger, I still know that its not as big as I could/should be.
I already have made a plan about this. If 10star, and favorite, thats when I need to be pulling the trigger. Bigger from the start, and bigger on the adds.
A thing I am not considering though in this is market conditions. If conditions are not against my idea, then thats the go sign to push the size.
Its a work in progress that I need to keep getting on myself about it each trade. Its a thing I just have to do. Do the thing to have the power.
-
Used to be pretty good at this, but this week it slipped. Only a few cases did it happen naturally, but most of the time its my own fault for not bailing when I should. I always want to be adding with momentum as it continues to work in my favor. So the second that momentum stops, I have a problem. When that problem comes, and price reverses on me, to -.5R, that is my cue I need to get out, reset the trade, and look to get back in with the momentum again.
Flat out need to be better with this, I know what my rule is, I have to follow it. Day traders must be fast, quick, and adaptable. 3 losses means avoid the trade.
-
I have rules regarding re entry. I have to follow them. No secret here. No special sauce. I have to follow my rules.
PREVIOUS GOALS
-Size up. 2 $1000 winners this month.
Failed overall. Ok in some trades but not all of them.
-Get used to having bigger positions on from adding to winners.
Not used to it.
-More detailed risk plan on adding. How much? How many times? What fits me.
I seem to like adding in tight zones as it holds levels that I just got in at. In groups of 3. And if it stays there a minute, and breaks out again, thats another case to add.
GOALS
-Begin marking 'not adding enough risk' as a compliance tag.
-Make separate workspace in TS for tape on FANG
-Work on Holding Longer blog
-SIZE UP. On 10star + fav + acting right + winning trade. Risk should be around $200 That means 200 shares on 1$ of risk, or 2000 shares on 10 cents of risk.
-If the trade is my setup. I must take it. Never know where the next $1000 trade is coming from.
-NO trades less than -1R
-Follow re entry rules.
Its hard to be upset at myself. Im consistently doing very good, but im upset at what I am missing out on. Im doing good, but I could be doing great. Ive got a big long weekend to do a lot of review. At the end of this I should have some new rules about what I need to do to regarding:
1. Not missing trades
2. Re entering trades
3. Market correlation
For the market itself. Got parabolic action that turned hard. 1st big selloffs weve seen in a long time. Shook me a bit as I wasnt completely ready for it, but knew it was always coming at some point. Plans were on point. Good setups to work with and good market action. Sell side was fast and clear. Had to take the breaks on most of them, was no way to get in on pullbacks because there was none.
M
Didnt take any trades
T
Bad day. Got bailed out by a huge NVDA scalp win. LLY tough losses, but compliant. Took a fat loss on TTWO. Was a bad trade, had just broke lower from rising wedge after failing to pop above MAs, got under MAs but failed a break lower. Trade was fine, size was too large. Non favorite, only 9 star, weak structure. Didnt deserve risk I put on. PENN almost same case, not great structure, way off of vwap. Trade was fine to take, but didnt exit as fast as I should have. PENN later reset looking a lot better, got ahead of myself on 1st trade, entered into R. I entered off of rejection of the level which is good, but the structure was tight still and hadnt given any upside confirmation yet. So while I did get in off of good levels, I was way sized up as it was still going into R. 2nd attempt was just a bad trade. Too sized up on these.
NVDA was a momentum scalp. A+ looking setup, once the tape started moving, I wanted to follow up with it. 1st try got screwed on exit, is fine. 2nd one good thing I hung in there for re entry, trade still there, tried to add, no more BP. Absolute explosion. Exit was fine, its a scalp from move to move and I got the 1st move.
W
DRI took a lot of trades on, 1st trade great with great adds, just couldnt break out for me. Good exit to lock in win after warning signs, reset the trade. 2nd trade the exact same thing, but this time I didnt exit and held on and took much larger of a loss than I should have. 3rd trade I waited for complete confirmation at new HOD for re entry, could have and should have gotten in sooner on vwap tests with same smaller size. Ended up being small win. CNK fine loss. PK pretty upsetting loss, solid break, once broke TL flushed hard to breakeven where I get out, then spikes right back up.
M another momoscalp / lt that happened to be at HTF level. Great trade from a weak spot would take it every time. Didnt have big short squeeze I like to see blow through vwap but still v good. LVGO good momo scalp that just kept going. Entries could be earlier and better based off of bo level that was under and holding, for some reason gave it alot of time and space before entires, either way v nice win. SHOP another took too long to exit, trade went exactly how I feared it would, had chance for taking the win and didnt do it.
R
1st big sell off day, started off strong. Got some great longs in before it all came off. MGM solid win with big adds, Sold off real hard after PT hit so didnt even capture half of what max couldve been. Chance for re entry there on each but had to reset for me and never did. Not chasing. LVS great adds, great patience, good partial take. Again sell off back to reset trade too aggressive and gave up a lot. But can always get back in and did with great signs back at vwap. Able to get big off of big bids. Quickly ran into problems, big bids stepped up and were taken out so all out for another chance to reset. Never got it.
