HRI

HRI Herc Holdings


 Whats not to love about this chart. Doesnt get much prettier. Half year all the way down the the hourly looks A+. I was in on 12/11 with avg price of 125. 

Herc Holdings, Inc. engages in equipment rental services. It also sells used equipment and contractor supplies, and provides repair, maintenance, equipment management services, safety training, and ancillary services. Its equipment for rent includes aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Bonita Springs, FL.


Not the greatest stock in the sector but the growth is obvious and strong. We are at 50% more across the board on about all financial metrics, but stock has not seen any reflection of that. We are at same 2021 prices despite all this. Clear undervalue. 

Financial numbers arent anything special. Positive overall and only leading in ROE, Market cap to sales. HRI makes its Market cap in sales this year. 

Last earnings came out and that was the bottom that started new trend up. 20% y/y increases across the board. Stock gapped down. Bought hard.


Queries are phenomenal based on recent performance numbers, Weekly Avg, M and Q avgs. We are up on the quarter 75% of the time on average, with an average return of 15%. Average return is positive in all cases.

On day of entry we closed at +6%. Heres what Query returns on this name when it has +6% days. 




87% of the time we close green on the Quarter with an average return of 35%. Huge outlier here. 

9% Monthly gain. 

And what makes that even better, is we had 6 +6% days since the beginning of Q4. Which we are now up 12% since the first one so it is following suit. 



Its Quarterly gain chart also at launchpad turning positive beginning a new trend.
 
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Had an excellent start to this trade, if it can break out with good vol, hold it, market continues on, sector continues on, should be an excellent trade. XLI also a few pennies under ATH, but getting there in a straight line. Reasons for pulling back in but also reasons to HRI to catch up. 

In 125.07
Stop 118

+35% from entry = 178
Next big break 135
Next R 143.50

Target ? Let it go til clear change in trend. 9ma break and hold under is a good start but if all in order, ill give it the 20 and a chance to form new range. 

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WEEKLY UPDATE 12/15

A good week is an understatement. 

Queries are crazy. Last time HRI put up numbers it has this week.



Best result is W% up 20.4% led to a 100% Pos Qtr with an average return of 65%. That puts us at 240.

Lots of 85%+ results as well. 

Even using worst numbers, average was up 22% for 181

Monthly return averages out to 14% to 169

All in all, the industry saw a very strong week with HRI leading the way. Hold for sure, expecting this to base for a while. Expecting a weak week as % are mostly under 50% for Weekly chance at green. 

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WEEKLY UPDATE 12/22

Beautiful bull flag. Not seeing much rejection at all. Waiting for MAs to cathc up. 

MA on LTF look great to hold us up, but if it cant, there is a lot of space lower. Still given amazing queries, no reason to cut anything here. 

Queries still phenomenal. Green everywhere, huge returns on average, some 90/100% green Qtrly closes. Some 75% monthly. Let it go. No selling from me. 

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YEARLY/QUARTERLY/MONTHLY UPDATE 1/1/24

Seeing some stuttering around this 150 bo level. No surprise given how fast we got here. Have to let it base out. 

HTF charts look awesome. So clear to hold this. No partials to be taken here. Stop can move 140 but we certainly should not see that anytime soon. 


Queries are solid green. Clear hold.

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1.5



Big pb. Clear technical S/R though which is good to see. Means i can expect things down the road to be a bit more obvious. Did not fil gap to 136. weekly 9 ma close to price next week but might not get there, so expecting that as a magnet as well.

Queries still edge greetn, return wise still big but some deep red too. Given how good this stock was to start, how strong industry was to start and still is m/m, how good queries still are now, how its repecting TLs and TA very well, still above major Vol Prof zone, and a very low vol PB, I gotta hold this. 

With wide spread and big moves, this is going to be one of those trades I just have to deal with possibility of giving back a lot. Im still up ~12% If we cannot hold 130, thats when I must accept defeat here and look for re entry. 

1.13

Good base, found bottom clearly at 137.50 above top of major vol prof top.

9wma caught up, acted as good S.

Add is unlikely to present itself next week. But I do want to add. 

Queries still green. 

1/28

Rip higher again. Queries when I did look were still amazing. No reason to cut this. Industry also very strong. 

2/2

Spending a lot of time up here around 150. Whihc is good, last few times we were here we saw rejectiong the next week, we are not seeing that now. Still looking great for more.

Industry very strong. URI industry leader saw huge earnings gap up with plernty of other strong moves as well. Hot indsutry, no reason to think about bailing. Let it ride. 

When the leaders turn, problem. Ive made a list to watch for. This stock looks good on Daily, but weekly maybe getting there in over ext. Vol also drying up. I do need to be a bit cautious as it could also be a failed breakout. And if industry rolls over, this will lose it hard and fast. Must respect market here. 

Queries are good. Seeing more red than normal though, edge stil cealry green so no reason to give it too much thought. 

MFE
M 12% 172
Q 23% 188
MAE
M -9% 140
Q -16% 129

2/9

Bull flag, earnings on Tues. Holding through.

Queries are the same, downside reduced roughly a percenage point higher. Inustry super strong. Not finidng any problems here.

To revisit earlier chart. 


We have hit and suprassed the Q top at 40%. Seems due for a reset to 0, but in past has also maintained a green trend for years straight. 

Given strength of industry and gaps and rips, holding through and will revisit after. 

2/13

Took partial on down gap. Waited on pb and got it, lost vwap, out most. Queries not great. Small edge green but returns to say we can move more still. Given strength, this lets HTF MAs catch up and come to price. Can be a good add scenario down the road. 

2/18

Earnings gap down. Numbers worse than last year. Trend after was up and saw good relciam. 

Industry saw a lot of volatile moves, mostly lower. Some up, but most lower. 

Queries not good. More negative numbers and much less green. 

Parrtial was taken so waiting for this to play out and see how it resets. Wouldnt mind getting back in, but well see what I get. 

2/23

Great rel str. Queries shifted very green. 

Industry meh, saw failure. Cant see a way in this yet but if it does appear I need it. 

Just have to wait here. Will need another dip and possibly 9monthly ma touch first. 

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