2020 YEARLY REVIEW
This year was tough. I sit here typing this early December feeling bad for myself honestly. I did a lot of dumb stuff and the majority of it came from lack of discipline. Not having a well rounded plan, not following my plan or rules. Just lazy trading.
Its changed though. After my big break in November I got my shit together. Feeling great about new process, always making improvements here and there. Nothing ever changing dramatically, just constant review of best decisions and worst and adjusting process from there. 9/10 its always me doing something that I shouldn't be. Will go over that more in problems section.
Overall I have to think that it was a good learning year. I really did look inwards to myself and my trading and capitalize on what I did best, and fix or drop what I did worst. I did a lot of different blog posts about fixing issues. Holding longer, cutting faster, not settling for lesser setups, finding what best setups were. Always improving.
Did a LOT of trade review and planning this year. Several blog posts about a number of different subjects, all about improving process. Selection, management, risk, entry, expectations. I really dug deep for these ones and came up with a solid process that I feel great about trading. Lots of links lower in the months section to all of them.
Compared to last year, my trading process has improved immensely. Though the p/l is not there to reflect it yet, I am super comfortable about where I am with regards to every step of 'the trade.' I have been able to get past treating my trading like a black and white situation where risk is the same for all trades. I have been able to size up, and size down on different setups/strats as the numbers/data has come in over the year. Expanding on what works best, and not treating lesser setups that same as bigger setups.
High probability trading was something I only discovered last year and this year, this year I am really seeing it better and trading like it. Ive gone from being late majority of the time, to minimizing risk while maximizing reward, while treating my trading like catching a wave. Buying dips and selling the rips. Buying support and not limiting myself to breakouts only. Increasing size while preventing large damage. Eliminating lesser setups to focus on the best ones that day. Finding appropriate ways to cut losers faster while still keeping potential on for big ideas to play out. Recognizing that my trades arent always going to be the best trade of the year, reviewing data, accepting small wins to prevent small losses. Allowing my trades to run, while at the same time knowing when I need to get out faster than later. Knowing where my edge is in my profit targets, taking profits as they are available while keeping size on to let the trade run. Trading has gone from black and white, to anything but black and white, to having black and white rules to navigate the markets.
I still have issues. I still make those same dumb lack of discipline mistakes that haunt us all. I know missing trades may have been my biggest issue this year. I went back and looked at weekly/monthly reviews and it was a very common theme. Lots of potential profits lost out on that would have certainly guaranteed me a great year. But I will get into the problems later on.
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I want to start this review with some screenshots. Some of the best trades I had this year, as well as some of the biggest misses this year.
Lots of real solid trades and then a few big misses.
This year one of the better things I did was discover my A+ setups. Really understanding why I need to let the market come to me. In all of these screenshots, its pretty clear where my best RR trades can come from. 1% better everyday, trial and error, just keep chugging and youll find what fits right with you.
MONTHS
JANUARY
-Worked on house, moving things around. Had some good experience swinging options. No day trading was focused on too many other things.
FEBRUARY
-Basically same as Jan. Moved into house, got settled down.
MARCH
-My come back to day trading started off real hot. 1st month in already made more than I made all last year. Made a post about how I came back to trading after my biggest break in my career. Same things still sit true with me now almost a year later. Its still a job. Still a privilege. Swing trading options is interesting how im circling back around. Starting to incorporate it into my day trades. Much more on that later.
-I also started doing blog posts instead of word docs. Really helped my tracking and following the stock. I would type out anything significant that happened during the trade before and after it. Still doing that now.
-The first two weeks I had already broken P/L goals I set for the year. I wanted a $1000 day and a $1000 trade. Got both in same day just 8 days into it.
-Started off great, then got trigger happy and shot at everything chopping myself up. A common theme this year.
-Also talked about risk being off. A sad thing I didnt fix until only recently.
-I talked about how I needed to start digging deeper into setups, to find what my best ones are and what I need to avoid.
APRIL
Finding Ways to be More Profitable
Analysis of my Early Morning Trades
-This month I started doing side posts. Basically when I ran into issues in my trading, either streaks of losers, problems in my process, or feeling like something was off, I would write about it.