Now is when market started getting weak, not dumping yet, but there was a theme here. Beatdowns had nice pops, but now failing, market weak and everything failing. I took chance on RRGB and PLAY longs but market was flat out too weak and they failed and we all sold off.
ETSY solid reversal trade. MOMO scalp long on LLY, looked so good but given weakness, did fail, fine.
NVAX really messed with me. Kept seeing great signs for a long, but could not would not do it until SPY started popping, by the time it did I was done with the name and called it a day. Didnt miss much.
F
Got lazy. Had an odd week, felt like trading was off, market seeing first sell off in a couple months. Wanted to take it easy. Missed out on a lot of opportunity.
ZI would not give me what I wanted fast enough. Huge bids really made me rethink the short side, by the time the sell actually came it was too late. Had a couple different tries on it and all failed to flush for me. Instead slowly grinded lower without me in it. Only mistake was not re re entering on 3rd big bid break.
NKLA great reversal trade. H like NVAX, saw the long the whole time, but would not do it without SPY, or fast enough. Re entered a few times, but couldnt do what I wanted and bailed with a couple half sized losses. Again re entering it the problem.
Missed huge PLAY short, and even huger PK long. Was there watching both, didnt take for whatever reason. Just sat ther content with what I had, not wanting to put risk down.
I need to not give up on the day. Never know when opportunity will come and the market will turn. I knew PK was strong even with all the weakness, now that SPY stopped selling off and came back up, now was the time for it to continue, and it was such a clean clear spot. No reason not to take that risk.
NUMBERS
+$1315
35/69 51% WR
90% Compliance
+40R
10 breakeven, 13 full -1R, 9 more than -1R
Avg win $74
Avg loss -$37
Avg risk W $42
Avg risk L $50
Good numbers, As always can be better. 7 Of those more than -1R losses came on Tuesday.
My average risk is skewed too much I dont like it. I look at my wins and losses and its, they just are less on the ones that happened to be wins, and more on the losses. Its just how they are. I didnt do it like that on purpose. The adds to those winners are where the risk taken needs to be bigger, since I am adding to winners, and 10 star trades, and favorites, thats where it needs to change so that avg risk per W is way higher.
Going to begin tracking a new compliance tag of 'not adding risk enough.'
PROBLEMS
Not sized up enough
-Hurts to see the avg risk on w vs l that skewed. Had some real good wins this week but not sized up enough on 10star and favorites hurts the potential p/l.
Not exiting fast enough.
-Taking too long to see if the stock will come back in my favor hurt quite a bit this week. Several trades took much larger losses than needed.
Re entering
-I had good trade ideas this week. Lots of them. I did not capture a lot of them because my time horizon is off. Even if it take 3 times, I gotta go for it if it is still there. Position and entry location will effect losses and taking the loss as I should each time is a necessity. But I cant abandon my idea until structure really is broken. Always better to wish you were in rather than wish you were out. So I get out, with the hopes I can get back in.
SOLUTIONS
-
There needs to be some kind of trigger for me to recognize I need to get bigger in my adds. And my adds happen fast right then and there so it needs to be before I even get my 1st entry on. I already calc the star rating. I know if its a favorite before hand. So what is stopping me from adding bigger and putting down the risk.
Being comfortable. Its supposed to be uncomfortable to be trading larger risk than normal. While my numbers are showing I am trading bigger, I still know that its not as big as I could/should be.
I already have made a plan about this. If 10star, and favorite, thats when I need to be pulling the trigger. Bigger from the start, and bigger on the adds.
A thing I am not considering though in this is market conditions. If conditions are not against my idea, then thats the go sign to push the size.
Its a work in progress that I need to keep getting on myself about it each trade. Its a thing I just have to do. Do the thing to have the power.
-
Used to be pretty good at this, but this week it slipped. Only a few cases did it happen naturally, but most of the time its my own fault for not bailing when I should. I always want to be adding with momentum as it continues to work in my favor. So the second that momentum stops, I have a problem. When that problem comes, and price reverses on me, to -.5R, that is my cue I need to get out, reset the trade, and look to get back in with the momentum again.
Flat out need to be better with this, I know what my rule is, I have to follow it. Day traders must be fast, quick, and adaptable. 3 losses means avoid the trade.
-
I have rules regarding re entry. I have to follow them. No secret here. No special sauce. I have to follow my rules.
PREVIOUS GOALS
-Size up. 2 $1000 winners this month.
Failed overall. Ok in some trades but not all of them.
-Get used to having bigger positions on from adding to winners.
Not used to it.
-More detailed risk plan on adding. How much? How many times? What fits me.
I seem to like adding in tight zones as it holds levels that I just got in at. In groups of 3. And if it stays there a minute, and breaks out again, thats another case to add.
GOALS
-Begin marking 'not adding enough risk' as a compliance tag.
-Make separate workspace in TS for tape on FANG
-Work on Holding Longer blog
-SIZE UP. On 10star + fav + acting right + winning trade. Risk should be around $200 That means 200 shares on 1$ of risk, or 2000 shares on 10 cents of risk.
-If the trade is my setup. I must take it. Never know where the next $1000 trade is coming from.
-NO trades less than -1R
-Follow re entry rules.
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