This year I spent much more time working on my foundation as a trader, rather than actual trading.
Not to say I didnt trade, but I certainly traded less than ever before.
Just a very distracting year. Trading the way I need to and the way I am best at just cant happen at this desk.
So instead of falling off, I took other routes.
If you arent getting smarter, get faster. If you arent getting faster, get smarter.
I did a ton of groundwork. A lot of sheets, a decent amount of life reflection and some posts to follow.
Instead of forcing myself to fit into a box, I built myself a better foundation to trade off of for the future. Because I always knew I was going to come back, it was just a matter of when.
I tried swing trade only late last year and some early 2023, and no success. I was forced to swing because my time spent on market is very limited and I cant be here to hound my positions, and options because I didnt have a large enough account! Its a losing game.
So much to talk about, we will do trading first, then life, then a combination of both to end it.
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SHEETS CREATED
I went wild this year creating spreadsheets. Massive. Were talking a total of over 100,000,000 cells that update constantly to provide me with scores and rankings on stocks and sectors to give me trends and patterns that I can track and note when they are breaking. It is a large edge.
I now have fundamental reasons why a stock should go up or down. Objectivity.
And on top of that, I have data that records trends inside the trends of sectors and the largest stocks within that sector.
AND on top of that I have queries that I can add or take away a few lines of code to give me %chances that SPY has in the past based on X numbers of variables with Y conditions, that it will close green or red for the day, week, or month.
When there are certain things happening in the market, and you have a large sample size that states that SPY closed green on the month only 15% of the time from this point on, that is valuable data.
My data for this runs back about 30 years. I have 20 years of data on about 90% of all of my variables. That missing 10% sucks but I cant get it so that is something ill just have to deal with.
All in all I would say I am 85% confident that my data is accurate, robust and timely. And thats being conservative.
This year I did the following,
-Created Stock watchlist
-Ratios, Valuation, Performance
-Sector, Industry Comparisons
-Price performance, Relative Strength, Weakness
-Chart Tags
-Position Trades
-Sold Options Trade Journal
-Bought Options Trade Journal
-Stock Trade Journal
-If X then Y, If X and Y then Z type questions.
-Stock Specific Queries/Backtests
-Sector/Breadth/SPYder Trends based on performance, breadth of groups of stocks.
-Rank on performance of sectors and industries.
All have been a huge stepping stone and the MVP of my 2023 in becoming a better and more informed
trader.
The big takeaway is identifying trends and keeping track. Which I have added to my morning routine.
I also have to mention ChatGPT. It has been a huge help in progressing my spreadsheets. I would have moved so much slower if it wasnt for the help this thing provides.
Also ROIC.AI for all easy copy and paste fundamental data.
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POSTS MADE WHILE AT JOB
Where Have I Been June 2022
Im Back Nov 2022
-This is where I first noted I added more to my Sentiment Tracker to better gauge market performance
Specificity in my Swing Trades Nov 2022
-Trying to simplify my ideas, but it just isnt working.
December Thoughts Dec 2022
-This is when I really started wanting to Sell Options
2023 Halfway Journal June 2023
-Here I get personal and talk about life ahead of the job.
-I talk about how I am just not a swing trader. Its not my strength.
-Shortly after this in July I started creating my watchlist spreadsheets
Thoughts Oct 2023
-More personal topics. Knowing I have to leave to get what I want out of trading and my family.
Investments Oct 2023
-Listing out my investment ideas.
-Would like to note that these are not swing trades. These are fundamental and value based investments that remain on as long as 1. the market stays strong and steady. 2. the stocks earnings and chart reflect growth.
Trading Plan Oct 2023
-This is where I started Selling Options and talking about it. Spent the month of October gathering data and determining a course of action.
October Monthly Review Oct 2023
-Sold options Review
November Monthly Review Nov 2023
My Setups Dec 2023
-Needed a way to tag my D setups better
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DAY TRADING
350 Entries, roughly 150 Individual trades.
+$275
Minus Commissions puts me at a grand total of -$215
A completely flat day trading year.
1 trade on V that I ended up holding overnight was my best day trade turned swing on the year for +$1900 6/28/23
80/20 rule still here.
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SWING TRADING
My best success this year has been due to swing trading/position trading.
I am currently up 12k in my swing trading portfolio on an acc that is 50k.
This is because
-I chose high scoring stocks
-I did not chase and bought stocks at major bottoming moves
-Market is hot
-I did my DD and got involved in stocks that have a fundamental AND technical reason to move higher.
My big focus now needs to be.....when do I get out?
Obviously I caught a great run at the end of the year from start of Nov and things took off, but of course that always comes to an end at some point.
This is EOY screenshot. +$12k----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the biggest best thing to note between swing and daytrading is that im very good at finding stocks that can run for a few days, but I am bad at capturing moves in between.
Im good at finding stocks gearing up for a trend creation move, not just intraday but for multi days.
This is promising because it gives me new plans to implement daily.
Started 2016-2018 trading stock
Back in 2019 I experimented with swing trading and options.
Then 2020 day trading options, decided swing wasnt working for me.
2021 began the broad view of the markets and tracking breadth and internals
2022 interested in swing trading and fundamentals now with better market view because of time.
2023 deep dive into fundamentals
2024 > Techno Fundamental Trader
I fully anticipate a lot less trades next year.
Selective due to fundamentals and the charts.
Remember every good swing trade starts as a day trade.
Every swing trade should have a 'daytrade' kind of stop loss.
If my day trade works, I know I have a good shot for a swing trade now and and can look at this name to buy and build a position.
