OTTR

 OTTR Otter Tail Corp

Otter Tail Corp. is a holding company engaged in the energy, infrastructure, and production businesses. It operates through the following segments: Electric, Manufacturing, and Plastics. The Electric segment is involved in the generation, purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of electric energy in western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota, and northeastern South Dakota. The Manufacturing segment consists of businesses in the manufacturing arena, including contract machining, metal parts stamping, fabrication, and painting, and the production of plastic thermoformed horticultural containers, life science and industrial packaging, material handling components, and extruded raw material stock. The Plastics segment offers businesses that produce polyvinyl chloride pipes at plants in North Dakota and Arizona. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Fergus Falls, MN.

Chart is an A on Weekly. All else is meh. Big fan of the 9ma tap on the quarterly. Monthly is good with 3 closes within a couple percent of each other, but maybe a biiit on the over extend side for me. The weekly is what does it for me. The 50ma tap with 9 reclaim and now rip into 20 above thick prominent VA zone tells me were due to run. 

Anch Vwap getting very tight, large vol increase in range around VA POC. Failed breakdown after big earnings gap up and run. CDV also very clear divergence with trapped shorts. And to see a 10% short float adds fuel to that fire. 

Financials are good. Leads in Fundamentals, financials, and growth. Not the highest score, but close to. Ratios are well above average for industry. Stock is a leader. 

Clear growth. Price has reflected this. Back at prices year and a half ago while rev up 20%, income up 200%, EPS up 33%. Cash from Op up 90%

Not super undervalued, but I believe it should be moving higher. 

Last earnings showed huge growth. 35% surprise on EPS and 5% on Rev. 

Q% just turned positive which is huge. Nothing else notable there so hopefully this new trend begins another new trend and we see more green. 

Recently  had a +10% day, which the query does not give good info at all. 23% green next week, 38% green next month and 42% green next Q.

Its earnings shot its Standard deviation (14) up to 5. Which have a 72% green weekly, and 84% monthly. 

Unfortunately OTTR doesn't like the middle ground. When it gets volatile and cools off, numbers tend to drop to under 30% green.

So what that means is I need to see cool calm collected steady rising trends. No monster moves in a super short period of time as its history is telling me it tends to sell off rather than rally. 

Feels like this trade will be a shorter lived on. Ill let it go as long as it can, but I feel I need to be more aggressive with taking profits here. It doesnt have a ton of longer term buyer steam behind it as it on higher time frames, could still pull in more to make a better base. Weekly chart seems to be best to base trade off of. 

There are a lot of positives, but not as many as I would normally like to see. Will have to judge as we go and pay attention to sector as well. 

Same day as entry XLU had HUGE spike higher. 3x ATR.

In 77.12

R 74

Target break 83.70

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12/15 Weekly 

Chart looks best. Huge order on fridays close gave vol bump rarely seen. Numbers arent anything super special. Best is 74% Qtr, but nothing speicla at all.

Chart is the winner here, we will see if it can make a move for me, if not then maybe need to rethink this one. 

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12.23

Parabolic. Going vertical. Letting it ride. Base to new breaks hopefully. 

Queries are a concern. Lots of red. 

A couple of 14% red months with avg return of -7%

A few Green Qtrs with 10% return.

Of course let this go trend higher, but if we reach back to 81ish, thats when I know we are at the worst of what we do on average. 

All in all, big vol breakout. Let it base and continue, not going to sell this week. 

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12.30

Pull in. Still need to give a chance to base and MAs catch up. 

Queries are red. Some green, but clear red edge. Looking at chart it also has history of pulling in for a while. 

I will give it its fair chance to do something different. After such a strong move just short of ATH with big vol, would be silly to cut this on a simple pb on a utility stock. Gotta let it bed. if cant hold 82 thats when we have problems. 

What i am getting from the queries, is that I should not expect this to close above 86 by end of Jan. And expect a Max -9% drawdown. 

1.5

Pull in still. Made range, dip lower to retest prev bo level into vol prof zone. Clear stop here. If we cant hold 82 thats my out. 

Stock does not like volatility. Edge is very clear to downside. Judging by past stock action with similar tops, all led lower. Luckily TA is so clean and clear 82 is the obvious level. Cant hold, out, look to re enter. 

1.13

Trouble here. Did not hold above prev high, 82 still the stop. Came close but did bounce. 

9wma still a ways away, might have to cut before it comes into play. 

Queries not great. All mixed. 82 still stop.

1/28

Made new high. Did not see much afterwards. Hourly MAs catching up. Chart still looks great, 9ma on M not far behind. Let it go. 

2/4

Hit ATH and top of Channel TL. Loooking to take partial. 

Queries are shifitng to downturn. makes sense here. Defenseive name, over bought. Industry is not seeing strength at all. 

The 501hrma 204hrma or 9dma is stop. 

2/10

Continues exploding. WIth high vol into earnings monday. Queries are awful. Lolts of red and 0s. Never seen green after moves like these for quarters in advance. Industry is not helping at all. Probably the worst studies ive ever seen onm a stock performing so well. 

The Q% gain is also at historical highs before seeing a drawdown. And typically it doesnt stay for long.

The last 3 earnings have seen major gap ups. I dont think this time should be any different. Financials still at ATHs with some of these quarters making more than they had in an entire year in the past few years. Hold and take profit soon still. 

2/18

Big gap earnings lower and stalled. Making big bear flag. I sold some on a pb on gap down. Given alll Q pointing lower, figured there was more to go still. Dust still settling so no reason to re enter yet, but it has held well for now. 

Industy is trying to hold up and turn higher.

Queries shifte to nreutrla from heavy red since big down gap pretty much covered the red moves already. Now looking at a bottom here. 

2/22

Broke down on super strong day. Closed last bit out at EOD. More to go lower not wanting to give it more attention any longer.

+$585

+3.25R

MAE -.5R / -$48

MFE +$1000

That earnings down gap hurt. Queries obviously said lower. Given industry, performance, and prev earnings, I dont think it was a mistake to hold through. I took a -40% profits because of it ultiamtely, but I think thats the risk I take when I trade like this. On to the next.