LOB Swing

 

LOB strong name, big run from 13$ no stops, just now seeing good consolidation. Nice wait for MAs to coil and saw good vol rise as we got back above. Plus failed move lower twice now.

Is a bank name and banks have been v strong lately, see no reason they cant continue.

Bought Jan 15 50 calls at 1.30 I did end up chasing, back gap up day and LOB saw it too and held higher made a nice bo above a bunch of levels without really testing original bo level, or prev high. Which is ok, but as it made that break on big vol, turned lower back to vwap and HTF levels. Looking for price to get to ATH at 47.50 which should put calls around $2.50

Not the best RR here now that I see it, part of reasons to not chase options/swings and let it come to me, but trade is there and I will stick with it.

Because of my bad positioning I think I need to tighten stop idea. Will stick with intraday data today, if cant hold these levels that it has been holding all day so far, then I am out and will look to reset the trade much lower at its prev hi/bo level. 

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SPY sold off all day, and we held strong all day.

Made big range, got super tight, starting to see move higher as market/internals have found some strength again, maybe time for us to make a move here. 

Added here on move higher. Stop for both will be close under this range ~45.30.

Held on all day, SPY close very weak, we closed above HTF levels, still not quite above 46. Will hold.

Stop for tomorrow will be hold under 45.30

2nd day

Market sold off, at open we lost it pretty good, but held on during sell for the whole sell period.

Also broke big TL from ATH and coiling just under it, might be case to add more.

And did add. Made 2 hour long range above HTF zone, under prev hi, right at HTF TL, and market recovering very well. Great spot and options also seeing some action, looks great for new ATH this week. 

Ripped a couple points to new ATH. Day will end with above avg vol, it looks like im going to hold before taking any profit. Options saw same vol as yesterday, lots of green. Calls only hit $2, not $2.50

Plan is to take profit on a gap up tomorrow if its there. If not, will take on weakness at open. This name is a crazy runner, if it wants to start again like the overall market is looking like it wants to start up again. I think we got a great chance for a runner. 

Really is not much to tell how far this can go other than checking fibs.

Minor fib measured move at                  49.80 

Bigger, more relevant fib move 1.5 at    51.30

1.618 at                                                   52.20

2.618 minor fib at                                   52.80

3x MM from minor fib                           54.70

2x major fib MM                                    55

I think 55 would be ideal and expectable given what this stock is doing. 

Closed a decent ways under HOD, but well above vwap, no deep retrace. Banks seem v strong, super tight, this ones the leader, others may follow soon if market gets strong again.

Take 1 off at open if weak sell

Take 1 off at open if big gap up and any pb

Take all off if lose and hold under 47.

3rd day

Open was not strong. took 1 off. 

Turned out very strong day. Big checkmark, trended higher all day. Still holding. No reason to consider exiting anything yet. There is a nice TL channel we are running in. Will have to judge exit depending what happens if we lose it. Still holding to 55.

4th day

Market sold off to start the day. Made it super hard to see reasons to hold. We lost TL and pulled in to reclaim it, but rolled over again. Took off 1. Letting last one ride until main BO is lost. 

Hold under 47 all out. 

Hit the minor fib MM at 49.80 and found some R there, but kept going. 

Closed near highs. Hold. 

5th

Pullback day. Didnt break prev low, normal. Holding still, will wait for pb if it happens here. 

6th

Sideways, edge to upside all day. Basing out, based on past history, certainly can go more. Holding. 

7th day

Big pull day. Got to just under ATH and sold off all day. Will be all out if cant hold above 47.50

8th day

solid bounce. Starting to make new range, hopefully see big pop again and trend up still. Clear stop out under prev low.

9th

Held ok again. Sold off all day pretty much but held higher ultimately. Stop still hold under 47.50

10th

I added. Made tight range high just under 3day range high, broke above, got in feb call 60. Looking for this trend in finance to continue.

Near end of day, started testing under vwap and saw huge vol increase as we failed to drop lower. Overall bank names very strong with context.

Then dumped before the bell, there is clear level here to hold above from today and thursday. As long as we stay above 48.50 ill hold. Though it is turning into a failed breakout. BUT theres also a nice TL for S, and financial strong so will hold. 

Weak at open, sold it all off for small loss. Maybe re entry.