LRN

 LRN Stride Inc


At time of entry, 8/23, Market cap was equal to Sales. Price was also at same levels as 2011,13,19,20 despite clear exponential growth. 3.5x sales compared to 2011 and 1.8x 2020. EPS 4x 2020, Income 5x now 6x. I see no reason this shouldnt be a triple digit stock. If it can trade 50 with 1B sales, well with 2B sales why not 100? If it can trade 50 with 25MM income, why not 250 with 150MM income? Of course not that simple but simply looking at number, triple digits is not farfetched. 

Mega power gap last earnings and it just hasnt quit. Only recently saw its first big sell day -3% that it hasnt seen one since June. 

Industry is leading in everything other than growth behind CHGG. And after digging through industry charts, it is clear this is leading, and also susceptible to others in industry. Lots of very similar patterns. That will be something to note on this name going forward.

Avg in 41.78

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WEEK OF 12/18


 Numbers are concerning. Barely edge to green closes, but nothing big standing out. Green returns are great across the board, but red are also awful across the board. Really looks like a make or break situation here. 

Risk first. We are potentially looking at losing 15% max from here. That puts us at 51, which just under at 50.30 puts us in gap fill territory lower. I cant let it get that far. With such a large move higher in a short time with no PB, a deep fast PB seems more than likely especially if others lead lower and market turns lower too. 

The Weekly9ma and D50ma are good points to look for bounces. Im looking at about 7% pb to start looking at an exit. 

        -Note to look at other stocks in industry. 

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12.22

Tight range all week. Came to a sell off point but didnt see it which is great. Still at a point it can roll over. Had a couple of times technicals clearly pointed to a drop but it didnt so buying remains.

Weekly 9ma looks like it will catch up and be in contact with price again which is great. We are now in a 4wk range scenario. With the lack of selling, 9maweekly and 20ma touching, might see another rip. We are at ATH and this stock deserves it so hopefully can see more.

There is reason to think about partial here though. Monthly doji forming. And we are needing a pb. If we lose and hold under weekly 9ma and cant hold 58, were probably due for a bigger PB. 

58.50 is level to consider partial.

Query nothing notable. Big green returns, big red ones too. Slight edge to green but this points towards a longer pull in. Partial needs to happen.

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12.30

Weekly is a nice bullflag forming, 9MA will touch price next week which is great. Monthly a falling start doji not great. 9ma 13 points lower. Going to have to following Weekly and monthly for this. Partials need to be taken as we are so far so fast. HTF candles not touching any 9ma and if history repeats, this stock had its largest 3m 6m and yr gain and saw retracements for months after all of them. 

Stop is now close and flush under weekly 9ma or 58.50 ish.

1.5

Very tricky all week. Made break higher out of range, market lost it, stuffed lower and broke lower into 9ma on weekly and into 50 on D. And into top rnage of vol prof shelf. But sadly with elevated vol.



Last saving grace is an anchored vwap from power earnings gap. If that cant hold, that is my partial signal. 

Was a very tough call to make on Friday when we came into the 50, I wanted to see that close, but was not at desk to make a decision to cut. I should have cut. When we had the gap lower on Friday and lost 58.75 that was my partial. 


Queries not special at all. No green close over 70. Highest at 67%. Edge to green but red returns are here as well. Flat Average returns. Gotta expect this to be done. Partial needs to happen. 

1.13

Finding a base above 57, closed under 9wma, still letting it run. 

1/28

Earnings came out. Saw big gap up followed by major sell. Finding base back in 60. 

Earnings were good, surprised higher beath both eps and rev. Reasons to hold still here with 50dma back in action. Clear stop spot though if 58ish area cant hold.

2/2

More big volume consolidation around the 9wma. Big vol prof building up around 60. 

Industry leaders looking great. Really no concern here. Let it build out for reset. the 20wma should be a stop point and in play this month. 

2/10

Very strong close on friday breaking and closing above quarterly vol prof. Industry super hot. Looks great for more. Would like to add but needs to coil and reset again.

Frequent dates look great for more. Lots of breakouts that trended well. 

58 for stop as well as monthly MAE. 

M MFE 70 tops. 

2/16

Failed break higher into a big dump lower. 20wma is close. but looks like a long way down before it hits any phantom S that may be there. Not worth the hold any longer. Saying goodbye to one of my best wins here. 

Total Profit
    +$1122

MFE
    +1846$

MAE
    -40$
 


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