-Month started with some not so great trading. March was a great month where I was making some good money, and I started getting carried away. Overtrading, poor risk management.
-This month I began adding to winners. My first post above, Finding Ways to be More Profitable, looked at my scalp trades on breakouts and how I can be doing it better. I decided I needed to start smaller, and add as it starts working right away.
-Really took note of my risk being inverted. Avg losers /risk bigger than avg win/risk.
-In Fixing Problems, I took a big look at my winners. I was on a bad streak and was looking for what needed to change.
-Winners proved that on avg, they only go -.15 against me
-Being more selective in my big picture trades. Eliminated a lot of possible trades.
-More descriptive on difference between scalps and big picture trades
-Entry/risk process for scalp/big picture
-As I look back on this month and the posts I wrote, I can see I had a hard time separating my scalp ideas, from my bigger picture ideas. I tried to tie them into 1 strategy which I do still do now, but The way I would describe it made it hard for me to really nail the process down in what I wanted to do, and what I should be doing.
-Analysis of my early morning trades I found, basically, I was chasing. Didnt have enough data to support my big picture ideas and got caught in the chop too frequently.
-Turned out to be a month where I found my problems and put in new solutions and got to work.
MAY
-This was the month I got to work on my solutions from April and see if they were worth it or not. And they were. Of course had to make new improvements to my process as I got more experience and data.
-Started with new analysis of my scalps. Took a good hard look at past few months worth and found
-Best scalps have volume cues
-Failed breaks opposite direction
-Are at HTF level
-Early day (1st 30 min)
-Consolidation/Range, not chasing.
-And after entry
-Never negative
-Still using these rules today and seems to be what I will stick with for some time.
-I talked about being in the 'flow' state. Feeling like I was one with the tape. Feeling the pressure or lack of it. Gauging aggression. A big part of this was me typing out my thoughts while I was in the trade.
-Same with scalps, looked at commonalities.
-Vol cues, both strong in direction, weak in opposite
-Clear Tape
-Failed breaks against
-Longs above vwap, shorts under
-Has already visited HTF price/level/zone
-Fighting for price, by catching it, not chasing it
-Works immediately
-Really just traded this month. Didnt have any raging success, but narrowed my focus again into what works best.
-Problem with inconsistent risk. Had 3 trades account for +30R. Only made +$250 from $25 total risk.
-Ended month with good feelings about how to move forward with trade selection.
JUNE
-Overall had a good month. Made money, not too big, kept it fairly small
-Which was also an issue. I had a lot of good screenshots of great trades. Again not sized up on and didnt capitalize enough. Didnt have many issues of overtrading. Just got to work this month.
-Was my half year review
-Started taking trades on dips/pullbacks. Not just breakouts
-Led to better processes, led to better risk management.
-Nailed down best trades never go against me, and how to trade like it.
-Biggest problems
-Holes in process (lack of data/exp/knowledge)
-Sizing (too big on lesser trades)
-Re entering (too small picture trading off of bigger ideas, I have since made plans to fix this)
-Over Trading (Not trading best A+ setups, focusing on too much. Not caring about only trading A, A+ setups. Not risking lower on B setups)
-Pretty much a signpost of a month I was making good improvements. I think I can say that now as I sit here late December, knowing that I was just beginning to implement new risk plans, not knowing it was going to take me another 3/4 months to really get it to where I want.
-Now I am at the point I have all of my bases covered, but more on that later.
JULY
-Not a good month. 4 Weeks. Each -$700. 2 with 92% Compliance, so what happened.
-Just came out of June and half year review, with focus on increasing size and getting bigger in best setups.
-Overtrading scalps with same risk as big picture trades.
-Started recognizing importance of SPY overall trend, with my daily big picture trend ideas.
-No fills
-Risking too much on lesser setups still (originally thought they were still good enough to take on big picture idea, but not intraday)
-Worked on risk process more. Ultimately eliminated any trades that weren't a 9/10 out of 10.
-Really was not a terrible month, just a losing streak. I did do well sizing up and managing trades, they just wouldnt go for me.
