ASML

 

ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.


ASML Holding NV engages in the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. It includes lithography, metrology and inspection systems. It operates through the following geographical segments: Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Chine, Rest of Asia, Netherlands, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and United States. The company was founded on April 1, 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.


Stock is NOT a leader but clear growth, great financials going exponential. Was in great position at first entry on 10/31. Was an undervalue play as price had not caught up with fundamentals and was back at prev year prices despite consistent growth. 

Semi names make me a bit nervous as I like to get into names that there rev is near 1:1 with market cap. Here we have rev is 1/10th of market cap. But it is a tech name and tech trades differently so trade was still there and met all fundamental criteria for a good trade. 

Chart aligns with growth. 2014 financials doubled in 2018 and so did price. Then it lagged in 2020 and caught back up. Now back at 2021 prices and we are increasing income ~20% a year. Growth is huge and really ramping up last few years going exponential. Price has not reflected this. 
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Week of 12/15


Major TL from ATH has broken higher. Expecting pull in and hoping to base above it. Its tech and foreign so it will be sensitive to overnight moves but overall technically looks great. 

Had a super strong week, I worry about too far too fast but the Query doesn't tell me to worry much. 


Returns phenomenal when closing Green. Averages including red closes still all positive. All signs point to hold through pullbacks here. 

Looking at anywhere from 11%-30% higher come Middle March. 
                                            3%-12% come Middle Jan.

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12.23

Yearly TL still broken and closed above. D 9MA test and rip higher. Still a long ways off of W 9ma. 
Trend is strong, at significant BO level and not seeing rejection. Looks great.

Queries. Great, lots of green, let it go. Worst case 625 pb qtr from now. Best is 940. 5% for weekly. 

Entered 10/31 avg in 599.36

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12.30

Still held above TLs and near 52wk hi. Want to see if break through, not seeing any signs to consider partials yet. I want that break first. 

Big HTF charts all great, closing near highs, touching 9ma, breakout seems imminent. No reason to look for partials yet, will hold all through pb. 

Queries are still great. 

1.5

Big PB. Lost it and hard. Found good base towards friday at 700 and prev range high so considering this a well held pb. 





Queries still tell me hold, but do say expect range. Even after its -5% day, Queries still had edge to green side. 

Weekly lost 9ma and closed under. Not great, but at top point of vol shelf. Hourly showing clear range to use stop off of. Excellent 1hr 9/20ma reclaim with good buying patterns so looks like dip is being bought.

Unfortunately have to deal with wide spread and overnight gap risk. 50dma also v close and should touch next week which will be key to see if I hold or cut all. 

Monthly looks likely for an inside candle and to fill vol prof gap from 700 yo 730. Ideally I get an add situation here and would be happy to do so at some point. 

If I am going to bail on this trade it has to lose the 50dma and 675.

1.13

Solid bounce off of major vol prof, held and made new range with clear levels to work off of. 

Would like to add, but 1hr and 4hr needs to look better first. 50dma almost caught up, 9 still not coiling under price. Looks good for more though still. 

Queries still good edge to green, so wanting to add. 

1/28

Big Earning Pop. Beat both. Into ATH. Partial will be after ATH broken. Strong sector no reason to sell early here. Let it ride. 

Most vol in a week since 2013. Where it began a 40% run after a short pb. Would like to test numbers but fixing sheets right now. 

2/2

Strength continues, closed at W high, ATH close. Didnt break ATH yet though. That will be signal to sell.

After ATH, taake partial on close under 9dma, 204hrma, 1001hrma, whichever happens first.

Clear semi sector strength, no reason to expect this to fail and dump anytime soon. But obviously so far so fast.

Queries do not say mich because this stokc has never performed like this before. Edge to green overall but so little numbers to go off of. . 

MFE

M 10%  980

Q 19% 1060 

MAE

M -7% 825

Q -11% 800

I like MAE a lot as it lines up with gap fill from E below and Whole number 800.

MFE 10% is also a 1:1 Measure move at 980. 

2/9

Stupid strong. Sector as well. Getting clearly overbought right into MM at 980 whcih combines with a few query notes as Average MFE.

Even all the way up here, Queries still showing strong green later on. Sevel showing very small drawdowns. Nothing super consisten other than expecting 30% returns 3 Mo from now still, after already a near 30month return from entry. 

Frequent also showing a lot of pre bubble top in 1999 and bottom pops in 2003. Looks great for more still. 

Overall what I think im seeing, is that queries are telling me we are going para, or we are seeing a top soon. A lot of large MAX MFE/Returns and a lot of small ones as well with as wide as 30% in between. If they were closer I would expect trend, but becuase difference is so wide, we are seeing very rate circumstances. 




2/18

Tried to retest ATH. Down gap on T was reverted a bit. 

Industry going to be an issue. Leader SMCI finally saw its down day and shook things up. A lot of sell candles as well on F. NVDA Earnings next week. Might see final exit on this sooner than later. Such para moves across whole industry will see large PBs and I do not want to stay in this industry while every old buyer is now selling. Who would buy up here??

Queries dont say to hold, but not quite sell either. Most common was a top in 2002. 2nd most was before in went para in late 99. Same theme as last week, para or top. We shall see but signs right now say tech might be done. 

A monthly low break would also mean a fail to hold prev ATH. 877. Will be stop.

2/23

still dumb overbought, but new ATH made. Cant imagine this goes on forever. Will need to cut when the rest falls. 














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