SPY Swing
So heres the situation. FANG names been stuck for months now, all with failed breakouts higher, while QQQ, DIA, SPY, IWM all continue there trek higher. This leaky grind through ATHs. A few days ago we got out big gap down after we again had this choppy move for new ATH. It got bought up, now we are here at the point of holding above this 367 zone.
To me it looks like we are rolling over. We had our sharp drop, deadcat bounce, attempt to get trend back up to ATH and continue our move.
But we arent seeing that happen. We have now failed to stick above 369 and failed a few breaks in between as well. Not to mention our other minor TLs now breaking lower underneath.
ALSO I have been getting crushed on breakout swings. I think the majority of my last trades have had great moves to start, to ultimately collapse and fail rather quickly. The breakouts are getting sold, and hard. Clear in FANG as well.
ALSO our hot sector of tech and SMH are failing as well. XLK made new ATH on super low vol, turning lower inside of a big rising wedge. SMH has not seen strength in a week or so and its leaders AMD NVDA are also breaking down from big channels. SMH almost under D 20ma and breaking down from range.
XLF and other banks are in this boat too. XLF made big triangle, broke higher yesterday, very low vol, dropping lower now back inside range. Other banks also this same leaky slow grind higher without seeing any real pullbacks.
And I think thats what im getting at here. Is that this market needs a big reset. and to do that, were going to have to see the sell off. How much that will be I dont know, but signs are here that this market is tired and needs to see some kind of deeper pull in. Not a gap down 10 points and bid up, but a slow (fast would be nice to help my puts) steady pull in to retest a major bottom so we can get some clean structure and ranges going. Because right now its practically a repeat of this year Feb/March sell off. Giant rising wedge, over extended, into the big sell.
Ultimately I think we are rolling over lower right now. 363 breakdown is what I think this market needs, only to reclaim it and continue bull trend later. But I think we need that breakdown first to really prove there are natural buyers that support this market at proper value areas.
Losing 367 will be the first big cue. I only have starting cues right now. After 367, it should be very obvious from that point on we are weak and ready for a pullback.
If QQQs can follow/lead, losing 308 will be the clear signal.
It is also Christmas, you hear about the santa rally all the time. I think todays close will be big indication of whats to come.
As I typed this out I realize I may be a bit early. We had great sell action today, but starting to recover well going into the close.
Might cut it off and look for better entry on this idea on monday. If we closed near lows I expected gap lower, but were also still above 367 which means we can still see good strength.
I did get all out before the bell. Reclaimed vwap and didnt see any weakness.
Will be revisiting this idea on monday / 367.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This trade is back on. We gapped big above ath and rising wedge TL. Sold off hard in the morning. Coiled around prev ath and made a lot of failed attempts higher. Started to see the rollover pattern and got in starter as we flushed lower
Later on internals got high and tight, and then dropped lower again, SPY followed hard and I added.
Got to range bottom, didnt break, now clear H&S pattern looking ugly. Internals dropping lower. Pulling back up to retest prev ATH. QQQs lost TL from LOD dropping lower as well. coming back to retest. Is sitting above vwap though.
Clear failure in market. FANG failed breakouts everywhere rolled over, internals failed to make HH on 2 attempts. Once SPY lost range and turned red again added more. Looking to take some at new LOD.
I want to swing this. I also am really big and need to make sure im taking some along the way to cover risk.
Had nice drop but bought up pretty quick just after turning red on the day. There is TL from hod in play now its retesting making tight range, internals still clearly weak as is FANG and sectors, looking for rollover here, should see it.
Tested above while QQQs stuck under vwap, wedged in between vwap and prev ath. Market looks clearly like a downside move coming so will hold for pb. Now retesting prev ath.
QQQs broke above, testing higher, rolling over lower, might be time.
Just keeps drifting higher, internals not seeing anything that agrees with this move. Now SPY at vwap.
Now 15 minutes straight without making a new 1min lo in SPY. Right at TLs and vwap, internals weak some trending down hard. Clearly selling happening so must deal.
New 1min lo, internals turning lower hard. Gotta see it. Now negative on trade might have to bail breakeven if it doesnt follow through to downside.
Added. Saw it. Fang turned lower again as did QQQ, internals edge to bears, some new lows. Will have to bail though if we dont follow through now.
Did makew new high into vwap and bo of TLs. Waiting to see. Internals split still some new highs. QQQ broke TL higher too, this can still fail, FANG is not strong.
Now have failures in indices + weak fails in FAN + weak internals. At some point you gotta see it, this needs to dump or I need to bail for a smaller loss. Is turning lower now test retest range low. 372.50 is needed to hold under.