-Arguably the best thing I did this year happened this month. And that was making new trade management rules. It became about making money, and not being right in my ideas. I made rules that made sure I can leave a trade properly, with money. Extremely happy with these rules I made back then and still to this day because...
AUGUST
-Best month of the year. Career too.
-First thing I stated was that I loved my new management rules. Its a big stress relief for me knowing I can leave a trade with money after minutes rather than sit in a maybe trade and maybe escape with a win.
-Compliance on the month at 91% who wouldve guessed, you follow your rules, you make more money.
-Kept trading well, kept pushing size as I went through the month.
-Looking back at screenshots, they are all very good. At proper locations, under good conditions. Just good trading this month. Followed my rules well.
-Still had issues missing trades. Its a big problem of mine even still. Sacrificing potential dollars because I couldn't get my perfect entry. Choosing pennies over dollars.
SEPTEMBER
-The month where things started falling apart. Started off well, had a good beginning, made blog post about Holding Longer. Dug into recent good wins and measured what my best exit would have been if I had done X. Looked at a lot of different scenarios and found a good process to follow.
-Looking back at my weekly reviews, one thing stands out. That market was range bound, choppy and fakey in both directions and my trading turned horrible. This was the month that SPY had gone parabolic into new ATH. Then sold off and was stuck in range for whole month.
-Made a few other posts as well on other topics
Missing Trades - went over my big trades I missed. Either from ignoring it, or not re entering.
Process for Improvement - listed my current issues I was unhappy with in my trading.
-I covered my problem with overtrading. Came from looking at too much at one time, not staying focused on trading the best, and ONLY the best. Not even caring about B setups. Market conditions also led to my overtrading, range bound markets mean I should be seeing less and focusing on less.
-More specific with setups. Daily and intraday.
-Proper tagging of trades
-Talked about not cutting losses fast enough. Bad habit that needs to be broken.
-Risk plan better covered since I was more specific about labeling intraday/daily setups.
-More detail on what to trade. Stock selection.
-Ended month with 3rd Quarter Review.
-It was right after this post that it finally came to me how to trade around the core. How I can limit risk and still capture big wins. I discovered how I can trade scalps and big picture ideas into one trade. Taking size off when wrong, adding when right, leaving it on until big picture idea is broken. Is probably the biggest find of the year for me.
OCTOBER
-You would think after all that work I put in in September, with new plans to protect my trading, that October would have been a stand out month. And It was. It was the worst month I had all year.
-Last month I became more specific with tagging trades and labeling what they really were, now this month I had to apply risk to it.
-Compliance was the issue this month. To be more specific, it was compliance with respect to risk. I would be treating small idea scalps with the same risk as a big idea hold. I would risk 75$+ on a scalp that I would lose 75$ in a few seconds in some cases, and on big picture ideas, I would sit there with 25$ risk on for maybe an hour. It didnt make sense.
-Had a big issue with cutting losers faster. Would turn into hope mode, sit and wait, only to see it get worse. I look to catch waves when trading, A surfer would know if they caught it or not within a second, It should be the same for me and my trading, but I didnt trade like it.
NOVEMBER
-Didnt trade 1st 3 weeks. Vegas trip, then we all got covid. Didnt force anything, just sat and watched market majority of the month.
DECEMBER
-I didnt plan on swing trading as much as I am, but it got really interesting and I wanted to see where I could go with it. I remember last year 2019 towards the end when I stopped daytrading I did the same thing. Took time off for Christmas wedding plans, ended up still trading, but broadening my time horizon.
This time around, I just naturally fell into wanting to trade like this. My ideas are based off of daily charts, expecting a big move for the next day if certain things happen. My idea doesnt end with 1 days worth of action though, these are areas that can still see much more upside potential. The best swing trades can start as day trades.
These names I look at now, I plan on taking the swing strictly if the level is broken and will add if I get good setups. Stop is much wider but still the same concept. Looking to exit if the break fails. And im not stopping day trading. If the setups I want in those names appear, I will still take that day trade alongside the swing.
I will say though that my day trading has dropped drastically the past month. Ive really been liking swinging these names instead and adding to them as I can. I also simply havent been seeing that many day trade setups it is odd. But I can still make money on the idea, it doesnt just have to be a day trade setup anymore.
