VRM Swing
VRM with a nice setup and breakout. Big TL break + reset for breakout after making ATL very slowly. Looking like a failed breakdown.
IPO sector stupid hot, Shortfloat at 11%, failed breakdown, 9/20 coil under for 1st time since ATH, TL break from ATH, slightly above avg vol coming in as we come back up. Not the prettiest, but looks good.
Entry
Break of prev hi/bo level
Stop
hold under 35.15
Expectations
Should be a good pop from day 1. If long term shorts want out, this the 'correct' place to do it, if long term longs want in, this is a great low risk spot to do it. No MA or significant daily levels for 2 points higher, should be a clear long from the start
Profit target
I Want to see a good retest of its early days S around 43, which would also be anchored vwap from IPO day. 40 should be a struggle as its 50MA and IPO date lows are around there. May exit early around there if its there.
Option
Jan 15 50 in .80 risk .20 PT 2.5
AFTER ENTRY
great start, saw tape and big buys came in, clear hidden sell at 36.50 got above after a while. Market selling off, we are strong and holding higher looking like we want more.
Great start to this trade, way above avg vol, rvol late day at 2, definitely interest here. I have a giant triangle im looking at going into the close, will add if we see some more strength going into the bell.
Added on that triangle break. The jan 15 55calls have seen a huge increase in volume. Doubling what the open interest was. I added 2 contracts at .55, start of a great trade, add to winners.
Blew up almost a point after entry, closed right near HOD. Will hold. Out if loses 36 and hold under. Take 1 off if
we get big gap up, look to put it back on.
2nd day
Running into an issue, we are getting over extended already.
We are looking for breakouts here, hoping for explosive price movement, but when it comes to over extension I need to be safe about it. If we get this move going higher any faster any further, It would probably be smart to take some off looking to put it back on if it resets.
If we get to 39 quickly today, Im going to take off one 55 call if it looks like its going to retrace and lose some more. Ill give it time to stick higher and hold, but if it starts looking like a big rollover coming, ill get out and back in later.
Market open saw weakness, VRM v strong went right to IPO low and saw good R. Coming off it some. Tapped TL, didnt quite get too over ext so I may hold.
Turned higher back to HOD, very strong. Will take off at 39 if we do get there.
Another hidden sell at 38.50 now. Super tight looks ready to explode.
And it did. If we can hit 39.60 thatd really be something special. Not seeing any pbs so far, looks like a trend continue day on it. But obviously over ext from TL. Well see where we go.
Well market turned and we dumped pretty good. Stuck. Still overall excellent high vol action.
Came back up anyways and dumped again. Messy. Will still hold. Wont take that over ext unless we get that 39 test.
Crazy bullish setups today, huge break through to 39. Might just end up holding this for 40. Options really are not moving in my favor, still sitting just above breakeven despite the 3$ move.
HTF trend looks to continue blasting up. 40 im going to have to take some. Were getting there very quickly, 50MA will be right on top, and it will be after a solid breakout pivot breaking downtrend since ATH.
Another hidden sell at 39, wouldnt be surprised to see one at 39.50 anymore.
Got through, 1ATR move puts us right at the BO level at 39.63. + will have another over extension from TL.
Im really not happy with how these options are moving. Were seeing above avg vol in both stock and options, yet these things are barely budging. Up 4 points almost and my 55 calls are only at breakeven.
Getting to 39.50 well see, starting to go parabolic.
Just tapped bo level, and sold off. Ow. Options STILL havent moved higher. I must be too far out. Usually im up at least double on moves like these. Did not break upper TL for overext. Looks like im holding through this.
Refound hidden sell at 39, got above again. What more can you ask of a stock.
Making another run at breakout. Will see what happens this time around,
Made the break, still didnt break TL. It looks like im going to hold these still. Maybe a gap up tomorrow. Still has bigger reasons to run, I cant get too caught up in lower time frames. Ultimately its the start of a very big shift in the stock.
If it wants to get over ext, then I suppose thats a good thing on a swing trade basis. It means theres aggro, trades getting in and out. Things happening. We want it to continue on like that and not choke it off when its showing the signs of just beginning. So I will hold.
Super strong day. Trend higher all day. Holding through. Gap up may take some off. 43 will take off. Dont plan on exiting tomorrow but if we get to 38 there may be issues.
Sideways to start the day. Just coiling ultimately edge to bulls. Hold.
Held big pic TL all day. Made tight top at prev close / bo level, and broke it right before the close and closed above. Looks like more. 40 will be big.
Strong day, held well, had dips, but recovered each time. Clear stop, hold under 40 for out.
4th day
Strong close, low vol. Closed just under prev hod.
Definitely cannot make mistake of settling for too far out just because its low priced. Havent moved much at all, 40calls have gone from 2 to 4.50 since entry.
5th day
very strong, right through anchvwap which is really good. v surprised to not see much R here. Two calls im in saw 0 vol today. Still moved higher.
6th day
gapping higher, will take partial on weakness. Still a few levels ahead of us before it gets really clear. Anch vwap from ATH at 47.80 gotta be the spot we slow down some at.
Pretty much sideways day. Never got fill to take partial, still barely positive. Kinda stuck. Breaks prev lo I have to take no matter what. Is due for a good pb.
7th day
Held well. Closed right on big anch vwap and under 43. Is ok, will hold.
8th
Strong day again, pb seems done as we trended higher all day. Options barely green but will hold for more upside.
Closed very strong back above big bo level, looks like pb is done and were ready for another move higher.
Anch vwap from IPO day at 45.70 is only thing in the way. At that tap ill look to take profits again, maybe now ill actually make some money from this trade. If I had bought 35/40 calls they are up 300%/250%, instead I am breakeven and up 50%.
9th
Ok day, strong close. Still held above anch vwap, almost a potential add at this point if market isnt weak.
10th
I did get that add. Strong open, made triangle, broke higher and added, vertical move to BO level. Holding after all.
Failed breakout. Stuffed lower, lower vol. TL still holding it up, so will hold.
All out under 43 hold. Add potential might be here again though.
11th
Finally all out of this name. Sold off hard to start the day, ready to call it quits here.
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