Clear selling on SPY hidden. Lots of buys getting absorbed, QQQs rolling lower after fail. Internals high and tight again. Internals recovering a bit but can lose it right now.
And then huge uptick in internals. Block buying. FANG still so weak downtrending, QQQs into bottom TL.
Dropped to new mini range low, added to make even 20 contracts. If fails lower now I need out. So tight and quiet here.
Popped higher, QQQs retest TL high + vwap, selling off. Internals dropping making LL. SPY engulfed lower back to mini range bottom. QQQ breaking down into prev ath level. Somg big puts crossing right now. I added more, this is moment.
Lost .50, vol picking up, internals dumping. Big HTF engulf candle forming on 5min with volume. Huge put buying. Must deal with pbs.
QQQ moving nice, FANG losing it good, AAPL lost TL, retesting it under vwap. SPY under all MAs with vol. Internals new lows, gotta hold. I dont see reasons to get out.
SPY super low vol pb, QQQs with high vol pb still defending prev ath. SPY looks lower again, internals still down. Really tight again, just need that one little push, might be AAPL trigger.
Next 5min close low vol pb. Edge to bears, still hold.
And theres AAPL and QQQ drop again, SPY pulling up though. Annoying.
QQQ drop made new low, AAPL same, SPY still stuck now in new triangle. Damn son lets go. internals weak still, now pulling up.
FANG big vol sell. Indices following. SPY to bottom TL. Still under .50.
QQQ moves lower with big vol increase come on. SPY not dropping yet. Vol increase though. All we need is that little push to tip over. FANG clearly weak.
Cannot believe this is taking so long. I keep finding reasons to stay, then no follow up, then on retest against me, MORE reasons to add and stay and then on downside more to add. But we just cant drop it yet. QQQ AAPL progressively capitulating.
SPY finally tapping recent pivot low.
Stuck in another pb, internals did not see much weakness on that move lower. Not strength either but starting to hold higher.
Up to retest prev ath. BIG stuff lower. And internals followed.
After those big block buys, weve seen no follow through, so tells me its being absorbed by selling.
Stuff lower and broke pivot low. Internals following some new lows, some on there way. Keep saying this needs to be it, but who knows anymore at this point.
Excellent break and huge vol pick up. QQQ now turning red. finding S here though.
Small tight candles, big vol, tells me buying here. Oddly 5min 200 here acted as good S last 2 times, maybe again now.
Only things in way are TL from LOD, prev close then 2 pivots.
372.17, 372.10. 372, 371.95, 371.77
Pulling up a bit, gotta hold, still more in this tank. Held TL to the penny.
QQQ and SPY v different today. Divergence. QQQ pull up weak low vol, SPY high vol. Rolling over again either way. QQQs red quick and hard.
Big put buying in again. Now into TL/close.
Internals accelerating lower. SPY breaking TL 372 and pivot. Big vol coming in.
We arent quite plowing through these levels. There is buying here.
And into new LOD. Will take half on new 1min high. I want capitulation move, but wont get greedy.
AAPL big piece here was not dropping at all.
Took majority, some to ride, spike back up was fast and hard.
Now AAPL dropping while were rising.
1st part of trade was intraday day trade, Must remember this is also a swing trade. If we do capitulate, ill take it all off and reset much higher.
Never got cap, falling wedge, took more off on break higher as QQQ pulling up and internals getting stronger. May take more. I had 25, I want to leave 5 to swing.
Coming into big zone / prev lo at 371. Real tight important range. Might actually get that cap move if we lose it here.
And we got to it. And took a minute but got under. This is time to see vshape. But coming up on me as internals QQQ and AAPL pulling up too. Took more off.
End of day closed weak, not complete engulfing but close. Added one more near the close. Expecting this to fill the gap at least to 369.50. Losing 371 will be biggest deal for this. Will add if its there.
2ND DAY
I pretty much recylced this trade the same way I did yesterday. I see the intraday short, get big on it, get the flush, leave some for the swing.
I exited this trade near the open, made range above the zone, and I wasnt gonna sit through a breakout above it, so once we did I got out, tiny loss.
Later in day signs showed it wanted weakness again so started building. Adding every time I see things I like, ended up bigger than yesterday.
Did get the flush to LOD, sadly didnt collapse through it so cut majority off again and leaving some to ride if it wants to stay weak and get weaker.
Dips seem to be getting bought again, QQQs back above, SPY retesting TL and bottom of zone, maybe add chance here, internals turned higher though made new highs.
Did turn with everything, added in again, really wanting a solid lod breakdown.
Juked me good, bought up and QQQs ripped, SPY hanging on still. But nah. Cut for small loss.
Market today been so choppy. Hard to get a grip, but will look at this short once again another time when it appears.
Comments
Post a Comment