Im still learning as I go. I take option trades on them. Had problems of going too far out with low delta and high theta, so some of my trades while the underlying has gained 7/8 points, my calls havent moved more than a few ticks in my favor.
So currently im settling for slightly OTM calls, priced around 1$-3$
Overall been a very good exp. Making good money from it, it gets tough to hold these trades though. They lose value pretty quick just waiting a few days on simple pullbacks. Id be up 400% on some, only to see them come back to breakeven despite being well above the original entry spot.
The way I daytrade is also the way I want to swing trade. I dont like sitting and waiting, giving back profits. My day trade rules allow me to take money off, while still keeping some on for a potential bigger move. Options its harder to do that.
1. Its hard to get adds on as it really increases risk fast.
2. Waiting on pbs could mean days of premium value loss
3. Volatility means wild swings in premium price. On explosive moves, they are overpriced.
I like to take day trades from move 2 move. I think I need to be doing the same with options. I can always get back in. Ill find that sweet spot eventually and this will be a big focus for 2021.
Ill make a separate blog post about all this sometime in January
NUMBERS
So I have a lot of discrepancy here. I didnt do a good job of consistent record keeping this year apparently. Ive got several different numbers from several different sources. I guess I can say that bottom line, Tradestations number for me is the one that I ended the year at.
That number is +$236
My Daily Spreadsheet is +$271
My Weekly Spreadsheet puts me at +$232
My Monthly Spreadsheet puts me at +$101
My Tradervue stats tell me im at +$2350
My spreadsheets do not contain stats on my options trades.
My options trades alone this past couple months are +$1500 minus commissions puts me at +$1100. I do not know if tradestation is including this or not. I also have 4 open positions still, 3 of which are big wins and still more to go it looks like so this number may get higher, if lower, it wont be much at all.
So all in all, these numbers are positive. Its a bit frustrating though knowing what it could potentially be. I think if I traded 100% perfect this year, I could be at a max +$50k. I know I underperformed. But also made big strides in process. Cant always be about the numbers. Fix your system/process and the numbers will follow.
Time for a screenshot dump. All from my own spreadsheets and Tradervue.
These numbers do not include options. I will have to make a new post about them next year per month.
These are all big picture trades / scalps / reversals
994/2760 38% WR
Avg win +$55
Avg Loss -$31
Avg Risk on W $35
Avg Risk on L $39
80% Compliant
+308R
24% of trades were -1R
14% of trades were larger than -1R
Avg Winning day +$266
Avg Losing day -$247
1.1 Million shares traded.
Few things. First kick in the nuts is +308R, yet only up 1 good trade. Main thing here is risk. Countless reviews talking about being too small on the trades that ended up big R movers. Too big on the ones that were losers.
Seeing avg risk on W smaller than avg risk on L, is a cue. Should be nearly the same at all times. Inconsistency leads to these kinds of numbers.
Sizing up is always a goal for every trader. And it was for me at points this year. But its not just as simple as doubling your starting position as I have talked about above.
Compared to last year
674/1456 46%
Avg Win $55
Avg Loss -$35
Compliance 69%
+142R
I went back over my last year review. Its funny im saying the same things I am now. New process, focusing on less. Its a literal repeat of last year. Just constantly tinkering of the same issues that come up in your trading. I will say that I am now a lot more defined than I was last year. It really comes down to selection, risk, and management.
Definitely took more trades. Better compliance. Just about same exact Avg win and loss. Doubled amount of R I made. All about risk here. Consistency.
Biggest trade was PRFT. Just a stupid huge reversal squeeze at end of day.
Worst was SPY. A lot of overtrading and forced option trades.
Ignore avg hold time. Something is wrong there.
Seems to be my Avg win is around 1.5x bigger than avg loss. That seems a little on the low side overall. I know I had periods where it sat around 2 for a while, and on best of occasions was 3.
So much money given back on stupid reversal trades. Fighting the market a lot just looking for a reason to trade.
Cutting losers fast, letting winners run.
Trades best with bigger RVOL.
This one is interesting. Names with Big ATR (AMZN NFLX TSLA) I am not trading well.
Reversal trades at -2ATR worked well.