The core, and the adds.
Scalp the adds, build the core.
Scalp the day trades, build the swing trade.
I am a VWAP trader. My best trades are around vwap.
VWAP determines the trend strength. If no trend, no swing trade.
If my day trade holds vwap and rips and buyers CLEARLY involved in the name, then I know I can look at this name as a swing trade opportunity.
Scalp the day trade, build the swing.
Take off majority as I do with my day trades, let the 'runner', my 1st entry, my core, ride until obvious trend break/failure.
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THE HOURLY CHARTS
Have made a large impact on my trading and selection.
I have come to find that the best trades happen when the 1hr 9ma is touching price. If it is not touching price I do not have a day trade.
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TRADING AS A BUSINESS
It is time to take this more serious than ever. I have created an LLC Anthony Larro Trading LLC, that I will use mainly for tax reasons, but it will be an 'official' business.
I always thought I was doing enough, but knew in the back of my head that there were things missing, steps I was skipping. I saw mediocre success for the past few years, but getting this job and seeing how a business is really run shows me things I am missing and steps I have skipped. No room for questions. No red flags. No uuuhhhhhhhs.
I have the tools. I have the spirit. Do the work.
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RESULTS
All in all a totally flat year.
Down a trade on day trading acc.
Slight positive on swing trade acc.
But a Success! Huge moves in making my trade selection more informed and better. Growth in knowledge about selling options. HUGE Growth in fundamental research. Big growth in spreadsheet knowledge. It was a get smart year.
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LIFE
TIME
Time has been the biggest hinderance to my trading in the last year and a half. Not enough time to trade. Not enough time to trade the open. Not enough time to be prepared for the open. Not enough time for Family. Not enough time to complete daily duties. I have been juggling a lot the past year.
Since Time is absolutely necessary for trading, its no wonder I spun my wheels day trading. I simply cant give it all to trading at the bell. There is work to do here. So I got back to swing trading when I was finally ready to get back at it.
My past blog posts about getting back into it detail more, but it was a combination of me loving day trading, gathering data, gathering a holistic view on the market, knowing my edge and what my trades tend to do the next few days that crams it all together into the techno fundamental trader. And thank goodness I read that book because as I was reading it I knew I was still on the right track.
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JOB
I will be leaving this Job in February.
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HOUSE / FAMILY
Renovations on basement are almost complete. It will be done before Christmas. Kitchen reno, which we signed papers on May 30th, have not even started.
We are due for our 2nd baby boy in mid April. God willing I am hoping and praying the Kitchen will be done before he comes along because it will be a nightmare trying to get the house and a baby settled in all at once.
'But what about insurance"
Man fuck your insurance. I lose 1/3 of my paycheck a week to go to the doctor and have him say you'll be fine heres some pills.
'But what if you're in a major accident'
Man fuck your accidents. Ive been fine 30 years as has my wife and child and were fine. Were fine. Its ok. If insurance companies really existed for your sole benefit, why are they 100 billion dollar companies. You get in an accident you still have to pay several thousands of dollars. And thats after you've given them thousands already of your paycheck just to have your name on something.
I have money. I have back ups. I have enough in the bank again to raise my family and continue trading like a had been a couple years ago. I have run the numbers were going to be fine.
And I wont pretend like this is it. I may have to get another job again in the future.
But I also wont pretend like im not the most prepared to trade I have ever been in my career. I am the Eagle. Ive been the mouse and donkey for a long time. I am the Eagle and I feel like it.
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Books:
How I made $2M in the stock market
-Perfectly captures where I am at in the last year. Creating all fundamental based spreadsheets to combine with Technical Analysis. I am now a Techno-Fundamentalist Trader.
All Weather Trader
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I need to stop thinking so much and just stick to what I know I can do best, with the clearest mind and the simplest directions.
And that is buying stock.
-I will continue selling options on SPY and Q as they appear and can be very high EV trades.
As for buying options? I just need to stop.
I have for years now spun my wheels silly trying to convince myself that that extra % gain and low cost is worth the risk of time decay and slippage. And its not.
I dont hold long options well. And you shouldn't as a day trader. You lose so much on pullbacks that you can 'follow your plan' and remain in a trade, but you sacrifice so much. I just have to stop. Its basically an addiction, trying to get these homerun option gains every single time. I have to stop doing it to myself. I have seen moderate success in it, but ive also had a lot of lows, and a lot of anger. Ive seen those huge gains and they are great when they happen, but they are not something that I need to pretend are there available every day.
Stock will be my go to.
Options are no longer primary vehicle of trading.
There will be times that it is still viable.
1. Stock must have penny or two spread on options
2. A+ Daily Setup
3. A+ intraday setup
If those 3 are met, options are good to go. If not, stock.
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GOALS for 1st half of 2024.
-Investments = Long Term Position trading Account.
1) Dig deep. Sector research.
2) Undervalued
3) Strong Fundamentals
4) Strong Sector
5) Strong Earnings
6) Strong W/M Chart
7) Let it ride til it breaks
-Specifically build a strategy around position trading.
Back to Day Trading.
-Get in your groove.
Enjoy life back at home with Family.
-Clean this house and get it 100% gutted and cleaned ready for next baby boy.
Every Weekend must be review.
-Trades
-Update Sheets
-Update notes on Trends
-Game plan blog post for next week
-List things to watch out for.
Nail down a morning routine for max efficiency. There can be no wasted time.
The way I am developing with regards to trends and sheets, looks like I am more meant to swing trade than day trade. Explore this.
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