FB Swing
FB looking great down here. Market pulling in some, FB holding this area very nicely. SPY maybe sideways/pulling in, but QQQs holding nice levels maybe we got more in the tank. Either way were setting up for a v nice RR trade here and if bulls want to keep ripping higher like they have been FANG/FB seems to be in a great spot to get started again and potentially breakout of this few month long range they have been stuck in
Excellent long term anchored vwaps, vol increase as we are holding this area. Weekly MAs also caught up supporting and tight.
Options looking great. Including the biggest bet ive seen by far at 25mil. (Hes currently down 7mil)
Entry:
Breaking prev hi and holding / breaking aggressively.
Stop:
Close under 273.50
Expectations:
For starters the market needs to help out. If we continue dumping its probably not going to get to where I want it. Getting above 280 is going to be the big deal, if we can do that, there is nothing in the way other than previous pivot points.
As long as market can remain strong, or FB and FANG have relative strength and vol coming in above avg, we will look good for a break higher.
Profit Target:
I want to see us break out above 297 before I start taking off.
Option:
Jan 15 315
Strong recovery after weak open. Got above prev hi and zone and retraced to prev hi making falling wedge. Once hit bottom TL, ripped higher and that was my in.
Once PT hit Just under 300, contract should be around ~5$
Ended up making really nice downtrend channel with clear spots for adding. Added twice. Once on TL break and again on 276 reclaim break.
Made big triangle, failed multiple breaks lower into vwap, clear buying. Made break higher with big vol, added again.
As long as market is long and strong and internals are showing good signs, which they all are, and the stock hasnt done anything wrong, and still coiling giving good signals around my entry, I have no problem adding as many times as it will let me.
FOMC came out. Market took a dump. Waiting to see if we recover. I will be out if we look like well close under 273.
If FB doesnt improve soon and get back above vwap, ill cut the adds and keep 1 on. So far its relatively weak since news. QQQ/SPY recovering ok. FB lagging.
Overall pretty unimpressive. Added a bunch as it held, but also failed a lot of breakouts and attempts to move higher, with market strength. I ended up bailing on 2 contracts, still holding 2, towards the close as it was losing vwap. Did end up closing above and also a new 4day close hi which i guess is something, still holding above TL and some anch vwap. Will need to see strength again to add more if its there. For starters, need to hold above 278/280/prev hi and ill look to add again.
2nd day
Very strong start to day. Then we lost it with market. Came down under huge zone and then minor zone as well. We found a lot of support and volume supporting just under 277 and couldnt quite break and stick below. Once we do I am out.
I added twice to this trade as the market made signs it looked strong again ready for moves higher and was holding levels. And each time it failed and dropped but found more vol and S lower at other levels.
Seeing big vol increase still, must be lots of quiet buying, I see tape is a lot of red but were not going anywhere. If we start moving higher from here I will add more and use this are as stop. Market is slowly shifting to stronger.
Nice TL break, clear bottom pattern. QQQ also at TL break, interns trending higher, SPY weak under vwap. Might be a failed break higher here, if not am adding.
SPY failed TL break and to hold above vwap, dumped. QQQ did not follow neither did internals.
Until the QQQs led the downmove themselves. Now FB failed TL break and making new LOD, have to wait for pb to see if we can hold still. Internals are not showing any weakness atm.
And we collapse some more, but FB still held strong. Big vol increase as we failed breakdown again and broke higher from wedge. Might get an add here, SPY at ATH leevl and bouncing.
And we bounced and I added.
It feels like a shakeout trap out here. In all names. AMZN doing the same thing but a bit weaker. But also seeing big vol increase on its way up. This dip is being bought.
Just. Kept. Coiling. High vol, long range, market turned up, internals v strong. QQQs above vwap, clear range break for entry. Ill have another add if it can get there.
Well sadly, despite the market reclaiming vwap and moving higher, FB decided to dump to new LOD. Have to wait on pb to get out. Sad even after all the relative strength and big buys
And again, as QQQ pulling back lower, FB finding strong buying at prev close. Been dip buyers all day. I will hold through if we can sit above 277. That is where ill be out if we cant.
Well this has been a mess. Every single breakout higher failed. Made tons of buy the dip patterns, falling wedges. Could not hold a damn thing. Market strength made no difference FB refuses to close above 276 and get out of this ugly structure.
It just kept going. Thought towards the close we might see a real nice short squeeze I could get out on, nope just got even worse. Even as market ripped higher again, nothing. Will re enter this when the time comes.
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