Very interesting to see that I am only making money on names that are trading outside there ATR. Anything that hasnt moved a full ATR, I suppose would mean its not as volatile, leading to low rvol, apparently leading me to losses. Volume cues.
Avg MAE on winning days -.5R MFE 1.63
Avg win about 2.5x loss.
BIGGEST PROBLEMS THIS YEAR
-Inverted risk. Big wins amounting to little p/l gain.
-Number of things to blame here. Mainly myself for not being consistent with size at all times. Other part, just how it happens, buying power, misreading my actual risk. I really worked on this near the end. With having proper guidelines for myself, the only reason it can keep being inverted is my own laziness. Follow my risk plan, account for spread and slippage and let the trades work.
-Not capitalizing on best trades. Size too small.
-Ties in with whats above. I can remember several trades where id get out, get back in with smaller size, only to have the trade become a winner but only cover the loss instead of several losses. Annoying. Fix is having a risk plan and following it at all times. Doesnt matter, have to get in same size.
-Trying to do too much, too fast.
-I cant do 5 goals every week. Im just not that good. Bella says pick 1 goal and work intensively towards it. Its time to stop ignoring that advice. Every week I have to pick just 1 thing to focus on. I think what would happen to me is I would pick several, do a little bit better on all of them, then next week start slacking in some and have to pick up where I started all over again. I think I narrowed it down to 3 big ones for the year. Selection, risk, and management.
-Treating scalps same as big picture setups with regards to risk.
-Spinning my wheels, treading water when I would treat scalps with same $$ at risk. Cause scalps I can be in and out a few times, each losing 50$ when I take 1 big picture trade for $50 risk and win, only covers some of the scalps. Fixed this in the end by trading scalps smaller and adding to wins.
-Trading too much without understanding why I need to trade less. Not about making 10 100$ winning trades. More about making 1 1000$ trade.
-WAY too concerned with catching everything rather than focusing on what I do best. Earlier this year I would have days where I would literally be watching 40 stocks at a time. No way could I manage them all perfectly. No way were they all actual A grade setups either. Narrowed my focus towards the end and very happy with mental capital situations on a daily basis now. Less is more.
-Choking wins off too fast.
-Simply not following my rules. So much money missed out on cutting size too fast, improperly, just because I was up.
-Not believing in myself/my trading, and trading like it.
-I am a good trader. I have good eyes. I catch things, I see things. I am one with the flow of the market. When im on it, im on it. But rarely this year did I trade like it. Most of it came from lack of process. I read Atomic Habits this year and a part of it comes to mind. I identify as a good trader, I had a bad process, I had bad outcomes. Now, I identify as a better trader, who has a much more solid process, therefore I expect better outcomes. Starts with yourself, leads to creating process that makes sense and builds on your strengths, ends with better outcomes. I cant just be a winning trader if I think I am. The link is the process. Your system. To help get you to your desired outcome.
-Not taking longer breaks
-Little burned out this year. Couldve taken more time off. Looks like I only took 5 weeks off this year aside from Jan/Feb moving stuff. Its important to be rested. Muscles grow while you sleep, why not your brain too. Cant workout 6 months straight it does more harm than good at some point. I cant do that. Im not that person. I need time off every now and then. But damn I love trading. Hate feeling like im gonna miss that one day that wouldve been the best of the year.
-I think im going to settle for p/l breaks. If I start performing bad 3 weeks In a row, its time for time off to reset.
-Trading too much in range bound markets.
-This happened mainly after this big feb/march dump. I didnt really have a grip on how to trade my daytrades, given context of overall market. I would get caught in so much chop, trying to make so many things happened, when really I needed to do a lot less and focus on quality over quantity. Gave up a lot of money doing this.
-Missing best ideas.
-This also came from not having a complete process. Always had good ideas, saw the names blow up, and I wouldnt be in because I didnt get exactly what I wanted. I have a good fix now with swing entries, as well as looking for day trades alongside them. Now I can take the swing to capture the big potential move, and the day trade if it sets up how I want it to. Dont have to worry about chasing the day trade anymore.
-Not looking enough at news.
