Holding Longer
Here we are again. Time for another big in depth review of winners. Lately feeling like im not locking in a big portion of my winners. My usual 1min hi/lo break to take has served me well, but feeling like there may be something better for me. Its all just a feeling. I could do this and find out there isnt anything notable and ill stick with what im doing. Goal of this is to find out if there is a better way for me to be taking partials off my trade.
Usually I am taking a minimum of half my position off as the trade reaches Profit Target, and then I wait for a 1min hi/lo to be broken and take it. Sometimes ill take off 60%-80% depending on circumstances such as market conditions, volume, how fast we got there.
What im feeling is that I might flat out reduce that and take off 25% on 1min hi lo, regardless of what I find here, to allow still big size to ride and capture the meat of the move. Ive been paying attention to MAs more than ever and noticing a few things about them as I trade. They act as very good guidelines for a trend move. For what I am aiming to capture they seem to be a very good indication of just how aggro the buyers want that move to continue. Do they buy at the 9 and defend? or the 20? The 50 takes much too long to come into play so, im not interested in holding my trades that long.
So I wanna know it all, I wanna check just blind breaks, closes, crosses, pivot hi/lo the works. Never know till you check. Gonna look at my wins from the past few months so lots of checks to go through.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF HIT PT
1. Most profitable if I exited as 9ma was broken
2. ""9ma closed under/above
3. 9ma broke and gave extra 1min lo/hi
4. 9ma cross with 20ma
5. 9ma cross with 20ma close under/above
6. 20ma break
7. 20ma close under
8. 20ma break, give extra 1min lo/hi
9. Wait for new HL/LH to be put in, exit on that break.
10. 1min close under prev 1min hi/lo
11. 1min hi/lo break was best option.
IF DID NOT HIT PT
1. 9ma break
2. 9ma close
3. 9ma give extra 1min lo/hi
4. 9/20 cross
5. 20 break
6. Following TM rules was best option.
HIT PT 49
1. ////
2. //
3. /////// 6
4.
5.
6. /
7.
8. //////// 8
9. //
10. /
11. //////////////////////// 24
DID NOT 43
1. ////////// 10
2. //
3. ///// 5
4. /
5. //
6. /////////////////////// 23
Bottom lines.
Trades that hit PT.
-My 1min take profit is best case scenario half the time.
-Waiting for market to make a new lower high/higher low, is not the best way for me to take off.
-1/4 of the time, most profitable exit was waiting on 9ma to come into play, and give it a moment to see if we hold it or not.
-Crosses are irrelevant.
-20ma is line in the sand of done trades.
Trades that do not hit PT
-My trade management rules to get out are best case half the time.
-Just shy of the other half of the time, waiting on price to lose 9ma is best case
-20ma majority is not in play.
Surprised by the results really. I had a fear that my way of doing it was going to be way off the best case overall and would have to really change things up, but its doesnt seem to be that way. I do need to make some changes though it seems.
The reason I did this in the first place is because I felt many of my trades I was giving up too early, or giving up too much size too early and missing out on a big portion of potential profit. Doing this allows me to find and implement new rules to allow me to hold size longer. As always play to strengths and what the data tells me. So what needs to change?
Well what doesnt need to change is me changing anything about my trades that dont reach PT. My TM rules really working well for me. 1 thing I do want to add to it, is with the 9ma. If the 9ma comes into play and we start losing it, I know im in trouble.
TM rules
-If trade comes into play with 9ma and starts losing it, it is a significant strike against me, and will solidify my reasons to exit trade early along with other rules as it comes back against me. Losing 9ma alone is not reason to get out.
As for trades that do hit PT. If half my trades are most profitable as it breaks 1min hi/lo does that mean I should take half my position off as well? That also means half the time, it isnt the best thing for me to do, so maybe take off less than half to allow majority size to run, in case it does keep running? I think that is the answer. I did this whole review because I can tell from my recent trades that Im not capturing enough, so taking off smaller size will allow me to do that, so I must deal with it.
There will be times that I take off less than half, and it is the 'top' and I give back more than I want. But the other times, I am able to capitalize on that move better because I allowed the position to still stay near 100%. Part of the game.
So for trades that hit PT
After PT broke:
-Take 1/3 off on 1min hi/lo
-Take 1/3 off on 9ma break and new 1min hi/lo
-Take Rest off on trend break / or warning signs.
