AMZN Swing

 

AMZN looking fantastic. Just like FB, plan and expectations are the same. Super tight, increasing vol, starting to see relative strength. 

Entry:
Break above zone and hold/break prev hi with aggression.

Stop:
Break, hold below 3125

Expectations:
May take a while again, is tighter than FB though so we are at the point where If im right or wrong, Ill find out in a day or two. But also have to give some space.

Im not an options expert. And AMZN options are dumb expensive. I flat out dont want to put that much right on so I have to find another way to get in. 

I spent some time, not enough, doing research on spreads/condors and whatnot and tried to find something that made sense to me, to limit risk, while maximizing upside. It seems a condor/butterfly is what I want, but im just not experienced enough to pull the trigger on one and see what happens. I also dont like the idea of holding a contract to the exp date, to only make money if it sits right in that zone, otherwise I lose, even if it went past that zone. 

And now after looking at potential gains, it doesnt make sense to put on 500$ at risk to only make maybe 300$ so I have to look at other options again here. 

Ok took a closer look again, I can take the 4000calls jan 15. Looking back at PA on the contract it was at 12$ on Dec 1 when price was at 3250. So price being at ~ 32 on entry, Essentially doubling on a $50 move would put me much higher than I thought If we do make it to 3360

Got in as market was weak, AMZN held sideways, then market saw strength, AMZN led the way.

In jan 15 4k at 6.30

Excellent start, took right off above breakout level with big vol increase. SPY and QQQs look to recover, if this is the turn AMZN leading the way

Is looking like if we get to PT at 3500, contract will be ~16$ risk is big on this one, but its a must trade. 

Rare chance to double down. Market had a drop, brought AMZN to original entry + big bo level. Held well and ticked up higher breaking mini TL, added same calls. Market ripping higher. 

 Market exploded faster than before to new HOD. AMZN is not following. Its drifting higher on v low volume. Feels bad. Must hold. 

Grinded its low volume ass up to HOD anyways. Market rolling over, now starting to see some kinda pb. 

Held up very well as market kinda pulled in. Made new HOD with big vol increase, looks fantastic. 

Ended super strong. Double Distribution day. Looks very clear for bigger breakout. Holding through a lot here, no reason to bail. Closed above TL and HTF zone, just short of big bo pivot. PT is still a hundred points out. Holding for break of 3368

2nd day

Market was tough in the morning. We couldnt stick a higher move for anything and dumped only to see it bid up with vol and internals helping with strength. But we just couldnt see AMZN follow through with it.

Ultimately we are holding above zone around 3230 which is great, because otherwise this looks like a big failed breakout. Market has to start helping or I have to get out. Risk is high and ill get killed as it moves against me. .

Market just building sideways under vwap, AMZN above zone still. Just failed a triangle breakdown back into zone. Market looks like its either going to dump, or internals tell me well rip higher. If we rip higher I will add and this will be stop out area. 

Will only add once we start holding above something and looking bullish again. Market overall weak, AMZN unclean structure. Will have to wait. 

And we did make new lod, ripped back up as did market and internals broke out higher. All of them. SPY and QQQ also failed to make new lows and came into TL, QQQs broke it and stuttering around, SPY finding R here. AMZN made nice new high and starting to get back above All lower time frame MAs. Added on break. Stop is if we cant hold this. 

Just held under vwap all day, QQQ gave it up, chopping around vwap, Call lost big bid holding price up. Took off the add, too much uncertainty. Still have 2 on. Will add tomorrow if i see it

Ended up bailing on whole trade. Once that guy was gone, prem started dropping even while price rising. 

Then we lost it in QQQs and AMZN followed. No way with this much weakness today, on a day that we should have blown through the roof, do I need to hold 2 of the most expensive contracts ive ever bought over night. Protecting bigger losses here. 

If the trade sets back up again, ill get back in. But I do not feel comfortable holding this right now. 

Welp, things changed fast and hard. Market tore that down move up real fast. AMZN also dipped under zone and held it with huge vol, as it is the close, and now pulling back up into vwap as market tears to new HOD. Back in with stop under 3220

Main thing to look for tomorrow, since indices closed so strong, is to look for that add back in. Reduce when its not acting right, and good god it was not at all today, add back in when it is acting right. 

3rd day

Quiet open. Nothing popping, market pulling in, internals in strong spot also pulling lower. Will have to wait for bounce.

AMZN went straight to stop/prev lod zone. If market wants to turn here this can be a great spot for adding. But so far does not look likely. QQQs making new LOD SPY still not showing signs of slowing down. 

Got down here and ripped up, coming to retest it again. Another rip + market turn ill add. 

Got a nice TL break and turn, market showing signs, not super clear but AMZN itself looks good. Will be all out if we hold under LOD. 

QQQ made new LOD, AMZN did not, held strong with AAPL. FANG split, edge to bears. Not dead yet. 

Structure looking terrible. Indices broke downtrendline from open, no pops higher. AMZN tight curling lower with 9and 20. Might be done for now. 

Made new low as did QQQ, getting bought for moment. 

Another wait for the pullback that never comes. Thing is dumping on me. 

And didnt show any signs of recovery when market pulled up. All out, will wait on reset. 

Good management, minimal damage. 

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Dec 22

Got back in. Pulled into og bo level and TL retest, held well while market turning up after dip at open. AMZN shortly followed. Using this as entry and risk point. Basically catching a bottom. 

Added as it kept moving towards HOD. Now just a waiting game to see if we can hold this area and start a move higher again. 

Just discovered new TL in play that acted as good R so far. Will be another good break if we can see the strength today

Ended up stopping out. Re entry is still here.

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Big miss. But market sell reset this for me. Held strong all day while market sold off. 

Made huge triangle and broke higher. Trade really isnt anything that I wanted, but bottom line is I know I want in. Small risk. Just let it be. 

Weak close with market, made big doji, will hold.

Out under 3300 break 

2nd

Sold off hard all morning. Made big falling wedge right at stop out point.

Ultimately I want out, but im adding on this move, theres big chance for larger recovery from here as overall market is doing the same thing. 

Wedge breaking to upside, market has good short at pop higher here too, if it fails I will be all out. 

Market is really trying to see the pop here, just cant get it though, AMZN broke, added in, retesting TL. 

Market failed hard. All out before it got worse.