-I chart well, I am great with TA. I dont look at news on names on my watchlist. And I should. It would be important to know if theres an upgrade or downgrade, or industry news. Gives more bias and context. How could you not read news on the names youre swinging.
LAST YEARS GOALS
-Take money out of my account
-I did this twice this yeah I think. Was nice, but didnt last long. Not enough. I can say that I made money trading, but again, not enough.
-Read 10 books
-Atomic Habits, Chop Wood Carry Water, Flash Crash, TA using Multiple Timeframes, MOMO Traders, How We Trade Options, Markets in Profile, Trading with Market Profile, The Art and Science of TA, The Disciplined Trader, The book of 5 Rings. And currently Reading Master Swing Trader. Thats 11 down. V nice.
-Get a System down for adding to winners.
-Oh yes I did. Love it. For the moment it is right where I want it.
-1st $1000 Trade and day
-Did this one 2nd week back to trading this year, and just recently had 2 separate options swings over $1000
-Better Process for determining A+ setups.
-Yes. Starting with selection and eliminating all the 'its ok enough' setups. I now look for the setups that are super tight, and with non to very little in the way. Looking for path of least resistance.
-Better Process for RISK on A+ setups.
-It really did take all year, but I finally got it. Separating big picture and scalps and adds
-Come up with new processes around daily context
-Well, a process around it I guess I found it. Simply eliminating what isnt the best looking and taking what is. I trade each D setup the same way, nothing is different though just because its a R or TBO. With swing trading there may be something to do here.
LAST YEAR LIFE GOALS
-Fast 52 days.
-No. I did maybe 15 times this year. Just wasnt feeling like doing it. I originally set this because I felt better after doing it. Well I can still feel good the next day, by not eating a butt ton of food the night before. Which sometimes happens but I will say I did better this year by not eating like an asshole.
-Play some good baseball
-Brand new team in the league, we did very good for a 1st time team. Beat all the other teams at leas once. Didnt win the ship, but were solid contenders the whole season. Batted .326 OBP .436, not bad at all. Led team in strikeouts though please god not again next year. Ironically, came down to a bad process and not building on my strengths 🤔
-See my abs
-Yes! But not in the way I thought. I didnt lose much weight, but I did even myself out. Transferred fat weight to muscle weight and I got a big boy 2 pack. Maybe 4pack this next year incoming.
-Use posture/imbalance exercises
-Everyday still. Nothing, I dont think, will ever be fixed or cured, only managed. And I have done a good job this year at that.
You know overall, actually really happy about these goals. Hit all of them but 1 and I really do feel good about that. Good progress.
NEW GOALS
-Find Option Swing process, create rules, risk rules, add, trade management, early exits, early entries, profit taking.
-Capitalize on as much as I can. Make good money.
-Make 12k from trading. $1000 a month.
-Read 10 more books.
-Selection, Risk, Management are the big 3. Get better in all
-Selection by finding what setups I need to still eliminate, or add in.
-Risk consistent in every scenario. Not inverted, but near the same for W and L
-Management by following my management rules. (finding out what they should be for option swing)
-85% compliance whole year
-Miss less trades
-Hopefully from Option swings
-Find out if I can entirely switch from shares to options, or if I should only do shares and abandon options
-Trade less when market doesnt make sense. Trade more when things are hot. Dont fight the market in range bound contexts.
-Change approach in trading to quicker takes when market is range bound/not making sense.
-Go over biggest problems in 2020 at end of 2021 and relate.
-Take a break when performing bad or feeling burned out.
-Focus on 1 main monthly goal every month.
LIFE GOALS
-Get Married. Hell Yeah.
-Play some good baseball again. Dont lead team in strikeouts. Back to swing that felt right.
-Continue house work. Update doors/ moldings.
-Bike ride once a week at least
-Figure out where we want to move next.
May not have made a good chunk of money. But the biggest leap forward this year was in my processes. I really nailed down my strengths and how I want to capitalize on them in the market. Trading the way that makes sense to me. Having rules that makes sense to me. Charting, planning, preparing, the way that makes sense to me.
I see the market. I chart the right things, look at the right things. I have it all in front of me. Time to click buttons and let the market do the rest. Stay compliant.
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