This is a good place to start. Glad I did it, will revisit it at the end of the month on my monthly review and see if its been working well for me or not.
Usually I am taking a minimum of half my position off as the trade reaches Profit Target, and then I wait for a 1min hi/lo to be broken and take it. Sometimes ill take off 60%-80% depending on circumstances such as market conditions, volume, how fast we got there.
What im feeling is that I might flat out reduce that and take off 25% on 1min hi lo, regardless of what I find here, to allow still big size to ride and capture the meat of the move. Ive been paying attention to MAs more than ever and noticing a few things about them as I trade. They act as very good guidelines for a trend move. For what I am aiming to capture they seem to be a very good indication of just how aggro the buyers want that move to continue. Do they buy at the 9 and defend? or the 20? The 50 takes much too long to come into play so, im not interested in holding my trades that long.
So I wanna know it all, I wanna check just blind breaks, closes, crosses, pivot hi/lo the works. Never know till you check. Gonna look at my wins from the past few months so lots of checks to go through.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF HIT PT
1. Most profitable if I exited as 9ma was broken
2. ""9ma closed under/above
3. 9ma broke and gave extra 1min lo/hi
4. 9ma cross with 20ma
5. 9ma cross with 20ma close under/above
6. 20ma break
7. 20ma close under
8. 20ma break, give extra 1min lo/hi
9. Wait for new HL/LH to be put in, exit on that break.
10. 1min close under prev 1min hi/lo
11. 1min hi/lo break was best option.
IF DID NOT HIT PT
1. 9ma break
2. 9ma close
3. 9ma give extra 1min lo/hi
4. 9/20 cross
5. 20 break
6. Following TM rules was best option.
HIT PT 49
1. ////
2. //
3. /////// 6
4.
5.
6. /
7.
8. //////// 8
9. //
10. /
11. //////////////////////// 24
DID NOT 43
1. ////////// 10
2. //
3. ///// 5
4. /
5. //
6. /////////////////////// 23
Bottom lines.
Trades that hit PT.
-My 1min take profit is best case scenario half the time.
-Waiting for market to make a new lower high/higher low, is not the best way for me to take off.
-1/4 of the time, most profitable exit was waiting on 9ma to come into play, and give it a moment to see if we hold it or not.
-Crosses are irrelevant.
-20ma is line in the sand of done trades.
Trades that do not hit PT
-My trade management rules to get out are best case half the time.
-Just shy of the other half of the time, waiting on price to lose 9ma is best case
-20ma majority is not in play.
Surprised by the results really. I had a fear that my way of doing it was going to be way off the best case overall and would have to really change things up, but its doesnt seem to be that way. I do need to make some changes though it seems.
The reason I did this in the first place is because I felt many of my trades I was giving up too early, or giving up too much size too early and missing out on a big portion of potential profit. Doing this allows me to find and implement new rules to allow me to hold size longer. As always play to strengths and what the data tells me. So what needs to change?
Well what doesnt need to change is me changing anything about my trades that dont reach PT. My TM rules really working well for me. 1 thing I do want to add to it, is with the 9ma. If the 9ma comes into play and we start losing it, I know im in trouble.
TM rules
-If trade comes into play with 9ma and starts losing it, it is a significant strike against me, and will solidify my reasons to exit trade early along with other rules as it comes back against me. Losing 9ma alone is not reason to get out.
As for trades that do hit PT. If half my trades are most profitable as it breaks 1min hi/lo does that mean I should take half my position off as well? That also means half the time, it isnt the best thing for me to do, so maybe take off less than half to allow majority size to run, in case it does keep running? I think that is the answer. I did this whole review because I can tell from my recent trades that Im not capturing enough, so taking off smaller size will allow me to do that, so I must deal with it.
There will be times that I take off less than half, and it is the 'top' and I give back more than I want. But the other times, I am able to capitalize on that move better because I allowed the position to still stay near 100%. Part of the game.
So for trades that hit PT
After PT broke:
-Take 1/3 off on 1min hi/lo
-Take 1/3 off on 9ma break and new 1min hi/lo
-Take Rest off on trend break / or warning signs.
This is a good place to start. Glad I did it, will revisit it at the end of the month on my monthly review and see if its been working well for me or not.
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